More than a year after they broke with the vast majority of their party to support President Donald Trump’s impeachment, a handful of Republican members of Congress is fighting uphill battles to keep their seats.
Voters will soon decide the fates of five of the 10 GOP House members who cast votes in favor of Trump’s second impeachment in 2021.
Four of the 10 have said they’ll retire rather than seek reelection in the post-Trump environment.
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Another, Rep. Tom Rice (SC), has already faced voters in the primaries and discovered just how costly crossing Trump can be: He lost against a Trump-backed challenger earlier this month. Rice, like some of the other Republican impeachment backers, remained critical of Trump months after the impeachment battle had concluded.
Each of the five Republicans fighting to remain in Congress this year is facing circumstances unique to his or her district.
All, however, are united by the headwinds they’ve faced as a result of their impeachment vote.
LIZ CHENEY (WY)
Her state’s at-large congresswoman, Cheney is the most likely of the bunch to lose her seat as a result of her persistent attacks on Trump.
Cheney won reelection in 2020 with more than 40% of the vote, buoyed by her congressional leadership position and conservative legislative record.
But the former vice president’s daughter took her criticism of Trump further than just her vote in favor of impeachment and continued speaking out against the former president until she was stripped of her leadership title and ostracized from the party.
Cheney has continued to put herself at odds with her colleagues by participating in the Democratic-led investigation of Jan. 6.
Trump has publicly backed Harriet Hageman, who is challenging Cheney in the state’s Aug. 16 Republican primary.
But Hageman’s challenge is notable for another endorsement she landed: that of House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA). While party leaders rarely get involved in primary challenges against incumbent colleagues, McCarthy took the step of backing Hageman amid a consensus among Republicans that Cheney’s public comments were becoming too big a distraction.
The limited polling available suggests Hageman has a healthy shot at winning. A poll published earlier this month found Cheney trailing 28 points behind her primary challenger two months before Election Day.
PETER MEIJER (MI)
Meijer has managed to raise significantly more funds for his campaign than his Trump-endorsed primary challenger — but that may not be enough to save him from the wrath of the 45th president’s fans.
Unlike Rice and Cheney, however, Meijer has not made his opposition to Trump’s election-related antics a part of his political identity.
In a recent ad, Meijer touted his commitment to border security while images of border wall construction played in the background — a subtle embrace of Trump’s signature policy without mentioning him by name.
John Gibbs, a former Trump administration official, is looking to take advantage of Republican voters’ frustration with Meijer. While polling in the district has been limited, a survey released in February showed just 34% of likely GOP primary voters held a favorable view of Meijer.
Even if Meijer manages to hold off Gibbs in the Aug. 2 primary, he will still face obstacles to remaining in Congress.
His district, Michigan’s 3rd, is competitive, as President Joe Biden carried it in 2020. The Cook Political Report rated it as a “Republican toss-up,” meaning that Meijer would have a slight advantage if he won his primary given how dramatically the landscape is tipped against Democrats but that the race will still be contentious.
DAN NEWHOUSE (WA)
A four-term congressman, Newhouse may benefit in his Aug. 2 primary from the number of contenders who have lined up to challenge him.
Newhouse has seven primary challengers in a race that, due to state law, will see the top two vote-getters advance to the general election regardless of their party.
Like other primary contests featuring incumbents who voted to impeach him, Trump has picked a candidate to endorse in an effort to unseat Newhouse.
Loren Culp, a former police chief who previously ran statewide to challenge Washington’s governor, earned Trump’s endorsement in February. Culp lost to Gov. Jay Inslee (D) by 13 points in 2020.
Culp has so far failed to raise significant sums of money, however, with at least two other Republican and Democratic primary opponents out-raising him despite his name recognition and high-profile backing.
JAIME HERRERA BEUTLER (WA)
Herrera Beutler is running for reelection in a relatively moderate district, which could insulate her from Trump supporters’ backlash.
Trump has endorsed Joe Kent in the primary race against her. Like Newhouse, Herrera Beutler could face off against another candidate this fall in the all-party primary system.
Kent has run as a staunch conservative, opposing, for example, the red flag laws encouraged by a bipartisan Senate group’s recent gun safety proposal.
Herrera Beutler said she wanted to review the final bill before taking a stand.
The Washington Republican could encounter friction because she has publicly cooperated with Democrats’ efforts to probe the events surrounding Jan. 6. However, she has kept her public criticism of Trump to a relative minimum and has not drawn the ire of congressional leadership, unlike Cheney.
DAVID VALADAO (CA)
Valadao is the only one of the five to have undergone, and survived, his primary contest.
Valadao advanced through the top-two primary by beating his top challenger, Chris Mathys, by less than 1,500 votes.
As they have in other competitive House districts, Democrats attempted to boost Mathys in the run-up to the primary — calculating that a further-right Republican opponent may be easier to beat for a swing seat than Valadao, a more centrist opponent.
