Congress calls Trump’s bluff on veto threat for defense policy bill

“I feel just as passionate about that as he does,” said Oklahoma Sen. Jim Inhofe, the Republican chairman of the Armed Services Committee, “The only difference of opinion that we have is, I don’t want it on this bill … because the Democrats will not appoint conferees” to draft a compromise.

Inhofe was overheard giving the bad news to Trump, talking over speakerphone while walking through the Russell Senate Office Building, a source told Axios. “This is the only chance to get our bill passed,” Inhofe reportedly informed the president, loud enough for others to hear.

VOTE COMING: The NDAA is considered must-pass legislation, and negotiations traditionally culminate in a bipartisan consensus for the good of the country.

“For 59 straight years, the NDAA has passed because Members of Congress and Presidents of both parties have set aside their own policy objectives and partisan preferences and put the needs of our military personnel and America’s security first. The time has come to do that again,” said Reps. Adam Smith and Mac Thornberry, the Democratic and Republican leaders of the House Armed Services Committee, in a joint statement.

“The purpose of the bill has always been to support our troops and to protect American national security. Disagreements on all other issues have been put aside,” said Thornberry. “This year should be no different.”

Both versions of the NDAA passed their respective chambers by veto-proof margins, 295-125 in the House and 86-14 in the Senate, which has emboldened members of both parties to stand firm against the lame-duck president.

“I will vote to override. Because it’s really not about you,” tweeted Republican Rep. Adam Kinzinger of Illinois. “It’s about deep-sixing the NDAA (which is about the military and has been in conference for months) with something totally unrelated that has not been debated or thought through,” he said.

Sources say a vote on the House floor could come as early as tonight. No vote has yet been set in the Senate.

WHY THE BILL MUST PASS: Because this is a lame-duck session of Congress, and new members will take their seats Jan. 3, the NDAA cannot just slip into next year.

The complicated legislation, which includes some 2,200 provisions that have been painstakingly negotiated over months, would essentially have to start the process over again from square one.

“It’s like an Etch A Sketch,” says retired Lt. Gen. Tom Spoehr of the Heritage Foundation. “Once this session of Congress expires, both of these versions of the NDAA that were passed by the House and the Senate go away, it has to be re-passed again.”

Among the provisions in the authorization bill are pay raises for the military and hazardous duty pay for troops in harm’s way, improvements to military housing and child care, $8.4 billion in military construction projects, as well as bipartisan provisions on artificial intelligence and cybersecurity.

“It’s a 700-page bill that’s really the minutia that keeps the wheels of the Department of Defense moving,” retired Army Maj. Gen. John Ferrari, an American Enterprise Institute defense budget analyst, told the Washington Examiner. “Without it, a lot of those programs can come to a halt.”

VETO THREAT LINGERS: Yesterday, White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany insisted Trump was not ready to back down. “The president will always defend our military and ensure that we get adequate defense funding, as he’s gotten $2.9 trillion so far. But he is going to put the pressure on Congress to step up on this,” she told reporters. “The president is serious about it.”

Good Thursday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Victor I. Nava. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.

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HAPPENING TODAY: For the second day in a row, Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley will make public remarks, this time at the U.S. Naval Institute’s 2020 Defense Forum at 11:25 a.m. Also on the agenda at 9 a.m. are Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Michael Gilday and Marine Corps Commandant Gen. David Berger, both of whom testified yesterday before Congress.

‘A MODICUM OF SUCCESS’: If Milley opposed President Trump’s order to abruptly draw down U.S. troops in Afghanistan to 2,500 by Jan. 15, he didn’t show it at a Brookings Institution event yesterday.

Milley said the plan was proceeding apace and said the remaining U.S. forces would continue to support the NATO-led train, advise, and assist mission, albeit from fewer and smaller bases.

“After 20 years, two decades of consistent effort there, we’ve achieved a modicum of success,” Milley told Brooking’s Michael O’Hanlon. Milley said it’s been clear for at least the past five years that there was no military victory to be had.

“We have been in a condition of strategic stalemate where the government of Afghanistan was never going to militarily defeat the Taliban, and the Taliban, as long as we were supporting the government of Afghanistan, was never going to militarily defeat the regime.”

GLIMMER OF PROGRESS: While Milley was describing peace talks between the Taliban and Afghan government as being in “a very critical stage,” the first word came of a breakthrough, an agreement on how to move forward.

“I welcome the news from #Doha that the two Afghan sides have reached a significant milestone: A three-page agreement codifing rules and procedures for their negotiations on a political roadmap and a comprehensive ceasefire,” tweeted Zalmay Khalilzad, the U.S. special envoy for Afghanistan, “This agreement demonstrates that the negotiating parties can agree on tough issues. We congratulate both sides on their perseverance.”

“What has been achieved provides hope they will succeed in reaching a political settlement to this more than forty-year-old conflict,” said Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in a statement. “As negotiations on a political roadmap and permanent ceasefire begin, we will also work hard with all sides in pursuit of a serious reduction of violence and ceasefire.”

“That’s very odious for many, many people to think that we’re going to negotiate with someone like the Taliban,” Milley said. “But that is, in fact, the most common way that insurgencies end, is to negotiate a power-sharing settlement.”

HOW FLYNN FELL FROM GRACE: NBC News is out with a 7,900-word story this morning, which it says is based on more than 20 current and former Trump administration officials, that purports to tell the real story of the firing of national security adviser retired Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn in 2017.

The reports contend, among other things, that:

• Trump began to sour on Flynn during the transition for bringing bad press. “He couldn’t stand Mike Flynn,” another senior White House official said. “He wanted to fire Flynn before he even got to the White House.”

• “Everyone’s forgetting that Flynn was fired because he was lying to everyone,” said one senior White House official. “After weeks of asking him, he was still saying he never talked to the Russian ambassador about sanctions.”

• Marc Lotter, an aide to Vice President Mike Pence, said Flynn had “essentially made the Vice President of the United States a liar.” Pence was described as “smoldering” as he was comparing a transcript of his interview on CBS and transcripts of Flynn’s calls with Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak.

• “The biggest question that’s never been answered is why didn’t he tell everyone in the West Wing that he talked to him about sanctions?” one official said. “Because no one would have cared if he did.”

A FEW BAD IDEAS: The Center for Strategic and International Studies is out with its annual Bad Ideas in National Security series, a selection of short articles on “recently considered and not too obvious bad ideas” in the defense and foreign policy arena. Among the “bad” ideas:

• Treating “The Pentagon” and “The White House” as if They Were People
• Failing to Think on the Margins of the Defense Budget
• Excluding Qualified Leaders from Pentagon Service Because of Defense Industry Experience
• Domestic Terrorist Organization Designations
• “Great Power Competition” Terminology

TRANSITION WATCH: The Pentagon says the transition to the incoming Biden administration is proceeding “in a professional, orderly, efficient and transparent manner,” with members of the Biden-Harris transition team getting a tour of their office spaces in the building and completing paperwork and credentialing.

“This week, the Transition Task Force is focusing on onboarding ART [Agency Review Team] members, including workspaces, processing of temporary badges, non-disclosure agreements and other administrative matters; preparing responses to the initial requests for information from the ART; and coordinating requested interviews between ART members and DOD officials,” said Sue Gough, a Department of Defense spokesperson.

“The Transition Task Force is also hosting and participating in ART requested meetings with DoD leadership across a broad spectrum of organizations, missions and programs.”

The Rundown

Washington Examiner: Trump-weary Congress moves to circumvent defense bill veto threat

Washington Examiner: Defense experts warn of repercussions if $740B NDAA bill doesn’t pass

Washington Examiner: US to limit personnel at Baghdad embassy ahead of Soleimani death anniversary: Reports

Washington Examiner: More than 1,000 researchers linked to Chinese military left US after summer crackdown began, DOJ official says

Washington Examiner: Navy promises Senate it will respond to Russian provocations near Alaska

USNI News: SECNAV Announces The Return Of The U.S. Atlantic Fleet, Focus Will Be On Russian Threat

Navy Times: Who In The Military Will Get The COVID Vaccines First? The CNO Gives Congress Some Insights

Business Insider: Operation Warp Speed’s Top Scientist Predicts More Than 100 Million Americans Could Be Immunized With Coronavirus Vaccines Within The Next 100 Days

Reuters: U.S. Says U.N. COVID-19 Meeting Is Stage For Chinese ‘Propaganda’

Marine Corps Times: Marine Infantry Training Not Long Enough ― Or Good Enough ― For Future Fight, Commandant Says

Air Force Magazine: Raymond: Air Support Coming to US Space Command

Inside Defense: Navy Considering Fast-Tracking Acquisition Of Ship To Replace Bonhomme Richard

USNI News: First Marine Corps Carrier-Capable F-35C Squadron Now Ready to Deploy

NBC News: Michael Flynn’s Firing: A Lie, A Leak, and then A Liability

McClatchy: Investigation finds causes of rise in military aviation crashes remain, 224 killed

Reuters: U.S. Military To Keep Two Larger Afghan Bases After Drawdown To 2,500

Washington Post: After Months Of Deadlock, Afghanistan Peace Talks Show Signs Of Progress

19fortyfive.com: Royal Navy’s Type 32 Frigate: A Navy Mothership?

Seapower Magazine: SECNAV Selects USS Congress As Name Of Second Constellation Frigate

Washington Examiner: Opinion: Confirmed: Navy’s previously unreported 2019 Triangle UFO incident

Calendar

THURSDAY | DECEMBER 3

9:30 a.m. — Carnegie Europe, in partnership with NATO, hosts the public launch of the NATO 2030 Expert Group’s Report: “United for a New Era,” with keynote address by NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg. Livestream at https://carnegieeurope.eu

12 p.m. — Aspen Institute Cyber Summit with Tonya Ugoretz, deputy assistant FBI director for cyber readiness, outreach and intelligence; Marene Allison, chief information security officer for Johnson & Johnson; Meredith Harper, chief information security officer for Eli Lilly; Stacey Dixon, deputy director of the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency; Catherine Marsh, director of Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity organization in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence; Anne Neuberger, director of the Cybersecurity Directorate at the National Security Agency; Senate Intelligence Vice Chair Mark Warner, D-Va.; Rep. Will Hurd, R-Texas; and Rep. Lauren Underwood, D-Ill., chair of the House Homeland Security Committee’s Cybersecurity, Infrastructure Protection and Innovation Subcommittee. Register at https://www.aspencybersummit.org/

12 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: “Competing with Great Powers at the ‘Speed of Relevance,” with Ellen Lord, defense undersecretary for acquisition and sustainment. https://www.hudson.org/events

2 p.m. — R Street Institute and National Taxpayers Union webinar “Pentagon Purse Strings Episode 1: What is a Contingency? Exploring the OCO Account and Reform in the 117th Congress,” with Rep. Ralph Norman, R-S.C.; Andrew Lautz, National Taxpayers Union, Jonathan Bydlak, R Street Institute; and Wendy Jordan, senior policy analyst, Taxpayers for Common Sense. https://www.rstreet.org/event

1 p.m. Rayburn 2118 & Cisco Webex — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Readiness hearing: “Review of the Findings and Recommendations of the National Commission on Military Aviation Safety,” with retired Army Gen. Richard Cody, chairman, National Commission on Military Aviation Safety; and Richard Healing, vice chairman, National Commission on Military Aviation Safety. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings

2 p.m. — Brookings Institution webcast: “The Future of U.S. Alliances in the Indo-Pacific,” with Sen. Tammy Duckworth, D-Ill. https://www.brookings.edu/events

4 p.m. — Jewish Institute for National Security of America webinar on the assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, Iran’s top nuclear scientist, with retired Israeli Maj. Gen.Yaakov Amidror, former national security adviser; and Jonathan Ruhe, JINSA director of foreign policy. https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register

5 p.m. — National Security Institute at George Mason University “NatSec Nightcap” conversation: “Advancing Diplomacy Aboard, a Deep Dive into U.S. Foreign Policy,” with Elliott Abrams, special representative for Iran and Venezuela; and Jamil Jaffer, founder and executive director, National Security Institute. https://nationalsecurity.gmu.edu/natsec-nightcap

FRIDAY | DECEMBER 4

9 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies webcast with former CIA Director John Brennan on the top national security priorities for a new Biden administration. https://www.csis.org/events/online

10 a.m. — Association of the U.S. Army “Thought Leaders” webinar with former national security adviser retired Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster to discuss his book, Battlegrounds: The Fight to Defend the Free World. https://www.bigmarker.com/ausaorg

1:30 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies webcast: “Reflecting America’s Diversity in its Military,” with Army Maj. Gen. Tammy Smith; retired Marine Corps Maj. Gen. Charles Bolden, former NASA administrator; and Alice Hunt Friend, senior fellow in the CSIS International Security Program. https://www.csis.org/events

3 p.m. — Woodrow Wilson Center Kissinger Institute on China and the United States virtual book discussion on “Where Great Powers Meet,” focusing on the rivalry between the United States and China in Southeast Asia, with author David Shambaugh, director of the George Washington University China Policy Program; Robert Daly, director of the Kissinger Institute; and J. Stapleton Roy, director emeritus of the Kissinger Institute. https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event

3 p.m. — Hudson Institute webinar: “Diplomacy, Deterrence, and Disruption: Navigating North Korea Policy in 2021,” with Jihwan Hwang, associate professor at the University of Seoul; Andrea Mihailescu, fellow in residence at Pepperdine University; Won Gon Park, professor of international studies at Handong Global University; Brad Roberts, director of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s Center for Global Security Research; and Patrick Cronin, senior fellow at Hudson. https://www.hudson.org/events

TUESDAY | DECEMBER 8

9:30 a.m. — Mitchell Institute Aerospace Nation virtual conversation with Lt. Gen. Joseph Guastella, deputy chief of staff for operations, U.S. Air Force Headquarters, moderated by retired Lt. Gen. David Deptula, dean of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies. Invitation only, but video posted afterward at https://www.mitchellaerospacepower.org/aerospace-nation

1 p.m. — Center for the National Interest webinar: “How Kim Jong-Un Sees a Biden Administration — and How Kim Will Respond,” with Ken Gause, director of the Adversary Analytics Program at CNA; Soo Kim, policy analyst at the RAND Corporation; John Dale Grover, Korean studies fellow at the CNA; and Harry Kazianis, senior director of Korean studies at the CNA. Register at https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register

WEDNESDAY | DECEMBER 9

12 p.m. — Association of the U.S. Army “Noon Report” webinar, with Command Sgt. Maj. Andrew Lombardo, senior enlisted leader of the U.S. Army Reserve. Register at: https://info.ausa.org

TUESDAY | DECEMBER 15

2 p.m. — The SETA Foundation at Washington D.C. webinar: “The Biden Administration’s Foreign Policy Priorities,” with Charles Kupchan, professor, Georgetown University; Shadi Hamid, senior fellow, Brookings Institution; and Kilic Kanat, research director, SETA Foundation. https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register