While Republican strategists fear the bitter 35-day partial government shutdown will sink White House legislative priorities like infrastructure and changes to prescription drug pricing, some believe President Trump has a chance to score victories, despite five weeks of anger and ill will.
“What we have seen is so fractious and so bitterly partisan that it’s difficult to see how that comes together,” said Lanhee Chen, Hoover Institution fellow and policy director of Mitt Romney’s 2016 presidential campaign.
But some see a path. “The shutdown could break the fever in Washington,” said Alex Conant, a Republican strategist and former aide to Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla. “Having gone through this standoff, it’s possible that members might not want to spend the next two years on repeat. No one came to Washington to shut the place down.”
“It’s in everyone’s interest to pass prescription drug legislation, some sort of infrastructure legislation, possibly affordable housing or even some tweaking of tax reform,” Conant said.
Trump expressed optimism following the Nov. 6 midterm elections — after which Democrats took control of the House — about working with them on a bevy of issues, including infrastructure, trade, and cutting the cost of prescription drugs.
But the government shutdown halted work in Congress on other issues, and more divisive, legislation-halting battles loom. A debt-ceiling deadline is also approaching, and the Senate has to confirm a number of nominees.
“The legislative priorities of both sides have been bottle-necked because of the shutdown,” veteran GOP strategist Ron Bonjean said. “Either side, both the White House and Democrats, have a sour taste in their mouths, and it’s not a great way to get started. … We’re starting off in a knife fight, which would usually occur in an election year,” Bonjean said.
GOP strategist and former Republican National Committee Communications Director Douglas Heye said Trump’s legislative agenda for 2019 could hinge on the ability of Congress and the White House to avert a second shutdown this year.
“If that happens, then that should bode well for bipartisan agreement moving forward, infrastructure being the most likely. Prescription drugs is rife with more disagreement, but it still should bode well for them,” he told the Washington Examiner. “If in three weeks we’re exactly where we are today or worse, where we were a few days ago, then that certainly suggests there’s nothing that’s going on a bipartisan basis.”
Trump has given Congress three weeks to negotiate a deal that would provide funding for a southern border wall.
Similarly, the president’s relationship with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., in the coming weeks could also affect his ability to govern.
“The real question is how contentious are the shutdown fights?” Republican strategist Evan Siegfried said. “If there’s another shutdown and the relationship with Pelosi and Schumer completely disintegrates, and even with House and Senate Republicans, if that relationship is frayed enough, then it really could hurt his ability to get infrastructure done.”
Chen agreed that Trump’s proposal for addressing the rising cost of prescription drugs should be “appealing” to some Democrats. The blueprint, released in May 2018, included plans that would speed up the approval of generics and have drug companies post prices in commercials.
Further complicating efforts, though, is the upcoming 2020 presidential election and the new Democratic freshman class, which is already shaking up Capitol Hill. Many are partisan liberals, and their outlook could prevent Democratic leaders from moving to the middle to strike deals.
“Anytime you’re getting closer to a presidential election cycle, the politics change dramatically,” Chen said. “With respect to the freshman class, that’s where all the energy is for the Democrats. Naturally, they’re driving the conversation, driving the agenda, driving the nature of the response to the president’s policy proposals.”
