‘SAME AS WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION’: In his nightly video address, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Russia of mining Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant upriver from Kherson with the intent of blowing the dam to flood a large area of southern Ukraine as its troops are forced to withdraw from the region.
“Destroying the dam would mean a large-scale disaster,” Zelensky said, pointing out that the loss of the dam would also effectively cut off Ukraine’s ability to provide water to Russian-occupied Crimea to the south. “If Russia is preparing such a terrorist attack, if it is seriously considering such a scenario, it means the terrorists are clearly aware that they will not be able to keep not only Kherson but also the entire south of our country, including Crimea.”
Zelensky called for a “preventive response” to deter Russia from inflicting what would be a humanitarian crisis on the civilian population and could also deprive the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station of the water needed to cool its reactors.
“We must now all together — all Europeans, all world leaders, all international organizations — make it clear to the terrorist state that such a terrorist attack on the Kakhovka HPP will mean exactly the same as the use of weapons of mass destruction,” he said. “The consequences for Russia should be corresponding.”
ISW: RUSSIA PREPARING ‘FALSE FLAG ATTACK’: The latest campaign assessment from the Institute for the Study of War said Russia is likely planning to blame destruction of the dam on Ukraine in a “false flag” operation.
“Russian sources are likely setting information conditions for Russian forces to blow the dam after they withdraw from western Kherson Oblast and accuse Ukrainian forces of flooding the Dnipro River and surrounding settlements, partially in an attempt to cover their retreat further into eastern Kherson Oblast,” said the ISW. “Continued Russian preparation for a false flag attack on the Kakhovka HPP is also likely meant to distract from reports of Russian losses in Kherson Oblast.”
The dam at the Kakhovka hydroelectric plant holds over 4.75 billion liquid gallons of water, which, if released, “would cause massive and rapid flooding of settlements along the Dnipro River, including Kherson City,” the ISW projected. “Russian sources, however, continued to accuse Ukrainian forces of shelling the Kakhovka HPP and have widely circulated graphics depicting the flood path in the event of a dam breach.”
RUSSIA PREPARES FOR FULL RETREAT FROM WEST BANK: The Ukrainian service of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty is reporting that Russian forces are moving military equipment from the west bank to the east bank of the Dnipro River in the face of recent Ukrainian advances.
It posted a photo and analyzed a video from social media that shows a Russian cargo ferry traveling across the Dnipro River.
“The ferry appears to be part of an ongoing Russian pullback of soldiers and equipment from the right bank of the [Dnipro] River, in the southern Kherson region, where Ukrainian forces have been making gradual advances,” reported Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.
“Russian forces are likely setting conditions to remove military and occupation elements from the west bank of the Dnipro River in anticipation of imminent Ukrainian advances,” said the ISW. “These reports indicate that Russian troops are likely deliberately removing large amounts of personnel and equipment from the west bank of the Dnipro River. Russian forces have likely learned, at least in part, from their failures during the panicked Russian retreat from Kharkiv Oblast in the face of a previous Ukrainian counteroffensive.”
BIDEN SLAMS GOP FOR WANTING TO SCALE DOWN UKRAINE AID
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HAPPENING TODAY: The United Nations Security Council is scheduled to vote today on a resolution that would demand an immediate end to violence and criminal activity in Haiti as the world body also considers international intervention in Haiti to open up aid corridors and free up a main fuel terminal that has been taken over by armed gangs.
The United States and Mexico have drafted two resolutions. The first, which is up for a vote today, would impose financial sanctions on criminal actors, including people blocking Haiti’s ports and the delivery of humanitarian assistance.
The second would authorize a non-U.N. international security assistance mission to help improve the security situation,” said U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Linda Thomas-Greenfield earlier this week. “This resolution will propose a limited, carefully scoped, non-U.N. mission led by a partner country with the deep, necessary experience required for such an effort to be effective.”
Both Russia and China have expressed reservations about sending a foreign armed force to Haiti, but Thomas-Greenfield said, “This is the moment for this council, and the world, to step up.”
“THEY CAN LIE TO THE WORLD, BUT THEY CAN’T HIDE THE FACTS’: After a few days of hedging, the White House and the Pentagon now can say definitively that Iran has troops in Crimea helping Russian forces launch drone attacks against Ukrainian targets to the north.
“We can confirm that Russian military personnel that are based in Crimea have been piloting Iranian UAVs, using them to conduct strikes across Ukraine, including strikes against Kyiv in just recent days,” said John Kirby, National Security Council coordinator, at an afternoon briefing.
“There is extensive proof of their use by Russia against both military and civilian targets there, yet both Iran and Russia continue to lie about it, denying that Iran was providing weapons to Russia for use in Ukraine,” said Kirby. “They can lie to the world, but they certainly can’t hide the facts, and the fact is this: Tehran is now directly engaged on the ground and through the provision of weapons that … are killing civilians and destroying civilian infrastructure in Ukraine.”
Given intelligence assessments that Russia is running low on precision weapons, Kirby said the U.S. is concerned that Iran will soon be supplying Russia with advanced conventional weapons, including surface-to-surface missiles.
“The United States is going to pursue all means to expose, deter, and confront Iran’s provision of these munitions against the Ukrainian people,” said Kirby. “We’re going to continue to vigorously enforce all U.S. sanctions on both the Russian and Iranian arms trade. We’re going to make it harder for Iran to sell these weapons to Russia.”
US HAS ‘ABUNDANT EVIDENCE’ RUSSIA IS USING IRANIAN DRONES
PENTAGON TO GRANT LEAVE, FUND TRAVEL FOR ABORTIONS: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has issued a number of new orders intended to make it easier for women in the military to travel to obtain abortions, to protect their privacy, as well as for military doctors to obtain certifications in states with fewer limits on abortion.
In a memo issued yesterday, Austin said the changes were made necessary by the recent Supreme Court decision that overturned the national right to abortion.
“The practical effects of recent changes are that significant numbers of service members and their families may be forced to travel greater distances, take more time off from work, and pay more out of pocket expenses to receive reproductive health care,” he wrote. “In my judgment, such effects qualify as unusual, extraordinary, hardship, or emergency circumstances for service members and their dependents.”
Under the new policy, military members and dependents who need to travel to obtain an abortion will be reimbursed for transportation expenses, and additional leave will be granted so they don’t have to use vacation time or sick leave.
AUSTIN ANNOUNCES MILITARY WILL PAY FOR TRAVEL TO OBTAIN ABORTIONS
INDUSTRY WATCH: Last month, Northrop Grumman announced it would roll out the first B-21 Raider long-range stealth bomber the first week of December. Now it’s set for Dec. 2.
It’s the first new bomber the U.S. has produced in three decades and is expected to look similar to the B-2 Spirit, which was built in the 1990s.
“The B-21 Raider will provide our nation with a formidable combat capability that can be deployed across a range of operations in the highly contested environments of the future,” said Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder, Pentagon press secretary. “The B-21 is a long-range, highly survivable, penetrating strike stealth bomber that will incrementally replace the B-1 and B-2 bomber aircraft, becoming the backbone of the U.S. Air Force bomber fleet.”
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Biden slams GOP for wanting to scale down Ukraine aid
Washington Examiner: ‘Inappropriate for us to speculate’: Pentagon downplays midterm impact on Ukraine aid
Washington Examiner: US has ‘abundant evidence’ Russia is using Iranian drones
Washington Examiner: Iranian personnel were in Crimea training Russia on use of drones: White House
Washington Examiner: China’s leader-for-life, and America’s diminished military, raise risk of war over Taiwan
Washington Examiner: Austin announces military will pay for travel to obtain abortions
Washington Examiner: Military suicide rate among active forces has ‘gradual’ increase over past decade
Washington Examiner: TikTok parent company planned to use app to surveil US citizens: Report
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Liz Truss is gone — who can repair the sinking Conservative Party ship?
New York Times: How Taiwan’s ‘Adorable’ and Ambitious Diplomacy Aims to Keep the Island Safe
Wall Street Journal: China’s Military Catches Up
New York Times: ‘It Was Horror’: Ukrainians Share Grim Tales of Russian Occupation
AP: General who led Syrian bombing is new face of Russian war
Washington Post: Ukraine improvises with aging air defenses
Politico: Ukraine In Direct Contact With Musk Amid Starlink Drama
AP: Russian threats revive old nuclear fears in central Europe
Air & Space Forces Magazine: First B-21 Bomber to Roll Out of Northrop Grumman’s Palmdale, Calif., Plant on Dec. 2
19fortyfive.com: B-21: How the Raider Stealth Bomber Could Change Everything
Air & Space Forces Magazine: F-35A Crashes at Hill AFB; Pilot Safely Ejects
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Report: Better Space Situational Awareness Needed to Mitigate Future Debris Risk
Defense News: Space Force May Seek Commercial Fleet to Augment Wartime Needs
The Drive: First Production AW609 Tiltrotor Finally Flies After Decades of Development
Washington Post: Below the surface in the Australia sub deal
Bloomberg: Russia’s War Has Revived Arctic Rivalry In A Setback For Climate
Reuters: U.S. Diplomat Sherman To Discuss N.Korea, China, Taiwan In Tokyo Visit
19fortyfive.com: China’s Nightmare: What If the U.S. Military Sent Troops to Taiwan?
19fortyfive.com: Is China Preparing to Invade Taiwan?
19fortyfive.com: What Will NATO Do If Russia Uses Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine?
Calendar
FRIDAY | OCTOBER 21
10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion: “Transatlantic Relations,” focusing on the war in Ukraine and foreign policy priorities, with French Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs Catherine Colonna https://www.csis.org/events/discussing-transatlantic-relations
TUESDAY | OCTOBER 25
8:30 a.m. 1700 Army Navy Dr., Arlington, Virginia — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies first annual Spacepower Security Forum with Gen. David Thompson, vice chief of space operations; Lt. Gen. Stephen Whiting, commander, Space Operations Command; Air Commodore John Haly, air and space attache, Australian Defense Staff; Air Commodore Jeremy Attridge, U.K. air and space attache to the U.S.; Derek Tournear, director, Space Development Agency; and retired Air Force Gen. Kevin Chilton, former commander, U.S. Strategic Command https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/event
WEDNESDAY | OCTOBER 26
8:15 a.m. Brussels, Belgium — NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg press conference with Romanian Prime Minister Nicolae Ciuca at NATO Headquarters
FRIDAY | OCTOBER 28
11 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual conversation: “DHS Cyber Priorities for the Coming Year,” with Rob Silvers, undersecretary for policy, Department of Homeland Security; and Suzanne Spaulding, senior adviser, homeland security, CSIS International Security Program https://www.csis.org/events/dhs-cyber-priorities-coming-year
FRIDAY | NOVEMBER 18
TBA Halifax, Nova Scotia — 2022 Halifax International Security Forum with more than 300 participants from more than 60 countries across six continents helping to shape strategic thinking leading into 2023. Attendees from the U.S. include Sen. Jim Risch (R-ID), ranking member, Senate Foreign Relations Committee; Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH); Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY); Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS), Sen. Chris Coons (D-DE), and Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) https://halifaxtheforum.org
FRIDAY | DECEMBER 2
TBA Simi Valley, California — Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute annual Reagan National Defense Forum https://www.reaganfoundation.org/reagan-institute
THURSDAY | DECEMBER 8
TBA — Aspen Strategy Group’s “Aspen Security Forum: D.C. Edition” https://web.cvent.com/event/
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“I am committed to the Department taking all appropriate action, within its authority and consistent with applicable federal law, as soon as possible to ensure that our service members and their families can access reproductive health care and our health care providers can operate effectively.”
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, in a memo outlining new policy to fund travel for members of the military and their dependents to obtain abortions
