The career trajectory of the Democratic party’s newest progressive hope, Georgia gubernatorial nominee Stacey Abrams, may have ticked upward about a month ago, when one of her potential Republican foes in the governor’s race started releasing the sorts of campaign commercials that deprive satirists of work. One of the ads features the candidate, secretary of state Brian Kemp, polishing a shotgun while quizzing a young man on what he must show to receive permission to date one of his daughters. If you guessed “respect,” you’re on the right track. If you also guessed “a healthy appreciation for the Second Amendment,” you’re aware that it’s election season.
The press, which has a healthy appreciation itself nowadays for its First Amendment right to lose its mind, went off. Multiple outlets conveyed in their reporting about the backlash that it looked like Kemp was pointing his weapon “at” the kid on camera. So the campaign released a second commercial that plays part of the first commercial filmed from a different angle, which reveals Kemp directing the gun something like 30 degrees away from the guy. “See that? Either the liberal media doesn’t have a clue how to aim. Or they only aim at conservatives. Stand up to the Fake News Machine,” the ad concludes.
And thus it was that Kemp, 55, stood apart from the crowd. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution wrote in May 2017 that his “official announcement practically oozed Trump-ian themes,” on issues such as immigration. But it wasn’t until May 2018 that he started cutting commercials in which he says things like “I’ve got a big truck (a silver-and-white F-350), just in case I need to round up criminal illegals and take them home myself.”
In a GOP primary with a clear favorite, the meat-and-potatoes conservative Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle, Kemp was the only challenger in a group of three who could force the primary to a runoff talking quite like this. Hunter Hill, a former state senator endorsed by Sen. Ted Cruz , emphasized his military service and economic conservatism. Clay Tippins, an Atlanta-area businessman, tacked moderate relative to the competition. On Tuesday night, Kemp finished ahead of both of them, earning 25.5 percent and keeping Cagle to 38.9 percent, below the 50 percent threshold needed to win the nomination outright. The two men will square off on July 24.
Had a candidate like Hill been the runner-up, there wouldn’t be much risk of the runoff’s tone going off the rails the next eight weeks. With Kemp, however, there’s significant risk. Cagle already signaled to the right once during the primary, when he helped block a tax break that would benefit Atlanta-based Delta over its discontinuation of discounts for NRA members. If Kemp forces the runoff further in that direction, it could lead to a familiar sight this campaign cycle all over the country: primary candidates one-upping each other, the type of competition that gives general election opponents fodder.
That’d play into the hands of Abrams, 44, the former Georgia House minority leader and first black female gubernatorial nominee from the two major parties, who romped to the Democratic nomination with 76.5 percent of the vote. Like congressional candidates Jon Ossoff and Doug Jones, Abrams has received national attention and endorsements from prominent progressives, including possible presidential candidates Cory Booker and Kamala Harris. But distinct from Ossoff and Jones, Abrams is running aggressively left-of-center. A campaign strategy memo published by the Journal-Constitution in February outlined how she would attack her primary opponent, fellow state lawmaker Stacey Evans, for being too far to the right on the Second Amendment and education, and for aligning with conservatives on the “Republican Culture Wars.”
Rather than go the traditional route for a Southern Democrat of appealing to the center and across the aisle for some votes, Abrams is trying to turn out a base of nonwhite and liberal voters larger than the Republican electorate that goes to the polls in November. “The approach of trying to create a coalition that is centered around converting Republicans has failed Democrats in the state of Georgia for the last 15 years,” she told the New York Times.
The chances of this being a winning strategy are higher if the Republican nominee steps in it. Georgia is still majority white, if only by a little, and it is unproven as hospitable turf for a progressive statewide. Election analysts rate the race as likely or solidly Republican. And Cagle’s boss, Gov. Nathan Deal, has run a reasonably popular administration, reflected in polling from this year. Cagle, ostensibly the favorite in the runoff, led Abrams 46 percent to 41 percent in a survey taken this month. Most signs indicate the race is the Republicans’ to lose.
But lose it they could. Without reading too much into vote totals, Abrams seems to be working with an energized electorate: She received 423,163 votes of more than 553,000 cast in the primary. The last Georgia Democrat to be hyped for statewide office during a non-presidential year, 2014 Senate candidate Michelle Nunn, received 245,969 votes of about just 330,000 cast. (Republican primary turnout remained roughly steady—there were about 600,000 ballots cast for GOP statewide officials each year.)
If left-leaning voters really are sparked and Abrams has found a way to organize them, the two-month runoff between Cagle and Kemp could be a decisive test of restraint for Georgia Republicans—helping determine if a much-hyped Democratic star can continue her climb to the forefront of national politics.
