House Democrats appear to be on the precipice of expanding their majority in the lower chamber.
In a new report by the nonpartisan election forecaster the Cook Political Report, seven House races have shifted in the Democratic Party’s favor, including the contest for the North Carolina seat vacated by White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, which moved from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican.”
There are 232 Democrats and 198 Republicans in the House, as well as one libertarian, former Republican Justin Amash, and four vacancies, including one left by the late Rep. John Lewis. Republicans lost control of the House thanks to the so-called “blue wave” during the 2018 midterm elections in which Democrats flipped 41 seats.
There are other warning signs for Republicans in the upper chamber, where they currently hold 53 seats. An analysis released by the Cook Political Report in July, when there was just over 100 days before the election in November, said, “Democrats are a slight favorite to win the Senate majority.”
The new report on the House found the GOP’s chances of taking back the lower chamber increasingly depressed. Even if the 25 races listed as a “toss up” are split evenly, Democrats could gain five or six seats.
“Republicans no longer have a realistic path to picking up the 17 seats they need for a majority,” the report reads. “Right now, the most likely outcome is a Democratic net gain of between five and ten seats, with anything from no net change to a Democratic gain of 15 seats possible.”
Of the other races that received a status change from the Cook Political Report, Democratic Reps. Susan Wild of Pennsylvania and Lizzie Pannill Fletcher of Texas saw their contests moved from “Lean Democratic” to “Likely Democratic.” The contests involving incumbent Reps. Abigail Spanberger of Virginia and Cindy Axne of Iowa, both Democrats, moved from “Toss Up” to “Lean Democratic.”
New York Republican Rep. John Katko‘s race moved from “Lean Republican” to a “Toss Up,” while the contest involving Rep. Mike Kelly of Pennsylvania moved from “Solid Republican” to “Likely Republican.”
Katko, who is seeking a fourth term, is facing another challenge from Syracuse University professor Dana Balter, whom he defeated by just 5 points in a Hillary Clinton-won district in 2018.
Though Katko didn’t support President Trump’s first campaign in 2016 and has at times been critical of the commander in chief, he has vowed to support Trump this year. Some political strategists believe his newfound support for Trump may be a barrier to him receiving the votes of independents and centrist Democrats he has gotten in the past.
“Katko’s on the same ticket and has supported a Republican president who is very unpopular and is poised to lose in this district,” Don Levy, director of the Siena College Research Institute, told the Syracuse Post-Standard. “Katko has this tough battle to carve out a middle ground, and ostensibly, he’s doing that. But will he be able to eke out a win here? He’s got a challenge.”
Spanberger’s race is one of the most closely watched in the country with the freshman lawmaker facing a challenge by Republican state Del. Nick Freitas, who has been a member of the Virginia House of Delegates since 2016.
Spanberger, a former undercover officer for the CIA, was one of 30 Democrats who flipped a Trump-won district in 2018.
Though the Cook Political Report pared back the outlook, Meadows’s former seat is still favored to go to 25-year-old Madison Cawthorn, who would be the youngest lawmaker in Congress if elected. Cawthorn spoke at the Republican National Convention in August about overcoming adversity after being the victim of a car crash that left him paralyzed from the waist down.
In November, Cawthorn will face Democrat Moe Davis, a former prosecutor and retired Air Force colonel.
