Military aviation is in crisis. But are budgets cuts the only reason?

DEADLY CRASH FUELS DEBATE: Are more military planes crashing because of years of neglect of training maintenance, or do accidents just happen? Yesterday’s crash of an aging Air Force C-130 in Georgia, killing nine members of the Puerto Rican Air National Guard, came on the same day Navy officials were downplaying any link between years of strict congressionally imposed spending caps and a rise in military mishaps.

THE WASHINGTON VIEW: With every crash comes a statement from lawmakers blaming the “crisis” in military aviation on the corrosive effects of the Budget Control Act of 2011, which sharply curtailed the increase in Pentagon spending. “What has been evident to me for some time is now becoming clear to the American people. The readiness of our military is at a crisis point,” said House Armed Services Chairman Rep. Mac Thornberry in such statement last month.  

But now that the $700 billion Pentagon budget fully funds training and maintenance accounts, military officials are not as quick to blame budgets for high-profile deadly accidents like yesterday’s. Lawrence Korb, a former assistant secretary of defense in the 1980s, expresses a contrarian view in an essay in The American Conservative.

AN AGING PLANE, ON ITS LAST LEG: At a news conference yesterday, the adjutant general of the Puerto Rico National Guard said the C-130 was more than 60 years old and was making its final flight to Arizona to be decommissioned. Brig. Gen. Isabelo Rivera said the Puerto Rico Guard has five other C-130s, two of which are down for maintenance. A surveillance video from a nearby business posted by the Beaufort Gazette shows the plane turning over in the sky and nose-diving into a fiery explosion. President Trump also tweeted that he had been briefed on the deadly incident. “Please join me in thoughts and prayers for the victims, their families and the great men and women of the National Guard,” he wrote.

IS THE BUDGET TO BLAME? Last month the Military Times, using records obtained through Freedom of Information Act requests, compiled a comprehensive database showing that manned warplane accidents spiked nearly 40 percent since 2013, the year the mandatory budget cuts took effect. At yesterday’s state of the Navy briefing, the publication’s Tara Copp put the question bluntly to Navy leaders: “What can you say to those families that really wonder if there’s an ‘I can’t say no’ culture in both the Navy and the Marine Corps that continues to send aviators out even if they’re not ready or their aircraft aren’t ready?”

The Navy’s top admiral insisted that all planes and pilots are mission-ready, or they aren’t sent into the sky. “These are controlled by strict regulations. We’re not violating any of those regulations. Those aircraft that we send pilots up in are fully certified to fly,” said Adm. John Richardson, the chief of naval operations.

ALL ACCIDENTS ARE DIFFERENT: Military leaders say trying to blame accidents on a single factor can be an exercise in the classic correlation-causation fallacy. “There is not enough data right now to tell you that there’s an exact correlation,” said Navy Secretary Richard V. Spencer, while admitting that with increased funding comes more pilot training hours and better aircraft maintenance, which should help. “But that,” he said, “is kind of a brilliant flash of the obvious.”

“There’s not one single thing. You can’t say, ‘It’s because of this,’ ” said Marine Corps Commandant Gen. Robert Neller. “And so we’re looking at all these different things. We need more hours, we need better parts support, we need new airplanes, we’ve got to improve our procedures, and we’ve got to stop doing stuff on the ground that causes us to lose otherwise perfectly good airplanes. And we need to train, and it’s a dangerous — it’s a dangerous business.”

Neller cited the crash of a KC-130T, a Marine Corps version of the C-130, last year in Mississippi that killed 16. The result of that crash investigation has not been released, but Neller said it was due to a “mechanical issue.”

“I think we have a pretty good idea of what happened to our airplane last year. In that particular case, I’m not sure funding would have changed the outcome,” Neller said. Reports at the time suggested ammunition exploded on board, bringing the plane down in mid-flight.

THE NAVY’S OPAQUE TAKE ON TRANSPARENCY: The Navy is scrambling to quell a firestorm of criticism from within its own active and retired ranks based on the revelation — first reported by USA Today — that the service has ended the practice of making a widely-distributed  announcement of the names of commanders relieved for poor performance or misconduct

When I initially contacted several former senior Navy public affairs officials, they expressed outrage that it appeared the Navy’s long tradition of transparency and accountability was being compromised. “Shortsighted,” said one former top Navy PAO. “Not in keeping with our core value of earning the trust and confidence of the American people,” said another.

But later in the day, after expressing their concerns directly to Navy officials, many tempered their criticism based on what they said was a more nuanced understanding of the policy, which it turns out had been quietly implemented last year.

A CHANGE IN PRACTICE, NOT POLICY: “It is not a change in policy,” the Navy’s acting Chief of Information Capt. Greg Hicks told me last night. Hicks said the Navy will continue to announce high-profile, nationally-newsworthy firings through press releases, including disciplinary actions that result from major accidents and scandals. But other lesser actions will be released initially to a much smaller group of reporters who regularly cover Navy issues, and then to anyone else who asks about it, known as an RTQ, or response to query.

“The [past] practice was a very wide distribution utilizing social media channels to an ever-expanding network of reporters,” Hicks said. “And now what we are doing is making sure we answer the people who have expressed that they want to know, but doing so in a way where we can also provide the context and framing and properly relay what happened, why it happened, to a professional cadre of military reporters.”

And Hicks said the adjustment was prompted by the dynamics of social media, and the desire to have complicated stories reported first by experienced knowledge-based journalists, and was not, as some had suggested, related to the Navy’s embarrassing “Fat Leonard” bribery scandal. “It had nothing to do with that at all,” Hicks said. “We are still going to release all those.”

Hick insists beat reporters will not have to call the Navy every day and ask, “Have you fired anyone today?”

‘OVERBLOWN’: The CNO’s take yesterday was that the whole controversy was “being overblown.”

“I think there’s, you know, perhaps being more made of that than you’ll see in practice,” Richardson said at yesterday’s Pentagon briefing. “The thing that we value most of all is a relationship with trust and confidence … with the American people. … So we wouldn’t do anything to jeopardize that.”

Good Thursday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre), National Security Writer Travis J. Tritten (@travis_tritten) and Senior Editor David Brown (@dave_brown24). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense.

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HAPPENING TODAY? Trump is hinting that the latest goodwill gesture from North Korea’s Kim Jong Un may be the release of three Americans who have been held since 2015 in one case, and since 2017 in the case of the other two. “As everybody is aware, the past Administration has long been asking for three hostages to be released from a North Korean Labor camp, but to no avail. Stay tuned!” Trump tweeted last night amid reports their release is imminent.

Reports from South Korean media indicated the three, Kim Dong-cheol, Kim Sang-deok and Kim Hak-seong were freed from a labor camp last month and are now receiving medical attention at a hotel in the outskirts of Pyongyang. U.S. officials have not confirmed that report.

INFO BOMB: The State Department is planning “to increase the flow of independent information into” North Korea, even as Trump and Kim work to arrange a historic summit aimed at dismantling Kim’s nuclear weapons program.

‘WE’RE THE MUJAHIDEEN’: Neller’s Marines are geared up for another fighting season in Afghanistan’s Helmand province, a place the service has toiled and spilled blood before. When asked about his plans this year by reporters at the Pentagon, Neller said he was hopeful about helping Afghans with a secure national election, but he had some tough words for Islamic extremists in the country. “The terrorists call themselves — you know, they’re the freedom fighters, they’re the mujahideen — they’re not. They’re criminals. I think the Arabic word is ‘takfiri.’ They’re apostates. They hide behind Islam. They sell drugs. They kill innocent people. That’s not what Islam is,” Neller said. “The Afghan army and the American [forces], we’re the mujahideen. We’re the mujahideen. That’s the message.”

ONE LESS GITMO PRISONER: The Department of Defense has announced the first release of a Guantanamo Bay detainee under Trump, who during the campaign promised to fill up the U.S. military-run prison camp. Ahmed Mohammed Ahmed Haza al-Darbi will be transferred from the U.S. detention center to his home country, Saudi Arabia, where he will serve out the rest of his 13-year sentence.

PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR THE IRAN DEAL: Support for the Iran deal among registered U.S. voters has hit an all-time high with just over a week to go before the Trump administration must decide whether to keep the country in the nuclear agreement, according to a Morning Consult/Politico poll released Wednesday.

The April 26-May 1 survey found 56 percent of voters approve of the Iran deal, while 26 percent do not. The poll comes after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu went before cameras to offer proof that Iran had lied about its pursuit of nuclear weapons before the Iran deal was struck in 2015.

Meanwhile Reuters — quoting two White House officials and a source familiar with the administration’s internal debate — reports Trump has “all but decided to withdraw from the 2015 Iran nuclear accord.” Exactly how “remains unclear.”

THE BIG PUSH FOR HASPEL: The White House is highlighting support for Gina Haspel among former spy chiefs, particularly those opposed to Trump, ahead of Haspel’s Senate confirmation hearing next week to be CIA director.

The strategy to woo Senate Democrats was rolled out in a Wednesday email blast, followed by a conference call. White House officials cited the backing of former Director of National Intelligence James Clapper, former CIA Director John Brennan, and former acting CIA Director Michael Morell.

THE RUNDOWN

Daily Beast: Trump’s Pentagon Opens Up Guantanamo Bay to New Prisoners

Air Force Times: Exchanges pull certain Chinese cellphones, other devices over security concerns

New York Times: Army Green Berets Secretly Help Saudis Combat Threat From Yemen Rebels

Talk Media News: Terrorists still have rail in their target sights

Navy Times: Is Secretary of Defense Mattis planning radical changes to how the Navy deploys?

Business Insider: The 15 countries with the highest military budgets in 2017

Army Times: The Army has more than a million pieces of gear in the old, digital camo pattern. They might try dyeing it.

Foreign Policy: Korea’s Nuclear Nightmare Hasn’t Gone Away

Defense News: Revealed: The Trump version of international diplomacy

New York Times: These Iraqi Farmers Said No to ISIS. When Night Came They Paid the Price.

USA Today: Hobby Lobby returns thousands of smuggled ancient artifacts to Iraq

Calendar

THURSDAY | MAY 3

8 a.m. 300 First Street SE. The Nuclear Deterrent Breakfast Series: The Emerging Strategic Environment. mitchellaerospacepower.org

8 a.m. 1667 K St. NW. Workshop: Comparing Defense Innovation in Advanced and Catch-up Countries. csbaonline.org

10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Japan’s Security Strategy: A Political Update from Nagata-cho. csis.org

11 a.m. Ground Truth Phone-in Briefing: Is North Korea Ready for Peace or Playing for Time? Wilsoncenter.org

12 noon Pentagon Briefing Room. Chief Spokesperson Dana White briefs the media. Live streamed on www.defense.gov/live.

12 noon. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. Will the Iran Nuclear Agreement Be Ended or Mended? heritage.org

4 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW. Cyber Risk Thursday: Building a Defensible Cyberspace. atlanticcouncil.org

6:30 p.m. 1301 Constitution Ave. NW. The Heroes of Military Medicine Awards with Gen. Joseph Votel, Commander of U.S. Central Command. hjfcp3.org

FRIDAY | MAY 4

9:15 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW. 2018 Atlantic Council-East Asia Foundation Strategic Dialogue, Scaling the Summits: The Future of a Denuclearized Korean Peninsula with Sen. Edward Markey. atlanticcouncil.org

2 p.m. Time for Action in the Western Balkans: Policy Prescriptions for American Diplomacy. usip.org

MONDAY | MAY 7

8:45 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Spring Summitry on the Korean Peninsula: Peace Breaking Out or Last Gasp Diplomacy? csis.org

9:30 a.m. 1501 Lee Hwy. An Air Force Operations Analysis Brief Discussion with Lt. Gen. Jerry Harris, Air Force Deputy Chief of Staff. mitchellaerospacepower.org

1 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Four Years of Sanctions: Assessing the Impact on the Russian Economy and Foreign Policy with Sen. Ben Cardin. csis.org

2 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. A Conversation about “The Odyssey of Echo Company: Looking back on Vietnam and the Tet Offensive” with author Doug Stanton. csis.org

2 p.m. 2301 Constitution Ave. NW. War by Other Means: Russian Disinformation Undermining Democracy, Spurring Conflict. usip.org

2 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. The Future of War and Challenges for Humanitarians with President of the ICRC Peter Maurer. wilsoncenter.org

TUESDAY | MAY 8

8 a.m. 2101 Wilson Blvd. S&ET Division Executive Breakfast. ndia.org

8:45 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. The Arctic of the Future: Strategic Pursuit or Great Power Miscalculation with Adm. Paul Zukunft, Commandant of the U.S. Coast Guard. csis.org

9 a.m. 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW. The Challenges of Governance and Security in North Africa and the Sahel. carnegieendowment.org

10 a.m. Rayburn 2172. Hearing on Confronting the Iranian Challenge. foreignaffairs.house.gov

10 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Book Discussion of “On Grand Strategy” with author John Lewis Gaddis. brookings.edu

10 a.m. 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW. The Rise of China’s Private Security Companies. carnegieendowment.org

11 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. The Future of Extremism after the Fall of ISIS. heritage.org

12 noon. Turkey’s Snap Elections: Erdogan’s Gambit (invite only). defenddemocracy.org

12 noon. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Syria: Should I Stay or Should I Go Now? hudson.org

5:30 p.m. 2425 Wilson Blvd. Rogers Strategic Issues Forum with Lt. Gen. Nadja West, the 44th Army Surgeon General. ausa.org

WEDNESDAY | MAY 9

9:30 a.m. Hart 216. Open Hearing: Nomination of Gina Haspel to be the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency. intelligence.senate.gov

10 a.m. Rayburn 2118. House Armed Services markup of the National Defense Authorization Act. armedservices.house.gov

12 noon. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Trump and the JCPOA: It’s the End of the World As We Know It? hudson.org

12:30 p.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW. Bridging the Growing Divide Among NPT States with the “Strategic” Elimination of Nuclear Weapons. stimson.org

2:30 p.m. Dirksen 342. Afghanistan in Review: Oversight of U.S. Spending in Afghanistan. hsgac.senate.gov

THURSDAY | MAY 10

9 a.m. 2345 Crystal Dr. Seminar on Blockchain Technology. ndia.org

9:30 a.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW. Dealing in Defense: Examining Trends in Global Arms Sales and World Military Expenditure. stimson.org

12:30 p.m. 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW. U.S.-Russia Relations With Michael McFaul and William Burns. carnegieendowment.org

2 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. The Future of U.S. Naval Power: A Conversation with Rep. Rob Wittman. hudson.org

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QUOTE OF THE DAY
“We’re the Mujahideen. We’re the Mujahideen. That’s the message.”
Marine Corps Commandant Gen. Robert Neller, at a Pentagon briefing, saying the American and Afghan government forces fighting the Taliban and ISIS are the real freedom fighters.

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