The House Republican tax bill would raise taxes on 7 percent of taxpayers next year, according to a revised analysis released Wednesday by the Tax Policy Center.
The Washington think tank found that the bill would cut taxes on all income levels on average, providing a 1.6 percent boost in income. But a minority of taxpayers, including middle-income earners, would face tax increases.
The Tax Policy Center's figures largely line up with statistics provided by Congress' own experts. But they are slightly more flattering than calculations the group released Monday, which it had to retract because of an error related to modeling the child tax credit included in the bill.
"TPC is committed to providing the highest-quality information about America’s tax system," Mark Mazur, the group's director, said in a blog post Wednesday. "However, we know we fell short this time."
The mistake drew criticism from Republicans, who have criticized the think tank as biased.
"They put out their grand analysis, and said oops, we got that one wrong, too," bill author Rep. Kevin Brady, the chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, said Tuesday on the Hugh Hewitt Radio Show. "So it’s really, it illustrates just how far some of these 'nonpartisan' groups will go basically to stop any tax cuts."
The Tax Policy Center is officially a nonpartisan, nonprofit organization. Mazur is a former Obama Treasury official.
The group's estimates include dollar figures for the size of the tax cuts for different groups under the bill. The top 1 percent of income earners would get an average cut of $37,000 in 2018. The top 0.1 percent would see a $179,000 cut.
Because the GOP bill includes a less generous measure of inflation than allowed under current law and some of the tax credits for parents phase out after five years, many middle-class families would see tax hikes in future years. Republicans have said that they expect future Congresses to reinstate those tax breaks.
For example, a quarter of taxpayers, and roughly a third of middle-income earners, would suffer tax hikes by 2027, according to the group.
Families with children, with earnings between $30,000 and $75,000, would see tax increases of $120 to $230.