As Trump declares victory over ISIS, his top advisers warn ‘it’s not over’

SPIKING THE FOOTBALL: In his interview with the Associated Press Tuesday, President Trump was unabashed in declaring victory — and taking full credit for — vanquishing ISIS. “We’ve done an excellent job. We’ve defeated ISIS. ISIS is defeated in all of the areas that we fought ISIS,” he said, according to a transcript released by AP yesterday. “And that would have never happened under President Obama. In fact, it [was] going the other way.”

The president’s unqualified assessment came on the same day all his top advisers were urging caution about premature pronouncements of success. Brett McGurk, the president’s special envoy to the Defeat-ISIS coalition, made a point of staying the successful strategy that has reduced ISIS fighters to a small pocket of resistance in Syria began under Obama, and accelerated under Trump. “We’ve made a lot of progress in the last four years, made an awful lot of progress in the last two years, in particular,” McGurk told reporters at a roundtable Tuesday. “It’s not over.”

At the Pentagon, coalition spokesman Col. Sean Ryan was cautioning reporters that ISIS was proving to be a resilient enemy, and that “until we achieve an enduring defeat, we will continue the fight.” Defense Secretary Jim Mattis told reporters traveling with him in Asia that the U.S.-backed fighters were “pushing against the last remnants of the geographic caliphate,” and reminded them “We told you it’d be tougher fighting. It is”

WINNING THE PEACE: Even when the last pocket of ISIS in Syria is wiped out, which could take a few more months, the U.S. will be careful not to declare “game over.” “It’s not about winning the war, it’s about winning the peace,” said Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Joseph Dunford, speaking alongside McGurk at Tuesday’s conference on countering violent extremism.

“The solution to violent extremism, and particularly the underlying conditions, is a whole-of-government solution,” Dunford said. “But getting after the underlying conditions — the economy, the education, the legitimate governance — is a broader issue.”

“When the conventional fight ends we’re going to transition to this new phase,” McGurk said. “And that’s really the focus on the stabilization, continued burden-sharing from the coalition, and in Syria making sure the defeat of ISIS is enduring.”

TIME FOR AN INSPECTION TOUR: In that AP interview, Trump said he’s just been too busy to get out to visit troops in the combat zone and hear directly from his commanders in the field how the wars are going. “I will do that at some point, but I don’t think it’s overly necessary,” Trump said. “I’ve been very busy with everything that’s taking place here.”

Trump quickly turned the conversation to one of his favorite subjects: the strength of the U.S. economy, which he called the “greatest economy in the history of our country … the greatest economy we’ve ever had.” And he said just because he hasn’t had time to visit the troops, doesn’t mean he doesn’t have their backs. “Hey, I just got them a pay raise. I haven’t had a pay raise in 11 years. I just got them a substantial pay raise,” he boasted. “They have stuff that was so old that the grandfathers used to fly it. I have done more for the military than any president in many, many years.”

QUICK FACT CHECK: Trump claimed again Wednesday that this year’s pay raise is the first in a decade. “Our great people in the military hadn’t received a wage increase in more than 10 years. Now they’re getting an increase. First time in more than 10 years.”

It’s not true. The U.S. military has received a pay raise every year for 11 years, according to the Pentagon’s own website, which lists the pay raises since 2007. Meanwhile, Trump wants to cancel a federal pay raise for tens of thousands of DoD civilians who work alongside their uniformed counterparts.

AND HE MIGHT CHECK OUT THOSE OTHER WARS: While Syria and Afghanistan grab most of the headlines these days, the Pentagon is quietly hunting and killing terrorists in other wars that are not secret, but aren’t publicized much either. These “quiet” wars are the model for today and going forward, a model where the American people hear less and less about where and how U.S. troops are engaged in dangerous combat. Read more here.

Good Thursday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre), National Security Writer Travis J. Tritten (@travis_tritten) and Senior Editor David Brown (@dave_brown24). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense.

A LITTLE LESS NEXT YEAR: Trump revealed yesterday that his budget request for national defense in fiscal 2020 will be $700 billion, a drop of $16 billion, or 2.3 percent, from the previous year but above the levels of the past few years.

“We know what the new budget is for the Defense Department; it will probably be $700 billion,” Trump told reporters during a Cabinet meeting at which he asked his secretaries to cut their next budget submissions by 5 percent. “So, it was 700, 716, that’s a very substantial number, but it’s defense, it’s very important, to us without defense, maybe the rest of it doesn’t mean very much.”

DEALS WITH THE DEVIL: Trump complained he had to make concessions to the Democrats to get the money needed to rebuild the “depleted” military. “I made deals with the devil in order to get that done,” but now “the military is in the process of being fixed.”

“Planes are being made. Boats are being made. Ships are being made. Missiles, rockets, everything. Our nuclear is being brought to a level that nobody else could even imagine. Pray to God we don’t have to use it. But there will be nothing like what we have, and there is nothing like what we have,” he said.

THE ‘NICKEL PLAN’: And it’s less of a hit than other agencies will get. “I’m going to ask each of you to come back with a 5 percent budget cut from your various departments,” Trump told his Cabinet. “Whether it’s a secretary, an administrator, whatever, I’m going to ask everybody with a 5 percent cut for our next meeting.”

“We’ll call it the nickel plan,” Trump said. “At least it will be a one-year nickel plan. We may do another nickel plan next year, too.”

OUT OF WHACK: In his remarks, Trump made an argument that many critics of U.S. defense spending have made over the years, namely that the U.S. spends more on defense than the next 10 countries combined. “We have $716 billion budgets; Russia has a budget of $68 billion. China has a budget that’s just a small fraction of what we spend,” Trump said. “It’s absolutely ridiculous. And that’s because we protect every country in the world practically. And some of these countries are massively wealthy and they don’t pay us for the protection. It’s crazy.”

HAPPENING TODAY, POMPEO BRIEFS TRUMP: Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is scheduled to meet with Trump this morning to brief the president on his meetings with the Saudis and the Turks over the disappearance of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Despite the smiles and laughter that marked a photo op with Pompeo and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Pompeo is said to have delivered a stern message in private that Saudi Arabia has “a handful of days” to explain why Khashoggi entered the Saudi consulate in Istanbul and never came out again.

“I keep hearing that we’re giving them some benefit of the doubt,” Pompeo told reporters traveling with him as they left Ankara. “It’s not about benefit of the doubt. They’re going to do an investigation, and when the investigation is done we’ll evaluate it.

“It’s reasonable to give them a handful of days more to complete it so they get it right, so that it’s thorough and complete and that’s what they’ve indicated they need,” Pompeo said. “I had a chance to speak to Jamal’s fiancee. Sooner is better than later for everyone.”

GRUESOME DETAILS: Turkish official have described what are said to be audio recordings that prove Khashoggi was brutally tortured and beheaded shortly after he entered the consulate. According to the New York Times, a hit team of 15 Saudi agents, some with ties to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, were waiting for Khashoggi.

“After he was shown into the office of the Saudi consul, Mohammad al-Otaibi, the agents seized Mr. Khashoggi almost immediately and began to beat and torture him, eventually cutting off his fingers,” the Times quoted a senior Turkish official as saying. “Whether Mr. Khashoggi was killed before his fingers were removed and his body dismembered could not be determined.”

Asked yesterday if the U.S. would request a copy of the recording, Trump initially expressed some doubt about whether the reports were accurate. “We have asked for it, if it exists,” he said at a White House session. “I’m not sure yet that it exists. Probably does. Possibly does. I’ll have a full report on that from Mike when he comes back.”

KHASHOGGI’S LAST COLUMN: The Washington Post has posthumously published Khashoggi’s last column, which it says was sent by his translator and assistant the day after he was reported missing in Istanbul. The Post held off publishing it until now with the hope he might still be alive. In the essay, Khashoggi says what the Arab world needs now is freedom of speech.

“There is only one country in the Arab world that has been classified as ‘free.’ That nation is Tunisia. Jordan, Morocco and Kuwait come second, with a classification of ‘partly free.’ The rest of the countries in the Arab world are classified as ‘not free.’ As a result, Arabs living in these countries are either uninformed or misinformed. They are unable to adequately address, much less publicly discuss, matters that affect the region and their day-to-day lives. A state-run narrative dominates the public psyche, and while many do not believe it, a large majority of the population falls victim to this false narrative. Sadly, this situation is unlikely to change.”

REED: CUT YEMEN SUPPORT: The U.S. military should end its refueling support of Saudi warplanes in Yemen no matter where an investigation into the kingdom’s suspected murder of Khashoggi leads, Sen. Jack Reed said yesterday.

“With respect to Yemen, regardless of what is determined about Khashoggi, I think we should terminate the aerial refueling. I don’t think it provides any controls over their behavior and I think what it does is involve us in activities and actions that we can’t control and have no knowledge of, and that’s not a good position for us to be,” Reed said during a breakfast with defense reporters.

SYRIA’S UNOFFICIAL CEASEFIRE: The civil war in Syria is essentially frozen in place because of the deal Turkey worked out with Russia to avoid a massive Syrian government offensive against opposition forces in Idlib province, the State Department’s special representative for Syria said yesterday. “You have essentially a de facto or at least temporary ceasefire throughout the country,” James Jeffrey told reporters in Ankara.

For now, the ceasefire seems to be holding, which could reinvigorate the U.N.-brokered peace process. “So by and large the Russians seem to be willing to continue this, and this is a major step because what it’s done is it has frozen the conflict not only there, but the conflict is also frozen essentially everywhere else.”

U.N. SYRIA ENVOY STEPS DOWN: U.N. Special Representative Staffan de Mistura has announced he’s stepping down for “purely personal reasons,” but will make one more stab at launching a committee to draw up a new Syrian constitution before he leaves.

He told Security Council members that objections by the Syrian government are still holding up the formation of the committee meant to draft a new constitution, according to the AP.

UKRAINE CRASH: U.S. Air Force Lt. Col. Seth “Jethro” Nehring was killed Tuesday while riding in the back seat of a Ukrainian fighter jet that crashed while taking part in an exercise, the military announced on Wednesday. The Ukrainian pilot was also killed.

BEIJING TAKES OFFENSE: China is rebuking Mattis for his denunciation of China’s “predatory economic behavior.” The characterization “is just immoral,” according to Beijing. “The U.S. has fabricated lies time and again and made irresponsible remarks out of its political needs, which is very disappointing,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang told reporters during his press briefing, per the official transcript.

In his comments to reporters en route to Vietnam this week, Mattis referred to China’s notorious Belt and Road Initiative that some critics call “debt-trap diplomacy” because it can burden weaker countries with debt they cannot repay, making them beholden to China.

Mattis said China was engaged in “certainly predatory economic behavior,” where he said “massive debt is piled on countries that fiscal analysis would say they are going to have difficulty, at best, repaying in the smaller countries”

Mattis met today with China’s Minister of National Defence Gen. Wei Fenghe at the ASEAN Defense Ministers meeting in Singapore. No word if this subject came up.

NORTH KOREA INVASION? Ambassador Nikki Haley reportedly used the erratic behavior of her boss to imply Trump was capable of ordering a U.S. invasion of North Korea to secure a new round of sanctions against the regime last year, according to a new report.

Harper’s Magazine reported that Haley raised the possibility of a U.S. invasion by telling a Chinese diplomat, “My boss is kind of unpredictable, and I don’t know what he’ll do.”

THE RUNDOWN

Bloomberg: Air Force Secretary Prepares to Make Her Case for Expansion

Defense One: US Military Leaders Keep Quiet on Saudi Arabia Amid Khashoggi Outrage

Air Force Times: As Tyndall begins recovery, a hard road — and hard questions — lie ahead

AP: Video: Air Force builds temp housing at damaged Fla. base

Politico: Reed calls for international investigation of Khashoggi’s disappearance

Stars and Stripes: Three troops wounded in suicide bombing at Bagram Air Field

Defense News: The first KC-46 delivery is not happening this October as planned

Defense News: Heading into F-35 operational tests, threat of delays loom

Military.com: Navy Super Hornet Catches Fire During Training Flight

Calendar

THURSDAY | OCT. 18

7 a.m. 100 Westgate Circle. 23rd Annual Expeditionary Warfare Conference. ndia.org

8:30 a.m. 929 Long Bridge Drive, Arlington, Va. AIA/NDIA Technical Data Rights Forum. ndia.org

9 a.m. 1030 15th St. N.W. Championing the Frontlines of Freedom: Erasing the “Grey Zone.” atlanticcouncil.org

9 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. How will values shape U.S.-China competition? brookings.edu

Noon. 1030 15th St. N.W. The Role of Advanced Energy in National Security and a Resilient Grid. atlanticcouncil.org

2 p.m. 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Restraining Great Powers: Soft Balancing From Empires to the Global Era. carnegieendowment.org

2:30 p.m. Pentagon Auditorium. Deputy Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan makes remarks at a Medal of Honor Hall of Heroes induction ceremony for retired Marine Sgt. Maj. John L. Canley. Streamed live on www.defense.gov/live.

FRIDAY | OCT. 19

10 a.m. All Geopolitics is Local: How States are Responding to Cyber Threats in the Digital Age with Col. Kenneth Donnelly, Louisiana National Guard, and Maj. Gen. Michael Stone, Michigan Army National Guard. wilsoncenter.org

MONDAY | OCT. 22

4 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. An Evening of Naval History with Ian Toll and an Award Presentation by Adm. John Richardson, Chief of Naval Operations. usni.org

TUESDAY | OCT. 23

7 a.m. 11100 Johns Hopkins Rd. Precision Strike Technology Symposium with Vice Adm. Mat Winter, Director of the Joint Strike Fighter Program; Gen. Mike Murray, Commander of Army Futures Command; and Sen. Lisa Murkowski. ndia.org

7:15 a.m. 1700 Army Navy Dr. NDIA Washington, D.C. Chapter Defense Leaders Forum Breakfast. ndia.org

8 a.m. 2101 Wilson Blvd. S&ET Division Executive Breakfast. ndia.org

1 p.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Who cares? Foreign Policy and the 2018 Midterm Elections. aei.org

5:30 p.m. 2425 Wilson Blvd. ILW Landpower Education Forum. ausa.org

WEDNESDAY | OCT. 24

7 a.m. 11100 Johns Hopkins Rd. Precision Strike Technology Symposium with Steve Walker, Director of DARPA. ndia.org

9 a.m. 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Arab Horizons: Is A New Regional Order Possible? carnegieendowment.org

12:30 p.m. Defense Manufacturing as a Means of Localization in MENA with Tom Kelly is the Vice President of Foreign Policy and National Security Affairs at Raytheon. sais-jhu.edu

1 p.m. 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW. China’s Ballistic Missile Submarines and Strategic Stability. carnegieendowment.org

THURSDAY | OCT. 25

7 a.m. 11100 Johns Hopkins Rd. Precision Strike Technology Symposium. ndia.org

11:30 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. U.S. policy and the war in Yemen. brookings.edu

3:30 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW. Security in Northern Europe: Deterrence, Defense and Dialogue. atlanticcouncil.org

QUOTE OF THE DAY
“Arabs living in these countries are either uninformed or misinformed. They are unable to adequately address, much less publicly discuss, matters that affect the region and their day-to-day lives. A state-run narrative dominates the public psyche, and while many do not believe it, a large majority of the population falls victim to this false narrative. Sadly, this situation is unlikely to change.”
Jamal Khashoggi’s final column in the Washington Post.

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