CAUTIOUSLY CANCELING ‘WAR GAMES’: When President Trump announced he was putting an end to joint military exercises with South Korea two weeks ago, he used fairly unambiguous language. “We will be stopping the war games which will save us a tremendous amount of money,” Trump said in his post-summit news conference in Singapore.

HAPPENING TODAY: The House Rules Committee meets tonight at 5 p.m. to begin teeing up the $675 billion defense appropriations bill for 2019. The meeting is the first of two that will set the ground rules for the legislation on the House floor. The committee will consider which amendments get votes during an afternoon hearing on Tuesday. As we have reported here, more than 100 proposed amendments have been filed by lawmakers. They include proposals to add a second Gerald R. Ford-class aircraft carrier, block the Pentagon from housing immigrant children on bases, and increase the maintenance funding for A-10 Thunderbolt II aircraft.

HERITAGE ON THE TWO NDAAs: The Heritage Foundation has released a new analysis this morning of the two 2019 defense policy bills passed by the House and Senate. The paper by Tom Spoehr, the director of the think tank’s Center for National Defense, and a team of Heritage researchers and analysts weighs in on the chambers’ handling of the National Defense Authorization Act. Here are some of the opinions and recommendations in the policy report:

• F-35: Buy more. The think tank recommended in February that the military buy 100 of the F-35 joint strike fighters built by Lockheed Martin. But the Senate bill cuts two from the Pentagon’s request for 77, while the House fully backed the request. “The F-35 is the best fighter in the world, and the U.S. should be taking full advantage of this dominant capability. Congress should authorize no fewer than 77 JSF in 2019 — and optimally, more,” the Heritage paper says.
• JSTARS: Don’t stand in the Air Force’s way. The service wants to retire the aging fleet of E-8C Joint Surveillance Target Attack Radar System aircraft, or JSTARS. But the House has blocked that and even proposed $623 million to replace the fleet with new planes. The Senate also blocked retirement but would allow the Air Force to pursue an alternative system. “The Senate version is close to the answer but did not go far enough: The Air Force should be allowed to begin the retirement of the E-8C and to accelerate its replacement, the Advanced Battle Management System,” according to the paper.
• LCS: The Navy requested a single littoral combat ship for 2019 as it transitions to a new frigate, and the Senate backed that in its bill. But the House NDAA authorizes three of the small surface ships. Heritage notes that the LCS has “disturbingly limited capabilities against a near-peer adversary” but found that a compromise number might be best. “The Senate version of the bill did not add any additional LCS. However, it should add one additional LCS to properly maintain both LCS shipyards until the Fiscal Year 2020 frigate award.”

ALSO TODAY: Mattis is in Alaska, the first leg of a six-day trip to China, South Korea and Japan. While in Alaska he’s inspecting U.S. missiles defenses at Fort Greely, the ground-based interceptors that would be used to shoot down incoming missiles from North Korea in the event of an attack

It’s Mattis’ seventh trip to the region, but his first to China. In fact, it’s the first visit of a U.S. defense secretary to China since 2014.

Mattis’ visit comes at a time of rising tensions. While the Trump administration needs Beijing’s help pressuring North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons, tensions between the U.S. and China are on the rise. Trump is engaged in a trade war with China. The Pentagon is accusing Beijing of stealing U.S. technology and intellectual property. And the U.S. military is no longer exercising with China’s navy.

Mattis, while giving a speech in Singapore in June, was sharply critical of Chinese military activity on islands built on top of reefs in the South China Sea, accusing Beijing of “intimidation and coercion.” But Mattis has told reporters traveling with him he won’t be confronting China directly. “I want to go in and do a lot of listening,” he said. “I want to go in right now without basically poisoning the well at this point. I’m going there to have a conversation.”

NORTH KOREA STILL A THREAT: There’s what the president says when he’s talking or tweeting off the cuff: “There is no longer a Nuclear Threat from North Korea,” he tweeted the day after his summit with Kim Jong Un.

And then there’s what the White House says in its formal notification to Congress extending a state of “national emergency” created by North Korea’s nuclear weapons program, which is required to maintain sanctions.

According to the notice, “the existence and risk of proliferation of weapons-usable fissile material on the Korean Peninsula and the actions and policies of the Government of North Korea continue to pose an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security, foreign policy, and economy of the United States.”

WAITING FOR SOME SIGNS: Again, despite the president’s assertion last week that “total denuclearization … is already starting taking place,” the U.S. is still looking for signs that Kim is living up to his side of the bargain. That includes a promise to destroy a missile engine production facility and begin the return of remains of U.S. troops who died in the Korean War.

“We are preparing to receive and transport remains in a dignified manner when we get the call to do so,” tweeted U.S. Forces Korea, the account representing military forces in South Korea. The United States is expected to send 100 wooden transfer cases to the Demilitarized Zone between North and South Korea in the hope of taking custody of the first repatriated remains.

THEY KNOW WHAT THEY HAVE TO DO: It may not be spelled out in the document signed by Trump and Kim after their historic summit, but North Korea knows what has to come next, Pompeo said in an interview Friday. “This is not the first rodeo negotiating with North Korea,” Pompeo said on MSNBC. “I think it is fair to say that there are a number of things, a number of principles that have been agreed to, that I think both parties understand, red lines, things that we — neither country is prepared to go past that give us an opportunity to believe that … perhaps this time is different.”

“We know, too, we could be wrong,” Pompeo said. “If it’s the case that Chairman Kim either is unable to or unprepared to denuclearize, sanctions will remain in place, the enforcement of those sanctions will continue, and we’ll be back hard at it if the negotiations prove to be either not in good faith or unproductive.”

MILITARY HANDING OVER SPACE JUNK OPS: The Commerce Department could take over the U.S. military’s job of managing dangerous space junk within a year, Secretary Wilbur Ross said. “Hard to predict exactly what the timeline would be, but it’s probably something more or less on the order of a year to make a seamless transition between the two,” Ross said in testimony to a joint hearing by members of the House Armed Services and Science, Space and Technology committees last week. Days after Trump ordered the handover, Commerce Department officials were planning trips to U.S. Strategic Command headquarters and Vandenberg Air Force Base to figure out how to manage space traffic and advise the public on the tens of thousands of pieces of orbiting debris.

The Pentagon has handled the role since the Cold War. The administration now expects the number of U.S. satellites to grow from 800 to more than 15,000 over the next few years, increasing the possibility of dangerous collisions. “These objects fly around Earth at dangerous speeds of up to 17,500 miles per hour, about 10 times the speed of a small bullet,” Ross said. “Even more concerning are the estimated 600,000 smaller objects that could still cause significant harm if a collision occurred.”

The Pentagon should not be in charge of space traffic management, but the handoff to the Commerce Department needs to be done carefully, Gen. John Hyten, the leader of U.S. Strategic Command, said during his testimony to the joint hearing. “As we go into this different sharing arrangement though, I think the first rule that comes to mind is the first rule of wing-walking, and that is you don’t let go of the strut until you have a good hold of the next strut, which means we can’t let loose of what we have now and what we are doing until we know what is on the other side,” Hyten said.

BIG SPACEX CONTRACT: The U.S. Air Force has awarded Elon Musk’s SpaceX a $130 million contract for a future satellite launch, the first major classified deal for the company’s Falcon Heavy rocket.

SpaceX will help to launch the Air Force Space Command (AFSPC)-52 satellite set to launch in fiscal year 2020 from the Kennedy Space Center in Florida. The Hawthorne, Calif.-based company will provide “launch vehicle production, mission integration and launch operations,” the Air Force said in a statement.

A-29 CRASH FATALITY: The Navy identified the pilot killed in Friday’s A-29 crash as Lt. Christopher Carey Short, from Canandaigua, N.Y.

Short died when the Super Tucano crashed in the Red Rio Bombing Range, which lies within the White Sands Missile Range, according to a statement released by the Navy. The backseater suffered minor injuries and was taken to a local hospital, but that person’s name and condition were not immediately available to the public, per Fox News.

The pair were taking part in a demonstration as the Air Force decides whether the Super Tucano, produced by Sierra Nevada/Embraer, or the Textron Aviation AT-6 Wolverine will be chosen for a new fleet of light attack aircraft.

WAR OF ATTRITION IN AFGHANISTAN: Anthony Cordesman, the highly respected military strategist at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, has released a new report on Afghanistan, and it serves as a sober counterpoint to some of the enthusiasm about the prospects for peace in the wake of a successful three-day cease-fire honored by the Taliban. “In spite of a brief Ramadan ceasefire, peace seems no closer now than it has at any point in the past, Cordesman writes.

“The conflict has become a war of attrition which can drag on indefinitely, and can only be ended through some form of peace negotiation or the sudden, unexpected collapse of either Afghan government or threat forces — a transition from a war of attrition to a war of exhaustion on one side,” he concludes. “There is little prospect that a combination of Afghan government, U.S., and allied forces can defeat the Taliban and other insurgent and terrorist forces, or that the Afghan government, U.S., and allied forces will be defeated by them.”

UNHOLY ALLIANCE: Among the signs of possible trouble for the U.S. in Iraq is news from over the weekend that outgoing Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi and anti-American cleric Moqtada al-Sadr have said they would form a political alliance. Abadi’s Victory Alliance came in third in Iraq’s parliamentary elections while Sadr’s political bloc came in first.

Iraq has not yet formed a coalition government, and Abadi, who has been a reliable partner and welcomed the presence of U.S. troops in his country, is set to step down July 1. Sadr, once a bitter foe of the U.S., has cast himself as a secular nationalist opposed to both the U.S. and Iranian presence in Iraq.

AND THEN THERE’S ERDOGAN: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan captured just over half the votes in a six-way race avoiding a run-off and securing another five-year term, while also assuming sweeping new powers that will allow him to effectively rule by decree.

The Sunday presidential and parliamentary elections followed a referendum last year that eliminated the prime minister’s office and consolidated all executive powers in the presidency, with few checks and balances.

“The Turkish leader, who is accused by critics of adopting increasingly authoritarian tactics but is loved by supporters for bringing prosperity and stability, may be facing rough times ahead, however. Analysts predict an economic downturn amid rising inflation and a struggling currency,” reports the AP. “His win could deepen Turkey’s rift with Western allies, who are already concerned by setbacks in democracy and human rights as well as Turkey’s closer ties with Russia.”

THE RUNDOWN

Washington Examiner: Pompeo: Iran will face ‘wrath of entire world’ if it ramps up nuke program

Washington Examiner: Syrian army escalates offensive against rebels in southwest region

Wall Street Journal: Trump Plans New Curbs On Chinese Investment, Tech Exports To China

Washington Post: If they needed to fend off war with Russia, U.S. military leaders worry they might not get there in time

Defense News: As threats mount, US Navy grapples with costly Ballistic Missile Defense mission

Defense One: An Extraordinarily Expensive Way to Fight ISIS

Military.com: Army is Spending Half a Billion to Train Troops to Fight Underground

New York Times: Pakistan’s Taliban Names New Leader After U.S. Drone Strike

Foreign Policy: The Countries Where F-35 Sales Are Taking Off

Politico: Tony Blair calls on United States to stand by Europe

Navy Times: The Navy’s top enlisted leader is gone. What’s next?