Utah independent candidate Evan McMullin has significantly closed a massive gap in polling with Sen. Mike Lee just weeks before the incumbent faces a pair of GOP primary challengers, setting up a competitive November race in the usually deep-red state.
Lee has 41% of the prospective general election vote, with McMullin nabbing 37%, according to a recent Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics survey. The numbers are a sign of hope for McMullin — a 2016 independent presidential candidate against Donald Trump and Democratic rival Hillary Clinton. In a March poll for the 2022 Senate race, McMullin trailed Lee by 24 percentage points, 43% to 19%.
UTAH INDEPENDENT EVAN MCMULLIN SAYS HE CAN BE AN EFFECTIVE SENATOR ABSENT PARTY LABEL
“This poll shows that this race is wide open and emerging as one of the most competitive Senate races in the country. Utahns are tired of politics as usual, and they’re ready to send a message — ready for an entirely new way in our politics,” said Kelsey Witt, communications director of McMullin’s campaign. “Utahns can do better. We’re grateful to see Evan’s message is resonating. We’re working hard to bring voters together to find solutions, and we’ll continue to build this coalition until Election Day and beyond.”
The poll asked voters who they would support between McMullin and Lee if the general election were held today, with roughly 19% of voters undecided and another 4% saying they would choose someone else. The survey was conducted between May 24 and June 4 among 810 registered voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.46 percentage points.
The updated polling comes just over two weeks before voters are set to nominate a Republican candidate for the midterm election. The Utah GOP primary is scheduled for June 28, and Lee will face challengers Ally Isom and Becky Edwards for the nomination. The winner will face McMullin in November.
“This is turning out to be a highly competitive race, and it’s because of how unique these candidates are,” Jason Perry, director of the Hinckley Institute of Politics, told the Deseret News. “This will be the first time that, in effect, we’re going to see a general election with two Republican candidates.”
McMullin won the backing of Utah Democrats after party leaders voted in April to nix their own candidate from the ballot to throw their support behind the independent, conceding Democrats have an uphill battle trying to unseat an incumbent Republican senator in the reliably red state. The vote not to advance a candidate from their own party was a first-of-its-kind move aimed at shifting the balance of power in the state.
McMullin has said he won’t caucus with Republicans or Democrats if elected to the Senate, prompting criticism from some corners of the GOP that the decision will limit his influence in Congress. The move breaks from customary Senate practices, as third-party and independent senators typically caucus with one of the major parties in order to secure committee assignments.
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However, McMullin’s campaign has maintained that his pledge to remain independent won’t affect his ability to be a member of committees or hinder his influence in the Senate. By abstaining from caucusing with either party, the independent candidate has argued he will be able to represent all Utah voters rather than limiting himself to align with one party.
