What many rivals and pundits viewed as a primary election weakness could actually be an electoral advantage for Joe Biden against President Trump in the fall.
Vanquished 2020 Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders, for one, was always quick to criticize Biden, now the presumptive nominee, for failing to excite younger voters. The Vermont senator would trumpet his success at scooping up support from the demographic, despite weaker turnout compared with 2016. He’d also routinely tout his creation of a “movement.”
Other opponents, including former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, California Sen. Kamala Harris, ex-Obama administration Housing Secretary Julian Castro, and California Rep. Eric Swalwell, took direct and indirect swipes at the two-term vice president and 36-year Delaware senator over his age when they were still in the race. Voters in the early-nominating states of Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada voiced their concerns too.
But Biden’s affinity with those in the upper age brackets could help him defeat the White House incumbent when the pair go head-to-head in November’s general election.
An early poll this week out of Florida, home to many “snowbird” retirees and 29 Electoral College votes, was a red flag for Trump that his reelection campaign may be tougher than his contest against Hillary Clinton in 2016 since he’s running against a more likable, though still flawed Democrat. The Quinnipiac University survey found Biden winning voters older than 65, 52% to 42%. Although that margin will tighten during the next six months, Trump dominated with seniors, 57% to Clinton’s 40%, four years ago, according to exit polls.
The trend in Florida is emerging in other important swing states. Fox News reported similarly disappointing results for Trump in Michigan and Pennsylvania this week with voters 45 and older and baby boomers, yet the outlet’s polls showed the president is neck and neck with Biden in Florida among both of those age groups. In national research, however, he still has an edge on Biden. In this week’s the Economist/YouGov study, he leads 53% to 42% with voters 65-plus.
Some pollsters attribute Trump’s waning support to his coronavirus pandemic response, which has disproportionately affected seniors. The president’s at times erratic handling of the outbreak appears to have rattled the voting bloc, even with the crisis sidelining Biden, who’s obeying a stay-at-home order in his state of Delaware. COVID-19 also puts healthcare back on the political agenda, an issue that boosted Democrats in taking back the House in the 2018 midterm cycle. A weak economy may eventually override that priority, though.
Biden’s half-century in politics has made him a familiar face to more seasoned generations. But Republicans believe that’s a double-edged sword, given his long and sometimes controversial public record on topics such as trade and China, which they can leverage in purple states with older, blue-collar workers.
At the same time, his overtures to Sanders supporters on policies such as climate change and free college risk alienating his traditional allies. Trump, however, makes the calculus less difficult for Biden. The majority of young people aren’t eager to vote for the former real estate mogul and reality TV star, according to this week’s Harvard Public Opinion Project. Yet while Biden doesn’t need to persuade them to cast a ballot for him, he still needs to convince them to head to the polls.
For the University of Southern California’s Christian Grose, Biden would ideally appeal to both younger and older voters, but he has better odds of overperforming among seniors.
“While there is often an emphasis on turning out young voters among Democrats, the fact is older voters show up at much higher rates. It is unlikely Biden wins by turning out young voters, but he will have a chance to defeat Trump if he can peel off some more support among vote-rich seniors in states like Florida,” Grose told the Washington Examiner.
