‘THE SMELL OF GUNPOWDER’: After ignoring multiple private entreaties by the new Biden administration to engage in discussions over the stalled denuclearization talks, North Korea timed its first public pronouncement to coincide with the arrival of Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin in Tokyo.
In a statement carried by North Korea’s state-run Korean Central News Agency, Kim Jong Un’s sister castigated South Korea for conducting scaled-down military exercises and warned the U.S. against spreading “the smell of gunpowder on our land from across the ocean.”
“If it wants to sleep in peace for the coming four years, it had better refrain from causing a stink at its first step,” said Kim Yo Jong, according to an English translation on the website KCNAwatch.
The U.S. has avoided large-scale “war games” that North Korea has complained are provocative rehearsals for an invasion of the North by the South. Instead, the drills have been largely confirmed to “table-top” exercises and computer simulations.
“The South Korean authorities, accustomed to paying lip-service, are busy billing the drill as ‘annual’ and ‘defensive one’ and a computer-based simulation drill, as in the past,” said Kim’s powerful sister in the statement. “They say that the drill involves no actual maneuvers with its scale and contents drastically ‘reduced.’ Perhaps, they are expecting ‘flexible judgment’ and ‘understanding’ from us, but it is, indeed, ridiculous, impudent, and stupid.”
NO REPLY: After some initial progress, talks with North Korea broke down over a year ago over the refusal of the Trump administration to grant gradual sanctions relief in return for incremental steps aimed at dismantling Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons and long-range missile programs.
The Biden administration has tried unsuccessfully to get the dialog going again.
“To reduce the risk of escalation, we’ve reached out to the North Korean government through several channels starting in February, including in New York,” said State Department Deputy Spokesperson Jalina Porter yesterday. “And to date, we’ve not received any response from Pyongyang. This follows over a year without actual dialogue with North Korea despite several attempts by the U.S. to engage.”
In an interview on Fox, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo called on the Biden administration not to let up on the economic pressure on the Kim regime.
“I hope that this administration will engage with North Korea with the same massive sanctions regime that we did, which put real pressure on Chairman Kim to come to the table,” Pompeo told Fox Business anchor Stuart Varney. “We made some good progress. We didn’t get all the way. We got them to cease long-range missile testing, a big deal for the United States of America and our security. We got them to cease nuclear testing.”
‘JUST MORE BLUSTER’: The bellicose rhetoric about the “provocative” military exercises is a transparent pretext to try to divide the U.S.-Republic of Korea alliance, says David Maxwell, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. In a commentary published last week, Maxwell, a retired Special Forces colonel, anticipated the North Korean reaction to the modest drills and argued canceling them would be a mistake.
“North Korea is not threatened by these exercises and its actions in response to them have only one objective: to drive a wedge in the ROK/U.S. alliance, with the ultimate goal of removing U.S. troops from the peninsula. If U.S. troops cannot train, they cannot effectively complete their mission,” Maxwell wrote. “To not conduct training would be the height of irresponsibility, because it would put the ROK at great risk, especially as North Korea completes its Winter Training Cycle now at its highest state of readiness.”
“This latest angry statement is just more bluster,” says Harry Kazianis, a Korea expert at the Center for the National Interest. “North Korea has very little to complain about and makes absolutely no sense why they are angry about these small military drills that the U.S. and the ROK are holding that are really nothing more than a big computer simulation.”
“My worry is once North Korea has the new Biden Administration policy review in hand — that will likely be an attempt to reinforce at least some sanctions actions against the DPRK — Kim will feel emboldened to respond with a slow ramp-up of military provocations,” Kazianis said in an email. “In fact, I would not be shocked if by the summer or fall we were once again looking at North Korean ICBM test pictures going viral on social media — and another crisis in the offing.”
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HAPPENING TODAY: Adm. Craig Faller, commander, U.S. Southern Command; and Air Force Gen. Glen VanHerck, commander, U.S. Northern Command, testify at 9:30 a.m. before the Senate Armed Services Committee on their budget needs for fiscal year 2022 and the Future Years Defense program.
ALSO TODAY: Acting Secretary of the Army John Whitley provides opening remarks at 9:30 a.m., and Army Chief of Staff Gen. James McConville provides keynote remarks at 12 noon at the virtual Association of the U.S. Army 2021 Global Force Next virtual symposium and exposition.
CAPITOL SECURITY PERIMETER TO SHRINK: Bowing to pressure from lawmakers and acknowledging there is no current threat to the U.S. Capitol, Timothy Blodgett, the acting House sergeant-at-arms, said yesterday that an outer perimeter security fence will be dismantled, and the gradual drawdown of National Guard troops will begin.
In a memo to members of Congress, Blodgett cited a new intelligence assessment from the U.S. Capitol Police that “there does not exist a known, credible threat against Congress or the Capitol Complex that warrants the temporary security fencing.”
“Therefore, alterations to the temporary fencing around the Capitol will soon be made, and the National Guard presence will also begin to draw down,” said House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in a letter to colleagues. “However, the USCP will continue to monitor the threat posture, and plans will be adjusted if and as needed.”
The fence is not going away entirely. An inner fence will still surround the Capitol grounds on all sides, but the razor wire will be removed from the top, and streets surrounding the Capitol will be reopened to traffic.
“The new positioning will move the fence closer to the Capitol building and will provide access to the avenues and some of the sidewalks,” said Blodgett. The inner perimeter fencing will remain around Capitol Square as the [Architect of the Capitol] continues to make necessary security repairs to the Capitol building.”
A security review completed after the Jan. 6 insurrection recommended expensive permanent fencing that would remain unobtrusively hidden until needed.
“As the fencing comes down, we recommend it be replaced with a mobile fencing option that is easily erected and deconstructed and an integrated, retractable fencing system in the long term to secure both the Capitol building and congressional office buildings,” said the report prepared by retired Army Lt. Gen. Russel Honore. “Such a solution could enable an open campus while giving security forces better options to protect the complex and its members should a threat develop.”
JAPAN ‘CORNERSTONE’ OF ASIA-PACIFIC ALLIANCE: In a joint appearance in Tokyo today with Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said it was “no accident that we chose Japan for the first Cabinet-level overseas travel of the Biden-Harris administration.”
“For more than 50 years, as you noted, our alliance has been a cornerstone for our peace, security, and prosperity — not only for our two countries, but for the region, and indeed for the world,” said Blinken, who is in Tokyo along with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on an alliance fence-mending mission. “Secretary Austin and I are here for one central but important purpose: to reaffirm our commitment to the alliance, and also to build up Japan and the United States, our deepening cooperation, on the key issues of our time.
Blinken not only wants to put relations between the U.S. and Japan on an even keel, but he also wants to smooth relations between Japan and South Korea, the two countries the U.S. relies on to counter North Korea. “My next stop with Secretary Austin is in Seoul, and I hope we can find ways to strengthen our trilateral cooperation — something I worked on when I was last in government.”
“But what brings us together, I think, is a shared vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific region, and we will work together as allies and friends to help achieve it,” Blinken said. “One key element of this is the denuclearization of North Korea. We will continue to work on that as friends and partners.”
AFGHANISTAN ‘MAIN ISSUE’ AT UPCOMING NATO MEETING: With just 46 days before the withdrawal deadline for the U.S. and NATO troops from Afghanistan, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said this morning a decision on whether to leave or stay will be the main issue when NATO foreign ministers meet in person in Brussels one week from today.
“We will assess, we will monitor, we will consult, and then we will make the decisions as we move forward together as 30 allies.”
Stoltenberg’s comments came at a news conference in which he released his annual report on the alliance for 2020.
“The report includes the results of new polls on the public perception of the alliance,” said NATO in a statement. “These demonstrate that, in a year of upheaval, overall support for the NATO alliance, the transatlantic bond and collective defence remains strong.”
US TO ATTEND AFGHAN PEACE TALKS IN MOSCOW
SHOULD BIOWEAPONS TREATY ADDRESS PANDEMICS? Members of the Biological Weapons Convention are set to meet this fall for an every-five-year review conference, a forum that should consider the implications of the current pandemic and preparations for and response to the possibility of deliberate biological attack, says Daniel Gerstein of the RAND Corporation.
While the jury is still out about whether the virus escaped from a laboratory in Wuhan, China, where coronavirus research was underway, the treaty could be a vehicle to provide greater scrutiny of the institutions.
“In light of COVID-19, perhaps now is the right time to revisit the 46-year-old treaty and make it a better tool against future biological threats, including both deliberate biological attacks and pandemics,” Gerstein writes in the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists.
“The pandemic suggests several related areas for bioweapons treaty members to consider and debate. For example, how has the threshold for a deliberate attack been affected by COVID-19?” he says. “Bioweapons treaty members should examine how the threat of biological weapons may have evolved as a result of these uneven responses to COVID-19. Have countries or perhaps terrorist organizations, seeing the death and disruption caused by COVID-19, come to view biological weapons as a more powerful way of achieving their goals? Or have they been dissuaded by the fact that diseases like COVID-19 seem difficult to target or control?”
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The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Kim Jong Un’s sister warns Biden administration against ‘causing a stink’
Washington Examiner: US to attend Afghan peace talks in Moscow
Washington Examiner: House Republicans say Biden border policies are causing smuggling of people from all over the world
Washington Examiner: Two men charged with chemical spray assault of officer Brian Sicknick
Washington Examiner: Marine Corps aviation museum to close doors after brass cuts funding
Air Force Magazine: Pilots Could Be Eligible for Up to $420K to Stay in Service
Navy Times: Vaccine fears: Why inoculating the force will be difficult
AP: U.S. Navy Transits To Counter China Increased Sharply Under Trump
Politico: U.S. Warns Of China’s Growing Threat To Taiwan
Wall Street Journal: U.S. Deploys Coast Guard To Counter Beijing Moves
Yonhap: South Korea, U.S. To Initial Defense Cost-Sharing Deal After ‘Two Plus Two’ Meeting
Military.com: Navy Still Considering Bringing Back U.S. 1st Fleet
Defense News: Virginia Lawmakers Prepare To Battle The Pentagon Over A Potential Cut To The Carrier Fleet
The Guardian: Cap On Trident Nuclear Warhead Stockpile To Rise By More Than 40%
Agence France Presse: Iran ‘Considering All Options’ After Ship ‘Sabotage’
AP: Once held in Iranian jail, ex-Marine fights espionage claims
Air Force Magazine: ‘Accelerated Path to Wings’ Graduates First Class of Pilots
Air Force Magazine: F-22 Experiences In-Flight Emergency, Ground Mishap at Eglin
The Drive: Top British F-35 Pilot On How His Fledgling Team Is Forging Its Own Path Forward
Washington Examiner: Opinion: An exit strategy for the F-35 debacle
Calendar
TUESDAY | MARCH 16
6:15 a.m. — NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg news conference to release his annual report for 2020. https://www.nato.int
9 a.m. — Association of the U.S. Army Global Force Next three day virtual symposium and exposition: ”Protecting Tomorrow through Persistent Modernization.” Speakers over the three days include Gen. John Murray, commanding general, U.S. Army Futures Command; John Whitley, the acting Army secretary; Gen. James McConville, Army chief of staff; and Gen. Edward Daly, commanding general, U.S. Army Materiel Command. Agenda here: https://www.ausa.org/sites Register here: https://ausa.force.com
9 a.m. — Intelligence National Security Alliance virtual “Coffee and Conversation” discussion with Rear Adm. Andrew Sugimoto, assistant commandant for intelligence at the Coast Guard, about Coast Guard intelligence collection activities. https://www.insaonline.org/event
9:30 a.m. G50, Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on U.S Southern and Northern Commands, with Adm. Craig Faller, commander, U.S. Southern Command; and Air Force Gen. Glen VanHerck, commander, U.S. Northern Command and North American Aerospace Defense Command. https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings
10 a.m. — Mitchell Institute virtual Aerospace Nation panel discussion: “Airborne Augmented Reality,” with Robert “Otis” Winkler, staff, Senate Armed Services Committee; retired Gen. Mike Holmes, former commander, Air Combat Command and chairman of the board of Red 6; and Dan Robinson, founder and CEO of Red 6. https://www.mitchellaerospacepower.org
11 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Intelligence and Special Operations Hearing: “Disinformation in the Gray Zone: Opportunities, Limitations, and Challenges, with David Taylor, performing the duties of undersecretary of defense for intelligence and security; and Christopher Maier, acting assistant secretary of defense, special operations/low-intensity conflict. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
11 a.m. — House Oversight Subcommittee on National Security hearing “The Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction’s 2021 High-Risk List,” with John Sopko, special inspector general for Afghanistan reconstruction. https://oversight.house.gov/legislation/hearings
1 p.m. — Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments webinar: “Maritime Competition and the Maritime Strategy,” with Jonathan Caverley, professor of strategy at the U.S. Naval War College: Fiona Cunningham, assistant professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University; Peter Dombrowski, professor of strategy at the U.S. Naval War College; Erik Gartzke, professor of political science at the University of California at San Diego; Jon Lindsay, assistant professor at the University of Toronto; Paul van Hooft, senior strategic analyst at the Hague Center for Strategic Studies; and Sara McLaughlin Mitchell, professor of political science at the University of Iowa. https://csbaonline.org/about/events
1 p.m. — Center for a New American Security webinar: “Crafting a U.S. National Technology Strategy,” with James Geurts, performing the duties of undersecretary of the Navy; former Principal Deputy Director of National Intelligence Sue Gordon, senior adviser at Pallas Advisers; Loren DeJonge Schulman, vice president for research and evaluation at the Partnership for Public Service; Megan Lamberth, research associate in the CNAP Technology and National Security Program; Martin Rasser, senior fellow in the CNAP Technology and National Security Program; and Richard Fontaine, CEO of CNAP. https://www.cnas.org/events/special-event
2 p.m. — Adm. Craig Faller, commander, U.S. Southern Command; and Air Force Gen. Glen VanHerck, commander, U.S. Northern Command brief reporters at the Pentagon. https://www.defense.gov/Watch/Live-Events
3 p.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Military Personnel hearing: “Military Criminal Investigative Organization Reform Recommendations from the Fort Hood Independent Review Committee,” with Christopher Swecker, chairman, Fort Hood Independent Review Committee; Carrie Ricci, member, Fort Hood Independent Review Committee; Andrew Bland, former FBI special agent in charge, consultant for the Fort Hood Independent Review Committee; and Mary Counts, Former FBI supervisory special agent, consultant for the Fort Hood Independent Review Committee. A second panel will include Maj. Gen. Donna Martin, provost marshal general and commanding general, U.S. Army Criminal Investigation Command; Brig Gen. Terry Bullard, commander, Air Force Office of Special Investigations; and Omar Lopez, director, Naval Criminal Investigative Service. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
3:30 p.m. — Foreign Policy Research Institute webinar: “The Future of Space Force,” with Vice Chief of Space Operations Gen. David Thompson. https://www.fpri.org/event/2021/space-force/
WEDNESDAY | MARCH 17
10:30 a.m. — Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress virtual book discussion on Chaos Under Heaven: Trump, Xi, and the Battle for the 21st Century, with author Josh Rogin, columnist for the Global Opinions section of the Washington Post. https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar
2 p.m. — U.S. Institute of Peace webinar: “Lessons from the Four Party Peace Talks on the Korean Peninsula,” with former State Department Northeast Asia Division Chief Robert Carlin, nonresident fellow at the Stimson Center; former Senior Policy Adviser for the Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia Philip Yun, president and CEO of the World Affairs Council of Northern California; former Assistant Secretary of Defense for Asian and Pacific Affairs Chip Gregson, senior adviser at Avascent International; and Frank Aum, senior expert on North Korea at USIP. https://www.usip.org/index.php/events
THURSDAY | MARCH 18
12 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual book discussion on Chaos Under Heaven: Trump, Xi, and the Battle for the 21st Century, with author Josh Rogin, columnist at the Washington Post; and Kenneth Weinstein, fellow at Hudson. https://www.hudson.org/events
1 p.m. — Center for a New American Security virtual event: “Maintaining the Momentum: U.S.-India Relations Under the Biden Administration,” with Kenneth Juster, former U.S. ambassador to India, Richard Verma, former U.S. ambassador to India; Richard Fontaine, CNAS CEO; and Lisa Curtis, Director of the CNAS Indo-Pacific Security Program. https://www.cnas.org/events/special
1:30 p.m. — Nextgov, Defense One and Route Fifty webinar: “The Roadmap to Modernization,” with Stephen Russell, chief of the U.S. Combat Capabilities Development Command’s Information Sciences Division. https://roadmapseries.nextgov.com/agenda/
1:30 p.m. — The Hill webinar: The Future of Modern Expeditionary Warfare,” with Rep. Joe Courtney, D-Conn.; Marine Corps Commandant Gen. David Berger; retired Rear Adm. Sinclair Harris, former commander of the U.S. Naval Forces Southern Command; David Forster, chairman of the Amphibious Warship Industrial Base Coalition; and Steve Clemons, editor-at-large at The Hill. https://thehill.com/event
2:45 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies webinar: “Congressional Perspectives on the Future of the Navy,” with Rep. Mike Gallagher, R-Wis.; Rep. Elaine Luria, D-Va.; and retired Vice Adm. Peter Daly, CEO of the U.S. Naval Institute. https://www.csis.org/events/maritime-security-dialogue
4 p.m. — Hudson Institute webinar: “China and the Weaponization of Information,” with retired Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery, senior director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ Center on Cyber and Technology Innovation; Lesley Seebeck, professor at Australian National University; Nina Kollars, associate professor at the U.S. Naval War College; Peter Jennings, executive director of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute; and Patrick Cronin, senior fellow at Hudson. https://www.hudson.org/events
6:30 p.m. — Atlantic Council virtual book discussion on 2034: A Novel of the Next World War, with co-authors retired Adm. James Stavridis and Elliot Ackerman; and former Undersecretary of Defense Michele Flournoy, co-founder and managing director of WestExec Advisers. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event
FRIDAY | MARCH 19
9 a.m. — Atlantic Council, the Norwegian Ministry of Defense, and the Royal Norwegian Embassy virtual conference: “Looking North: Security in the Arctic,” with Norwegian Minister of Foreign Affairs Ine Eriksen Soreide; and Norwegian Minister of Defense Frank Bakke-Jensen https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event
9 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies webinar on “the latest situation on the Korean peninsula,” with retired Adm. Harry Harris, former U.S. Pacific Commander and U.S. ambassador to South Korea. https://www.csis.org/events/korea-chair-capital-cable-22
9:30 a.m. — Brookings Institution webinar “Revitalizing America’s Alliances,” with Rep. Andy Kim, D-N.J.; Zack Cooper, research fellow at the American Enterprise Institute; Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer, director of the German Marshall Fund of the United States’ Paris office; Sara Bjerg Moller, assistant professor at Seton Hall University; Tanvi Madan, senior fellow at the Project on International Order and Strategy; and Victor Cha, senior vice president of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. https://www.brookings.edu/events/revitalizing-americas-alliances
12 p.m. — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association virtual discussion: “NIST (National Institute for Standards and Technology) Standards for CMMC (cybersecurity maturity model certification),” with Katie Arrington, special assistant to the assistant Defense secretary of acquisition for cyber; and Ron Ross, NIST computer scientist and fellow. https://www.afcea.org/event
1:30 p.m. — Brookings Institution webinar: “Remembering the First ‘Space War,'” focusing on Operation Desert Storm in 1991, with Air Force Lt. Gen. B. Chance Saltzman, U.S. Space Force Deputy Chief of Space Operations, Cyber and Nuclear. https://www.brookings.edu/events/remembering-the-first-space-war
TUESDAY | MARCH 23
7 a.m. EDT/12 p.m. CET — U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken attends NATO foreign ministers two-day meeting at NATO headquarters in Brussels, Belgium. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg’s news conference will be streamed live https://www.nato.int
WEDNESDAY | MARCH 24
11 a.m. — Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress virtual discussion: “Lessons from New START and the Road Ahead for Nuclear Arms Control.” with Rose Gottemoeller, former undersecretary of state, arms control and international security; and CSPC Board Chairman Amb. Thomas Pickering, former undersecretary of state for political affairs and former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Russia, India, Israel and Jordan. https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
12 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual event: “North Korean Threat Perception and the US-South Korea Alliance: Political-Military Dimensions,” with retired Army Gen. Vincent Brooks, former U.S. Korea commander; retired South Korean Lt. Gen. In Bum Chun; Andrei Lankov, director, NK News, professor, Kookmin University; Evans J.R. Revere, former deputy chief of mission and charge d’affaires, U.S. Embassy, Seoul. https://www.hudson.org/events
WEDNESDAY I MARCH 31
12:30 p.m. — Hampton Roads World Affairs Council Virtual Symposium virtual panel discussion: “Stronger Together: Perspectives on Strengthening the Alliance,” with the current and three former commanders of Allied Command Transformation, including French Air Force Gen. Andre Lanata; Retired French Air Force Gen. Denis Mercier, retired Marine Gen. Jim Mattis, and retired Adm. Ed Giambastiani, ACT’s first commander. https://zoom.us/webinar/register
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“We take this opportunity to warn the new U.S. administration trying hard to give off gunpowder smell in our land. If it wants to sleep in peace for the coming four years, it had better refrain from causing a stink at its first step.”
Kim Yo Jong, sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, issues a warning to the U.S. as the Biden administration attempts to restart denuclearization talks with Pyongyang.
