With Joe Biden staggering, confidence in President Trump’s reelection is soaring inside a once-concerned Republican establishment, with only Michael Bloomberg among the remaining Democratic contenders identified as a mortal threat.
Biden placed a demoralizing fifth place in the New Hampshire primary, and, in interviews on Wednesday, nearly a dozen senior Republican strategists dismissed the top three finishers, the Democratic Party’s new 2020 top tier, as fatally flawed. Bernie Sanders is too liberal to beat Trump in key suburban and Midwestern battlegrounds, they claim, and Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar are too weak with nonwhite voters, a core Democratic constituency that would need to turn out strongly for any Democrat to win and that is being aggressively wooed by the president.
Bloomberg suffers from some of the same vulnerabilities, but the billionaire media mogul has one undisputed advantage that has Republican insiders on edge: money. The former New York City mayor has invested more than $350 million since late November, fielding a campaign so massive that it amounts to a shadow political party. Republicans take seriously Bloomberg’s promise to spend whatever it takes to oust Trump and concede the gambit could work.
“Right now, Bloomberg is the biggest threat to President Trump in the fall,” said Jason Miller, a former Trump adviser who, along with Steve Bannon, co-hosts War Room 2020, a podcast and syndicated radio program supportive of the president.
“They should be terrified of Bloomberg,” a Republican ad writer said. “The magnitude of his financial advantage could overwhelm them.”
At least since the midterm elections that saw Democrats flip the House in a 40-seat swing, Republicans have been worried about Trump’s prospects despite a roaring economy that should make the president a favorite to win a second term. Biden had been chief among their concerns since the onset of the Democratic presidential campaign because of the former vice president’s appeal with suburban swing voters, disaffected Republicans, and the working class.
Sanders surging to first place in most recent national polls on the heels of strong finishes in the first two Democratic contests has Republicans salivating, convinced there’s little chance Trump would lose to the socialist Vermont senator.
“Biden has always been the one Republicans worry about,” a GOP consultant told the Washington Examiner. “He is the one who rejects the socialist drift and represents stability and less chaos, which makes him appeal to both Obama-Trump voters” and Mitt Romney-Gary Johnson voters, the consultant said. Romney was the Republican nominee in 2012, Johnson the Libertarian standard-bearer in 2016.
Some Republicans are keeping an eye on Buttigieg, the former mayor of South Bend, Indiana, and Klobuchar, a Minnesota senator.
The two, who finished second and third, respectively, in New Hampshire, would excel with college-educated women in the suburbs and might be attractive choices for independents and swing voters who are troubled by Trump’s provocative behavior. But, for now, at least, Republicans are reassured by the meager support for Buttigieg and Klobuchar among black and Hispanic voters and doubt they can recreate Obama’s winning 2012 coalition.
In a YouGov poll of adults for the Economist, Buttigieg was backed by 2% of blacks and 9% of Hispanics and Klobuchar by 2% of blacks and 4% of Hispanics. Republicans question whether either Democrat would achieve levels of support in urban strongholds such as Detroit, Milwaukee, and Philadelphia to produce an Electoral College victory.
“Mayor Pete is easily the most talented candidate, but he has huge generational and demographic problems that I don’t believe can be solved in a general election,” a Republican strategist said.
As Bloomberg gains steam, opponents are circulating a host of past statements and policies he supported as New York City mayor that could be politically damaging in the Democratic primary and in November. Although Bloomberg is a former Republican, he backs strong restrictions on gun ownership and holds culturally liberal positions that could make his candidacy a tough sell in states such as Wisconsin.
But Republicans are leery.
Bloomberg’s cash spigot, available immediately, would nullify the financial and organizational advantage Trump enjoys over other Democrats. Bloomberg can afford to expand the map by contesting marginal states. Meanwhile, his campaign’s vast organization makes up for the huge disparity in capability between the flush Republican National Committee and the underfunded Democratic National Committee.
“I’m afraid of Bloomberg and Bloomberg only. He is the only one that is not a socialist, has experience, and is double-barrel loaded,” said a Republican operative based in the Heartland.
