This year marks a first for this critic: Never have so many of my “should win’s” matched up with my “will win’s” in an Oscar preview. Hollywood has, against all odds, fallen in love with “The Artist” — as this critic did, as well. Perennial favorites Steven Spielberg, Martin Scorsese, George Clooney and Brad Pitt are the dark horses this year, as previously unknown names such as Michel Hazanavicius and Jean Dujardin look likely to take home — to France — the gold.
Best Picture
Will win: ‘The Artist’
Who could have guessed that a nearly silent, black and white picture, made in the non-widescreen 4:3 aspect ratio by a Frenchman, would steal Hollywood’s heart?
Should win: ‘The Artist’
But “The Artist,” a witty tribute to the creative spirit, is just that good. The Cannes jury inexplicably gave the Palme d’Or to the self-indulgent “The Tree of Life” over “The Artist.” Academy voters, thankfully, won’t make the same mistake.
Best Director
Will win: Michel Hazanavicius
Hazanavicius is an unlikely Oscar winner himself: He was best known, in his native France, for a couple of spy movie parodies before he got serious and made “The Artist.” Perhaps he simply decided to have fun while he learned his craft.
Should win: Michel Hazanavicius
“The Artist” is an achievement on many levels, including the cinematic and thematic. That’s rare in an era in which filmmakers often privilege the visual over the story or vice versa.
Best Actress
Will win: Viola Davis
“The Help” is the sort of movie the Academy loves to honor — a period piece about Big Social Issues. But the film itself isn’t good enough to win on its own merits, so Academy voters will hand out some statues to its well-regarded cast.
Should win: Michelle Williams
Rooney Mara threw herself into the title role of “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo,” becoming unrecognizable from the girlfriend she played in “The Social Network.” Williams did the year’s standout work, bringing new life into a tired icon without letting us ignore her own distinctive charm.
Best Supporting Actress
Will win: Octavia Spencer
There’s tough competition here — including Berenice Bejo (“The Artist”) and Janet McTeer (“Albert Nobb”) — but the actress who played one of the indomitable spirits of “The Help” will win it.
Should win: Jessica Chastain
This was Chastain’s year, with back-to-back powerful performances in “Take Shelter,” “The Tree of Life,” “The Help,” and “The Debt,” along with the just-released-in-Washington “Coriolanus.”
Best Actor
Will win: Jean Dujardin
Until a few weeks ago, my money would have been on Brad Pitt, who put in good work in “Moneyball”; Academy favorite George Clooney in “The Descendants”; or one of the best actors never to have even gotten a nomination before, Gary Oldman, for “Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy.” But “The Artist” seems unstoppable.
Should win: Jean Dujardin
And “The Artist” wouldn’t have been nearly so charming without the very charming man at its center.
Best Supporting Actor
Will win: Christopher Plummer
How is it that the Canadian legend, whose most famous role was in 1965’s “The Sound of Music,” has never won an Oscar?
Should win: Christopher Plummer
This wouldn’t be a “let’s give the guy an Oscar before he dies” deal, either. “Beginners” was a sweet gem missed, sadly, by many moviegoers.
Best Original Screenplay
Will win: ‘Midnight in Paris’
Woody Allen’s best film in years got him a nod not just in the screenplay category, with which he’s by now familiar, but also in Best Picture.
Should win: ‘A Separation’
This was a good year for original writing: “The Artist” was a clever film, and “Midnight in Paris” and “Bridesmaids” offered serious fun. But did the writers of those films manage to get subtle critiques of the Islamic Republic past the censors?
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will win: ‘The Descendants’
“The Descendants,” directed by Alexander Payne and starring George Clooney, was disappointing. But critics hate to be disappointed, so the film got reviews it didn’t deserve.
Should win: ‘The Ides of March’
Better was Clooney’s other nominated film. His adaptation of the play “Farragut North” proved the actor does know something about politics.
Foreign Language Film
Will win: ‘A Separation’
I wouldn’t normally bet against a film about the Holocaust. But Asghar Farhadi’s moving work will become the first Iranian film to win the foreign-language Oscar.
Should win: ‘A Separation’
“In Darkness,” a harrowing drama about Polish Jews who survived the Holocaust by living in Lviv’s sewers, is a great film. But “A Separation” is masterful.
Original Score
Will win: ‘The Artist’
Kim Novak helped create controversy when she placed a full-page ad in Variety accusing composer Ludovic Bource of “rape” for using parts of Bernard Herrmann’s “Vertigo” score in his work for “The Artist.” She might have had better luck had she been a bit less over-the-top.
Should win: ‘The Artist’
Bource created a loving tribute to — not a ripoff “rape” of — the great Hitchcock collaborator Herrmann.
