The overnight endorsements of former Vice President Joe Biden by two of his center-left rivals has boosted his chances in today’s Super Tuesday election and vaulted him over Sen. Bernie Sanders in two key states, according to an accurate artificial intelligence model tracked by Secrets.
In addition to indicating that Biden will now win Minnesota and North Carolina, the AI system called Polly has pushed Biden and Sanders into a virtual tie in Texas.
The changes in the race come after Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar and former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg withdrew from the race and endorsed Biden in a move interpreted as the Democratic Party’s bid to stop the Sanders surge.
The AI tool powered by Advanced Symbolics Inc. was updated late yesterday after the two withdrew.
The new results are also a blow to Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who falls behind Biden in some states, notably her own home of Massachusetts.
The new results and analysis from ASI chief scientist Kenton White in the states the company tested:
- In California, there was little change, with Sanders picking up three points and is now expected to beat Biden 39.2%-24.3%. White said, “Sanders is still forecast to win the state. Biden is now a clear second place.”
- In Maine, Biden’s victory will be even bigger than previously predicted. The current gap is 32.7% for Biden to 23.9% for Sanders and Warren. “With these developments, Biden’s victory is even stronger,” said White.
- In Massachusetts, Sanders is expected to embarrass Warren, who drops to third behind Biden. The current AI numbers are Sanders at 35.1%, Biden at 27.7%, and Warren at 21.5%.
- In North Carolina, Biden is now the favorite, jumping over Sanders due to the endorsements. The race is now 34.3% for Biden to 29.8% for Sanders. Previously, it was 29.1% for Sanders to 26.6% for Biden. “This is the biggest change. Previously, Sanders was forecast to win. Now, Biden is the favorite,” said White.
- In Texas, the endorsements boosted Biden into the margin of error. The AI model has Sanders at 31.7% and Biden at 30.6%. Said White, “Sanders is still forecast to win Texas, but Biden is within the margin of error. Texas could go to Biden in a close race.”
- In Colorado: Sanders is still forecast to win. There is now a three-way race between Biden, Michael Bloomberg, and Warren for second place.
- And in Minnesota, which Klobuchar was winning, Biden is now the leader over Sanders, 34.5% to 29.4%.
