Success breeds imitation, and so it was inevitable that the 2018 election cycle would be packed to the gills with candidates trying to run the Trump playbook. Having stunned the world by breaking virtually every rule of traditional political campaigning, the election of Donald Trump to the highest office in the land emboldened more and more Republicans to try to adopt the tone, tenor, and tactics of Trump as they ran for their own offices. From Roy Moore receiving the blessing of Steve Bannon, to Ed Gillespie’s Virginia campaign that looked far more Trump-esque than his previous statewide efforts, candidates on the Right have been eager to wrap themselves in the trappings of Trumpsim.
But only Trump is Trump.
He may still be beloved by his base, but even endorsements and rallies from the president himself and his closest allies have not guaranteed victory in the various elections that have peppered the political landscape since 2016. The reality of 2018 is that even in places where the president himself may be more popular than average, Republicans are going to have to fight for their own wins.
Trump-world brand name Corey Lewandowski warned at a rally last month “The failing New York Times wants to write … that Donald Trump cannot carry a candidate anymore.” Just a few days later, the candidate Lewandowski had endorsed, James Buchanan, lost a Florida state House district that had been formerly held by the GOP, and in a district that had been won by Trump, no less.
In Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District, Rick Saccone certainly tried to ride the Trump wave. Saccone had touted himself as “Trump before Trump was Trump.” Trump confidantes like Kellyanne Conway and Ivanka Trump traveled to the district to advocate for Saccone, and the president himself came to town in the days before the election, delivering a pure, unfiltered dose of Trumpism along with an endorsement of Saccone to a crowd of thousands.
Even if Saccone had won (or somehow wins in a recount) there’s no spinning it: PA-18 didn’t have to happen this way. This was a district that the president had won by more than a 20 point margin, where the former incumbent Republican hadn’t even had to face an opponent in 2016.
Expect to be “carried,” and you get what happened in Pennsylvania last night. Saccone was slammed by consultants a poor fundraiser, relying heavily on outside groups to bankroll the air war between Democrats and the GOP, allowing Conor Lamb’s campaign to get significantly more bang for his buck on television. Saccone and allied groups spent nearly two-thirds of the $13 million spent on air, but Saccone’s own campaign spent just $1 million of that, with groups like the National Republican Congressional Committee and Congressional Leadership Fund, and Trump outside group America First Policies making up the gap. Meanwhile, Conor Lamb’s own campaign spent over $3 million on television, and benefited greatly from the much cheaper ad rates that federal campaigns receive compared to outside groups.
There’s also, as always, the question of the opposition. In places where Republicans have thrived in the last year, it has been where the Republican candidate was the better fit for the district, and where the Democrat was simply not. Take as Exhibit A Karen Handel and Jon Ossoff, where Handel’s ability to stay a loyal GOP soldier without making her campaign about Trump worked well in contrast with Ossoff’s at times cringe-inducing attempts to win over the district as a national “Resistance” icon.
Where Republicans have struggled, it has been where Democrats have wisely chosen their candidates, whether through anodyne, swing-voter-winning types like Doug Jones and Ralph Northam, or those like Conor Lamb, who had the latitude to break with the national party when need be on issues like Nancy Pelosi or new gun laws.
All of which is to say: it’s not clear there’s much else Donald Trump could have done to have “carried” PA-18. Candidates who put their names on a ballot need to be prepared to carry themselves. They need to work hard, raise funds, meet and connect with voters, win on the issues, and authentically fit the district they seek to represent. Democrats are eager to make the 2018 election a referendum on the president. But even Republicans in places where the president is more popular than average need to be ready: There’s no coasting off the back of the Trump Train in 2018.
