President Joe Biden says he wants to spend more time outside the White House in 2022, but if it’s to hit the campaign trail, he may have a difficult time filling his schedule ahead of the midterm elections.
Several high-profile Democratic candidates have already skipped out on appearing with Biden, including Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams and Pennsylvania Democrats John Fetterman and Josh Shapiro. Texas gubernatorial hopeful Beto O’Rourke has said he’s “not interested” in help from Biden, and Florida Senate candidate Val Demings answered that she was “running [her] race” when asked if she wanted Biden to campaign with her.
ECONOMIC SATISFACTION PLUNGED DURING BIDEN’S FIRST YEAR: GALLUP POLL
To the president’s critics, it all adds up to one more sign that he’s failing.
“Moderate Democrats in purple and red states don’t want to be associated with President Biden because his failed presidency will drag down their electoral chances,” said Alfredo Ortiz, president and CEO of Job Creators Network. “The avoidance of the president by members of his own party is perhaps the biggest proof that his presidency has been a disaster.”
And it’s no wonder why, Ortiz added.
“The Biden administration shows no urgency in addressing historic inflation that is resulting in falling real wages and living standards for ordinary Americans. Congressional Democrats are facing a catastrophe in the midterms, and they have President Biden to blame,” he said.
The president’s poll numbers don’t bode well for a rallying figure, especially in the swing states of Pennsylvania, Georgia, or Florida where Republicans are looking to gain ground. His average approval rating sits at 41.3%, with some polls placing it below 40%.
Aside from event snubs, some candidates are choosing to campaign with Hillary Clinton instead, and others even avoid tweeting about the commander in chief, according to Axios.
But the campaign shunning, while certainly not positive for the president, isn’t uncommon during midterm elections, according to American Enterprise Institute senior fellow John Fortier.
“We’ve had many presidents find themselves not so popular in midterm elections, especially in the first midterm,” said Fortier. “There’s often turf in parts of the country where people aren’t thrilled about the president coming to visit.”
Fortier recalled former President George W. Bush getting snubbed by Charlie Crist when the latter was running for governor of Florida in 2006. That fall, Republicans lost 31 seats in the House. Four years later, Democrats lost 63 House seats in what former President Barack Obama famously described as “a shellacking.” Republicans lost 41 seats and control of the House in 2018 following two turbulent years under former President Donald Trump, and Democrats are expected to face the same fate in 2022.
It’s a trend that dates all the way back to the 1840s, Fortier said, with the president’s party losing seats in every midterm save for rare exceptions such as 1934, 1998, and 2002, all of which saw the incumbent party gain less than 10 seats. In swing states or divided districts, that trend means Biden is best avoided right now.
And unlike Trump, whose endorsement was often crucial in Republican primaries, Biden holds no such sway over his party.
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
“There are now more progressive primary challenges from the left in the Democratic Party,” said Fortier. “Biden is still the head of the party. He definitely has some influence, but it’s less public.”
Biden is not identified with the left-most wing of his party, at least among Democrats. In such situations, Democratic candidates may be wise to focus more on local issues and try to distinguish themselves from the president, much the way Republican Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin kept Trump at an arm’s length in 2021.
“Most of the Democratic Party still likes Joe Biden, but some parts of the party, and in some regions, that’s going to be tricky,” said Fortier. “If the election were held today, Biden’s low approval numbers would lead to a large number of election losses for Democrats.”
