All eyes are on the presidency, but what happens in the U.S. Senate will be the second-most consequential election story. As for how Georgia’s delegation will contribute to the Senate’s makeup, we are going to have to wait until January before we know.
Incumbent Georgia Republican Kelly Loeffler will face Democrat Raphael Warnock in a runoff election in January. Neither candidate, nor any of the other 18, reached the majority threshold required to win the special Senate election outright.
In a Georgia special election, candidates forego primaries and appear together on the general election ballot. That is why there were 20 candidates. That is also why Republican Rep. Doug Collins of Georgia could vie for the seat alongside Loeffler. The incumbent Loeffler may not have won outright without Collins in the race, but his participation certainly took away votes.
Loeffler has been enthusiastic about her support for President Trump, and FiveThirtyEight calculates her “Trump score,” or how often she votes in line with Trump’s position, at 100%. Georgia rewarded her for that.
Collins, for his part, also proved himself to be an ally of the president. As a member of the consequential House Judiciary Committee, he had plenty of opportunities to create buzz and go to bat for Trump. Alongside stalwart Russia investigation critic Rep. Jim Jordan, Collins did just that, fighting off Democratic critics of the president and Attorney General William Barr when Barr appeared before the committee amid the summer unrest. Georgia rewarded him for that.
Collins has since conceded the race, but the consequence of his participation is sealed. Loeffler will have to try again.
Though not insurmountable, the runoff is not what Republicans wanted. They currently hold 53 seats in the Senate but are defending 23 seats. Democrats have 45 seats, plus those held by independents Bernie Sanders and Angus King, and are only defending 12 seats. On paper, Democrats don’t have too far to go to pick up a majority.
Despite that, Republicans have reasons to be hopeful, and their names are Tommy Tuberville, Joni Ernst, and Mitch McConnell. Tuberville has been declared the victor against Democratic Sen. Doug Jones in Alabama, and Ernst’s and McConnell’s races have also been called in their favor.
Democrats’ chances to take over the Senate have slimmed, and if Thom Tillis prevails in North Carolina or Susan Collins in Maine, Republicans will be in a good position to retain their majority.
