The Biden administration is considering a major change to U.S. nuclear weapons policy.
Allies are worried. On Oct. 29, the Financial Times reported that “U.S. allies are lobbying Joe Biden not to change American policy on the use of nuclear weapons amid concern that the president is considering a ‘no first use’ declaration.”
“No first use” is a public commitment not to use nuclear weapons except in response to their use by another power. As an idea, it sounds nice. But as U.S. policy, it is foolhardy and naive. The United States is overstretched, and its conventional capabilities, particularly its Navy, have deteriorated. At the same time, Chinese power has only grown. The cost has been a depreciation in the U.S.’s ability to deter aggression. With saber-rattling from Beijing increasing, the costs of U.S. complacency are coming into focus.
Deterrence matters most where the stakes of failure are highest. There is no domain more critical to effective deterrence than the nuclear one.
Washington, for the moment, has an edge in technology. It also has a considerable advantage in the nuclear realm, although its arsenal is not what it needs to be. Biden should be bolstering the means of technology to hold China and other top adversaries at risk. That imposed risk is crucial toward persuading these adversaries not to dance with nuclear blackmail or war.
U.S. allies need to see a Washington that is clear-eyed about Beijing’s intentions, not a Washington that thinks idealistic pronouncements are a substitute for growing military competition. Naivete is not a good basis for formulating strategy.
The writer is a Washington, D.C.-based foreign affairs analyst. His views are his own.
