With prospects for recapturing the House majority dwindling, Republicans are scrambling to prevent the Democrats from running up the score Nov. 3 and putting the speaker’s gavel further out of reach.
House Republicans entered the 2020 cycle hopeful. Needing 17 seats to win back the majority after a two-year hiatus, they charted a path back to power through several districts that Democrats flipped in midterm elections but that supported President Trump in 2016. But as Election Day approaches, House Republicans are hamstrung by challenges similar to those afflicting their Senate colleagues.
Incumbent House Democrats are significantly outraising Republican challengers, many of whom are struggling against political headwinds fanned by Trump. Those difficulties, exacerbated by Trump’s struggles against Democratic nominee Joe Biden since their first televised debate in late September, have led nonpartisan political prognosticators to conclude that Democrats are likely to expand their majority.
“Democrats are going to maintain their majority in the House in almost every imaginable scenario,” said Nathan Gonzales, publisher of the handicapper Inside Elections. “The bigger questions are whether Democrats will expand their majority, and by how much?”
Gonzales projects Democrats could stand pat or flip up to 11 Republican-held seats. The Cook Political Report projects Democratic pickups could reach 15 seats. Republican strategists involved in House races say the best-case scenario for the GOP is to hold House losses to zero or the low single digits. They are bracing for the worst, although it will not come close to the 40-seat wipeout from two years ago that cost them the majority.
“The past two weeks have been an unmitigated disaster for Republican House and Senate campaigns, with the president’s COVID test and hospitalization compounding a disastrous debate performance,” a GOP strategist said.
Democrats are bullish on holding the majority but are circumspect about making major gains.
Democratic strategists expect the party might lose a few House seats but expect to win more than they shed, saying a “great” election night would entail growing their caucus by five seats. Similar to the 2018 campaign, House Democrats are running on healthcare. They are convinced that Trump’s vow to repeal Obamacare in the middle of the coronavirus pandemic is the issue that is most damaging to Republican challengers and the GOP incumbents on their target list.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is running television advertising on the topic in such diverse districts as the at-large seat in Montana, where Trump is expected to beat Biden, and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, a suburban Omaha seat. There, Biden is favored over Trump, and incumbent Republican Rep. Don Bacon is in trouble against Democrat Kara Eastman. Nebraska awards Electoral College votes per congressional district.
Democrats also are crediting Biden’s moderate image for improving existing opportunities to pick up seats and bolstering their defensive position in districts won in 2018. The party is targeting GOP-held suburban districts in Dallas, Houston, Indianapolis, and St. Louis and is encouraged by the strength of Democratic incumbents in districts in Charleston, South Carolina, Oklahoma City, and southern New Mexico.
“We’d be content keeping the majority,” a Democratic operative said. “We’re not expecting [gains of] double-digits.”
House Republicans, fighting for a draw, are optimistic that they will win some Democratic seats to stem their losses elsewhere.
They are on offense in the inland, central California 21st District; the coastal, southwest Oregon 4th District, and the western Wisconsin 3rd District. All three have for years tended to vote Democrat for Congress, but the incumbents there are on their heels against quality Republican challengers. However, signs of trouble for the GOP are unmistakable.
The party is pouring money into Alaska and Montana. Republicans are on the ropes in additional seats in districts Trump won in 2016: Arkansas’s 2nd District just north of Little Rock; veteran Republican Rep. Fred Upton is defending his seat in Michigan’s 6th District; the open western Michigan 3rd District is being vacated by Republican-turned-Independent Rep. Justin Amash; and Virginia’s rural 5th District is another open-seat contest.
Congressional Leadership Fund, the super PAC aligned with House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, raised $77.4 million in the third quarter. The haul was a record for the group and is helping House Republicans compensate for the DCCC’s large fundraising advantage over the National Republican Congressional Committee.
“The environment has gotten tougher, so we’re playing defense on an expanded defensive map,” said a GOP operative involved in House races. “But we still feel very optimistic in races where we are on offense. There are some surprising opportunities.”
