Less than a month out from the midterm elections, President Trump is embracing a new role: campaigner-in-chief.
Trump is holding rallies almost every weeknight, most of them in states where Republicans are either trying to topple Democratic incumbents or shore up seats they already hold. While even Fox News has cut back on its live television coverage of these events, they still can be helpful to GOP candidates in red states.
Although Trump touts a possible “red wave” on the trail, ever since the White House announced his campaign travel schedule in August it has concentrated heavily on Republican-friendly areas. “They’re only sending him to places where he can benefit the candidate,” said a GOP strategist advising candidates running this year. “He might go to Texas or Mississippi, you don’t see him in Connecticut.”
Trump hasn’t abandoned longshot Senate candidates he’s embraced in states he carried in 2016, however. He keeps appearing in Ohio and Pennsylvania even though they are far less likely pickup opportunities than North Dakota or Missouri, both of which are also frequent rally destinations.
“If you want to save American lives, and save American jobs … then you need to vote for a pro-American patriot named Lou Barletta,” Trump declared in Erie, Pennsylvania. Barletta, a former mayor of the working-class city of Hazelton, was elected to the House on an immigration-restrictionist platform before Trump was active in politics and was an early supporter of the president.
“A vote for [Phil] Bredesen is a vote for Chuck Schumer, Nancy Pelosi, and the real leader of the Democrats, Maxine Waters. Phil Bredesen wants to raise your taxes,” Trump said in Tennessee, where Republicans are trying to avoid losing the seat being vacated by GOP Sen. Bob Corker.
“The president can have a busy schedule just going where he can be helpful,” said Bradley Blakeman, a former aide to President George W. Bush.
The Republican House majority is imperiled by Trump’s relatively low national approval ratings and a suburban revolt against his presidency. Historically speaking, the president’s party tends to lose seats in the first midterm election. This is even truer when, like Trump, the person in the White House is backed by only about 40 percent of the electorate.
Hillary Clinton carried 23 GOP-held districts in 2016, which is also the margin by which the party controls the House. But the path to control of the Senate runs through Republican states, including many where Trump remains popular.
GOP Senate candidates bask in the glow of Trump’s freewheeling speeches. “I know that the Democrats keep saying that there is a blue wave coming but let me tell you something, Mr. president, when that blue wave gets to the state line, it is going to run smack dab into the great red wall,” said Rep. Marsha Blackburn, R-Tenn., who is running against Bredesen for the Corker seat.
Even as the GOP majority in the House has grown ever more tenuous, Republicans appear to be solidifying their leads in the contested Senate races. Sen. Heidi Heitkamp, D-N.D., now trails by double digits. Tennessee and Texas look red again. Trump’s busy travel schedule and the battle to confirm Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh over determined Democratic opposition are considered major factors in this rebound.
Republicans still concede they are facing major headwinds going into November, but they are cautiously optimistic Trump’s role will pay dividends that are perhaps understated in the current polling data.
