A HUGE SIGH OF RELIEF: That giant exhaling sound coming from the Pentagon this morning is the huge collective sigh of relief over the news that the Trump administration and Republicans were able to reach a $1.3 trillion deal with Democrats to avert what every military leader warned was looming disaster: a short term continuing resolution that would not only freeze spending, but also trigger a return to mandatory cuts known as sequestration.
The two year-deal effectively ends the specter of sequestration mandated by the Budget Control Act of 2011, which expires in 2021. “Anybody who served in business will tell you that steady, predictable funding is the key to success,” Defense Secretary-nominee Mark Esper testified at his Senate confirmation hearing last week. “Because you can manage your workforce, you can organize how you work in ways that are far more efficient than looking at inconsistent and unpredictable funding coming your way.”
Asked on a scale of 1 to 10 how important a deal would be, Esper said “11.”
“We cannot underestimate the incredible benefit of funding our troops on time for the second year in a row, something Congress hasn’t done in recent memory,” said Texas Republican Mac Thornberry, ranking member of the House Armed Services Committee. “By doing so, we will potentially save billions by avoiding wasteful stopgap measures. For those reasons, this agreement has my strong support and I urge all of my colleagues to vote for it.”
‘NO POISON PILLS’: The deal was announced on twitter by President Trump, followed quickly by a joint statement from the top congressional Democrats. “I am pleased to announce that a deal has been struck with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy – on a two-year Budget and Debt Ceiling, with no poison pills,” Trump tweeted. “This was a real compromise in order to give another big victory to our Great Military and Vets!”
Pelosi and Schumer said the deal “will enhance our national security and invest in middle class priorities that advance the health, financial security and well-being of the American people, while McCarthy said, “While this deal is not perfect, compromise is necessary in divided government.”
THE DEAL: The bipartisan compromise includes something for both sides. Democrats get their demands for commensurate increases in non-defense spending, which will exceed the increase in defense spending by $10 billion over the two years, and will average 4% in 2020.
The Pentagon topline for FY 2020 will be $738 billion, a 3% hike, which is closer to the $733 billion in the House version of the National Defense Authorization Act than the Senate version, which called for $750 billion in defense spending for next year. Under the deal, the Pentagon’s budget would go up another $2.5 billion in 2021.
The agreement would also suspend the debt ceiling until July 31, 2021, which avoids the threat of a government default.
“While I am disappointed that the topline total for defense funding is not $750 billion — the amount recommended by the nonpartisan National Defense Strategy Commission report, requested in President Trump’s budget and authorized with a bipartisan Senate vote — I am relieved to see a defense topline that exceeds what the House Democrats wanted to provide,” said Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Jim Inhofe. “This is absolutely critical as we rebuild and modernize our military to meet the needs of a nation increasingly at risk.”
Good Tuesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Kelly Jane Torrance (@kjtorrance). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.
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HAPPENING TODAY: It’s coming down to the wire for the Senate to confirm Mark Esper as defense secretary in time to hold a hearing for David Norquist as deputy defense secretary as tentatively scheduled for tomorrow morning. Yesterday the Senate voted 85 to 6 to invoke cloture, which ends debate and clears the way for a vote today.
This morning Richard Spencer remains acting defense secretary, and as such is scheduled to attend the interment of former Supreme Court Justice John Paul Stevens at Arlington National Cemetery, at 10 a.m.
Meanwhile the Senate Armed Services Committee has scheduled for next week a hearing for Vice Adm. Michael Gilday to be Chief of Naval Operations, after the previous confirmed candidate, Adm. William Moran, was forced to step aside over questions about his judgment. Gilday’s confirmation hearing is set for 9:30 a.m. July 30.
ALSO TODAY: Britain’s Conservative Party has selected its new prime minister, Boris Johnson, who handily beat Jeremy Hunt, the current foreign minister. Johnson is a populist more in the mold of Trump.
Johnson has promised to deliver the Brexit deal that Theresa May failed to get through the British parliament, but his first task will be to decide how to respond to Iran’s seizure of a British-flagged oil tanker in the Persian Gulf. The new PM will take over tomorrow.
Hunt has called on European nations to form a joint protection force, rather than join the U.S. “maximum pressure” campaign.
READY FOR THE WORST: As he sat down for talks with Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan at the White House yesterday, Trump unleashed a string of threats aimed at Iran, which he called a “very mixed-up country,” that doesn’t “know whether they’re coming or going.”
“Let’s see what happens with Iran. We are ready for the absolute worst and we’re ready for sense, too, but we are very geared up,” Trump said, “Frankly, it’s getting harder for me to want to make a deal with Iran because they behave very badly. They’re saying bad things, and I’ll tell you it could go either way very easily. Very easily. And I’m OK either way it goes.”
DOWNED DRONE: Trump also accused Iran of lying about the small surveillance drone that was brought down last week by a high-tech jammer on board the USS Boxer.
“Instead of saying yes that happened, they lied. They say it didn’t happen,” Trump said. “There’s a lot of proof. It’s called take a look at it on the ocean floor. Just go down there, take your scuba gear and go down there — one of you would do that, I know. But we took down a drone.”
The drone was downed by a new weapon called Marine Air Defense Integrated System, which was mounted on a Marine Corps vehicle at the bow of the ship.
DISPUTES IRAN’S CIA CLAIM: Iran said Monday that its intelligence forces had broken up an elaborate U.S. spy ring, in which 17 Iranians were accused of spying for the CIA, and some sentenced to death.
“That’s totally a false story. That’s another lie. They put out propaganda,” Trump said.
AVOIDING 10 MILLION DEATHS IN AFGHANISTAN: Before his meeting with Khan, Trump asserted he could end the war in Afghanistan in a week if he wanted to but he would have to wipe out more than a quarter of the country’s population.
“I don’t want to kill 10 million people. I have plans on Afghanistan, that if I wanted to win that war, Afghanistan would be wiped off the face of the Earth. It would be gone. It would be over in — literally, in 10 days, and I don’t want to do — I don’t want to go that route,” he said.
Trump credited Pakistan with helping to exert pressure on the Taliban to make a peace deal, and hinted that he could soon withdrawn more U.S. troops from Afghanistan. “I think Pakistan’s going to help us out to extricate ourselves. We’re like policemen. We’re not fighting a war,” Trump said.
NEXT STEP — AFGHAN-AFGHAN TALKS: Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation Zalmay Khalilzad is trying to start the next step in the peace process, so-called “intra-Afghan negotiations,” in which the Taliban is supposed to deal directly with the Afghan government.
“I’m arriving in Kabul today, focused on achieving an enduring peace that ends the war, ensures terrorists do not use Afghanistan to threaten the US, honors the sacrifices that US, our allies & Afghans made, and cements an enduring relationship w/ Afghanistan,” tweeted Khalilzad, citing Trump’s meeting with Khan. “@POTUS reiterated to the world that there is no reasonable military solution to the war in Afghanistan, & that peace must be achieved through a political settlement. Pakistan committed to do all it can to achieve peace.’
NO NORTH KOREA TALKS YET: Trump also said yesterday that despite his historic meeting with Kim Jong Un in the DMZ last month, there have been no new working-level talks about denuclearization scheduled.
“No, we just have a very good relationship, and probably they would like to meet. And we’ll see what happens,” he said. “When they’re ready, we’ll be ready.”
RUSSIAN VIOLATION: South Korea is reporting that a Russian A-50 early warning and control aircraft violated entered South Korean airspace today, prompting South Korean warplanes to fire warning shots, according to the Yonhap News Agency.
“This marked the first time that a foreign military plane has violated Korea’s territorial sky and South Korea fired warning shots in response,” Yonhap reported.
HE KNOWS PEOPLE: In his praise for Pakistan’s new leader, Trump fell back on a comfortable talking point, his personal experience with other Pakistanis he knows.
“They’re great people. I have many friends from Pakistan. Living in New York, I have a lot of Pakistani friends, I will tell you that. And they’re great people. Smart, tough. They are tough, there’s no question about that. They’re like him, they’re tough,” Trump said.
Sound familiar? Last month he said something similar about Iranians. “Just so you know, I come from New York City. In New York City, we have a lot of Iranians and they are great people,” Trump said June 22. “I have friends who are Iranians, many friends. Living in New York City, you meet many Iranians. They’re very smart, they’re very ambitious and they have tremendous — they’re high quality people.”
QUICK FACT CHECK: Trump said two things yesterday that prompted quick fact check.
1. “We’ve been there for 19 years, in Afghanistan. It’s ridiculous.” Actually the U.S. entered Afghanistan in October 2001, one month after the Sept. 11 attacks, which means as of today the U.S. has been there for 17 years, 9 months.
2. “We have a new aircraft carrier coming on-line. It’s the largest ship in the world. It’s so large that maybe I could even land a plane on top of it, OK? But it’s a big — it’s a big one. President Gerald Ford. It’s a phenomenal — It’s a phenomenal ship.” We checked with the U.S. Navy and Trump is correct. It is in fact possible to land a plane on the deck of the new USS Gerald R. Ford. And the Navy also confirms it is “a phenomenal ship.”
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: NORTHCOM commander warns the Arctic is an ‘avenue of approach’ for Russia
New York Times: Britain, Still Wrangling With Iran Over Tanker, Rejects U.S. Approach
AP: UK: Europe-Led Mission Will Protect Vital Shipping In Persian Gulf
Reuters: Ships Urged To Alert Navies Before Sailing Through Strait Of Hormuz
Washington Post: Documents: N. Korea Quietly Got Huawei Help
Wall Street Journal: U.S. Imposes New Sanctions On Chinese Company For Transporting Iranian Oil
AP: Duterte: Can’t stop China in disputed seas, won’t risk clash
The Diplomat: China To Release New White Paper On National Defense: What To Expect
Washington Examiner: US general: Cartels are using migrants to distract from drug smuggling at the border
New York Times: Kim Jong-Un Inspects New Submarine That Could Increase Range Of Missiles
Defense News: Russia’s S-400: An Offer U.S. Partners Should Refuse
New York Times: With Guns, Cash And Terrorism, Gulf States Vie For Power In Somalia
ABC New England: Model-maker lands billion-dollar defence clients from his regional NSW workshop
Calendar
TUESDAY | JULY 23
10 a.m. 2301 Constitution Avenue N.W. United States Institute of Peace discussion with Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan. Livestream at www.usip.org/events
12 p.m. Business Council for International Understanding briefing with Michael Mulroy, deputy assistant Defense secretary for the Middle East. www.bciu.org/events/upcoming-events
2 p.m. 1333 H Street N.W. Center for American Progress conversation with Rep. Adam Schiff D-Calif., chairman of the U.S. House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, on the findings of the Mueller investigation and efforts underway to help protect the 2020 election. www.americanprogress.org/events
5:30 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion on “Security and Foreign Policy in Campaign 2020,” with Helene Cooper, Pentagon correspondent at the New York Times; Susan Glasser, staff writer at the New Yorker; Jennifer Griffin, national security correspondent for Fox News; and Lara Seligman, Pentagon correspondent for Foreign Policy. www.csis.org
WEDNESDAY | JULY 24
8 a.m. 2044 Rayburn Marine Corps Commandant Gen. David Berger speaks off the record to Navy League of the United States and the Shipbuilders Council of America annual Shipbuilding Caucus breakfast event.
8:30 a.m. 300 First Street S.E. Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies breakfast forum on “A Review of the Nuclear Posture Review, National Security Strategy, and Nuclear Deterrence,” with Air Force Vice Chief of Staff Gen. Stephen Wilson. www.mitchellaerospacepower.org/events
9 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. Center for Strategic and International Studies ninth annual South China Sea Conference, with retired Adm. Scott Swift, former commander, U.S. Pacific Fleet, and others. www.csis.org/events
10 a.m. SD-G50, Dirksen Senate Armed Services Committee confirmation hearing on expected nomination of David Norquist to be deputy secretary of defense. www.armed-services.senate.gov
12 noon 1201 Pennsylvania Avenue N.W. Hudson Institute event: “Dialogues on American Foreign Policy and World Affairs: A Conversation with U.S. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse,” with Walter Mead, the Hudson Institute. https://www.hudson.org/events
4 p.m. 1521 16th Street N.W. The Institute of World Politics lecture on “Artificial Intelligence Initiatives: U.S. and Chinese Strategies,” with Defense Undersecretary for Intelligence Fritz Barth. www.iwp.edu/events
THURSDAY | JULY 25
8:30 a.m. 300 First Street S.E. Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies forum on “Nuclear and Missile Proliferation: Iran and North Korea,” with Rep. Mike Turner, R-Ohio www.mitchellaerospacepower.org/events
FRIDAY | JULY 26
4 a.m EDT/10 a.m CET Patch Barracks, Stuttgart, Germany. U.S. Africa Command change of command ceremony where Army Gen. Stephen Townsend assumes command from retiring Marine Gen. Thomas Waldhauser. The defense secretary is scheduled to preside over the ceremony.
8:15 a.m. American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research discussion on “The value of our veterans” about reforming the Veterans Affairs Department. Speakers: Rep. Mike Levin, D-Calif.; Rep. Brad Wenstrup, R-Ohio; Leo Shane, Capitol Hill and White House bureau chief at Military Times; Cynthia Gilman, senior vice president for strategic initiatives at the Henry M. Jackson Foundation for the Advancement of Military Medicine; Mike Hutchings, chief development officer at Combined Arms; Rory Riley-Topping, founder of Riley-Topping Consulting; and Rebecca Burgess, director of the AEI Program on American Citizenship
8:30 a.m. 2101 Wilson Blvd. National Defense Industrial Association discussion on “DevOps in the Defense Intelligence Information Enterprise,” with Lt. Cmdr. Gregory Contreras, program manager for defense intelligence information enterprise framework at the Naval Information Warfare Center Atlantic.
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“We have a new aircraft carrier coming on-line. It’s the largest ship in the world. It’s so large that maybe I could even land a plane on top of it, OK? But it’s a big — it’s a big one. President Gerald Ford. It’s a phenomenal — It’s a phenomenal ship.”
President Trump
