Why a mass Republican exodus for Biden is unlikely

Several well-known Republicans have made headlines over the past few weeks by endorsing Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden. But don’t expect a mass exodus of GOP voters to follow.

Former Sen. Jeff Flake is the latest high-profile Republican (ex-Republican?) to endorse Biden. Joined by dozens of other former Republican lawmakers, Flake said in a statement on Monday that because President Trump’s behavior has not changed, conservatives must make a change instead.

“Some of my conservative friends will say, ‘Yes, we don’t like his behavior, but he governs as a conservative.’ Here, today, I will say to my fellow conservatives … indifference to the truth or to the careful stewardship of the institutions of American liberty is not conservative.”

Former Ohio Gov. John Kasich said much the same during his speech at the Democratic National Convention last week. Four more years of Trump, Kasich said, is simply not a choice.

“I’m a lifelong Republican, but that attachment holds second place to my responsibility to my country,” Kasich said. “Yes, there are areas where Joe and I absolutely disagree. But that’s OK because that’s America. Because whatever our differences, we respect one another as human beings, each of us searching for justice and for purpose.”

The Democratic Party is relying on Never Trump figures such as Flake and Kasich to draw disillusioned Republican voters toward Biden and away from Trump. But Democrats are overestimating the influence such figures have in Republican circles and underestimating how much Republican voters, even those who dislike Trump’s character, are much more afraid of the sharp left turn that the Democratic Party has taken.

To be sure, there is a good number of conservatives who believe that the damage Trump is doing to the presidency will outlast whatever good that his policies have done. I considered myself one of them when he was first elected. But let’s be real: Never Trump had, and still has, no appreciable influence outside Twitter. Trump won the nomination twice despite conservatives’ best efforts to reject him because there are simply not as many of us as we’d like to think.

Kasich and Flake might win over those conservative voters, but I doubt they’ll find much appreciation anywhere else. Because even though most everyone can agree that Biden wins the character contest, many voters understand that that’s not what this election is really about. It’s about the Democratic Party’s continuing appeasement of left-wing radicals. Just look at the way the Democratic Party has embraced Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who was granted a prime speaking slot during the convention after having called Nancy Pelosi a racist and a sexist just a year earlier. She might be deeply unpopular nationally, but Democrats fear her star power and will do whatever it takes to make it seem like she has a position of influence in the party. She’s even advising Biden’s campaign on environmental issues.

She also made it quite clear ahead of the DNC that Republican politicos such as Kasich have no place in the Democratic Party, a telling disinvitation to those he might have potentially persuaded to back Biden.

Republican voters look at this and see Ocasio-Cortez for what she is: the Democratic Party’s future. And suddenly, this election isn’t just a choice between Biden and Trump; it’s a choice between Trump and a candidate who would sit back while young radicals impose their socialist vision. When a conservative or a Republican thinks of it that way, the decision almost makes itself.

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