At a February town hall less than a week after the Parkland school shooting, Rep. Mike Coffman, R-Colo., found himself on stage facing angry constituents hurling questions at the NRA-blessed congressman about his stance on gun control.
“Can you explain to your constituents why you sided with the NRA instead of our children’s lives?” demanded one woman in the crowded high school auditorium.
“Will you support age limits on guns?” another woman called out. “Will you support red flag laws?”
Coffman’s answers were met with shouts and boos from an audience that already knew what he had to say.
The congressman finds himself in a similar position to many of his Republican colleagues in the aftermath of the Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School shooting that killed 17 people. The mass shooting reignited the nation’s gun debate in ways other shootings haven’t, setting off marches and empowering voters to demand gun control laws from politicians who need their support in November.
[Also read: The gun debate we have versus the gun debate we need]
And for the first time since 1994, the gun debate may very well play a key role in congressional races across the country, as Republicans try to maintain control of both houses. Polls show a shifting tide in support for stricter gun laws. Gallup’s historical trend shows some of the highest levels of support for more gun control in years, and a Politico/Morning Consult poll released in February shows that about 2 out of 3 Americans now say gun laws should be stricter after the Parkland shooting.
Giffords, the gun control group started by former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, D-Ariz., after surviving a shot to the head in 2011, plans to capitalize on the changing headwinds in the gun debate for the midterms.
Isabelle James, the political director for Giffords, said the organization will play an active role in keeping gun control at the center of attention in defeating Republican incumbents who have previously opposed new gun laws.
“For a long time, gun safety had kind of fallen off the radar as a major issue,” James told the Washington Examiner. “We want to re-focus attention on gun safety as something [voters] should be thinking about when deciding who to support.”
James said the group has launched several initiatives for the elections, and one of its goals involves keeping young people energized over the issue this fall.
Karlyn Bowman, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, said it is still too early to determine to what extent the gun debate will play a role in the elections this fall, but that there are signs of change where it may have an impact on voters’ choices.
“We always ask ourselves after one of these mass shootings whether things will be different,” Bowman said. “At this point, we really don’t know, but there are certainly indications that things may be different.”
Bowman acknowledged that people are placing a higher priority on gun control this year, but said much can change between now and November.
Matt Gorman, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, also said it was too early to tell where the gun debate was going to have an impact on House races this fall.
“I think it depends on the district,” Gorman said when asked whether the NRCC is concerned about Americans’ shifting attitudes on gun control. Gorman said the committee is encouraging candidates to speak on local issues regardless of the state they’re in.
“If that’s gun control, we tell them to run on it,” Gorman said. For some candidates, however, gun control might be an issue to shy away from when it comes to this year’s midterms.
Here are eight races where gun control is likely to play a key role in the election this fall. These races were selected based on three main criteria:
- They fall under the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball list of districts deemed to be toss-up races or races that merely leaned to one party or the other.
- If they are congressional races, they involve GOP incumbents or open seats in suburban districts, as defined by the U.S. Census Bureau. Suburban races have become particularly heated after Parkland.
- They are within 100 miles of a mass shooting that has occurred within the past 10 years.
Colorado’s 6th District
Home to Aurora, the Denver suburb that was the site of one of the deadliest mass shootings in recent memory, Colorado’s 6th has been considered a swing district since it was redrawn in 2012.
The incumbent, Coffman, has represented the district since 2009 with an “A” rating from the NRA. Coffman has also benefited from a total of more than $100,000 in contributions from the NRA supporting his campaign since he first ran for the seat in 2008.
The gun debate has already been an issue in the race this year, with Democratic challenger Jason Crow, an Army veteran and attorney, calling on Coffman to return NRA campaign contributions following the shooting in Parkland.
While Coffman has held the district for nearly a decade, Democrats have set their sights on flipping it this fall considering that it went for Barack Obama in 2012 and for Hillary Clinton in 2016.
The latest poll from the left-leaning pollster Public Policy Polling released in February shows Crow, the likely Democratic candidate, leading Coffman by 5 points.
Florida’s 26th District
Located on the southern tip of Florida, the district went for Clinton by more than 16 percent in 2016.
The district’s incumbent, Rep. Carlos Curbelo, R-Fla., has held the seat since 2015 and has won support from the NRA in the past. But his stance on guns has shifted in the wake of recent mass shootings. The Miami Republican has introduced gun legislation after shootings in Orlando and Las Vegas and has supported gun control measures such as universal background checks and assault weapons bans.
In the aftermath of the Parkland shooting, which took place not far from the district, Curbelo once again joined Democrats in outlining a list of gun safety priorities calling on stricter gun laws. Curbelo also signed onto legislation introduced by Democratic Florida Rep. Stephanie Murphy that would allow the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to study gun violence as a mental health issue.
Though Curbelo has been a Republican actively working to promote stricter gun laws with Democrats, Curbelo’s opponents in the district have still taken aim at the incumbent on the issue, arguing Curbelo’s votes have not matched the rhetoric. They cite two votes against restrictions on gun purchases by people determined unfit to own one by the federal government.
As the race stands, three Democrats have filed to replace Curbelo. The Democratic establishment backs Debbie Mucarsel Powell, a previous candidate for the state senate. According to the latest poll in the race conducted by Public Policy Polling last fall, Curbelo trails a hypothetical “Democratic opponent” by 14 points.
Florida’s 27th District
Located just south of Parkland, the 27th is one of four open districts that are held by a Republican that leans Democratic this year.
The district, vacated by retiring Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, R-Fla., after serving nearly 30 years in the House, is seen as one of the country’s most likely districts to flip this fall and is listed among the Washington Post’s top 10 races to watch this year.
Eight candidates are running in the Democratic primary to replace Ros-Lehtinen. Among them, former Secretary of Health and Human Services Donna Shalala, who is likely to be the Democratic nominee.
On the Republican side, party leaders have had trouble recruiting candidates, and some view the district as unwinnable. In 2016, Clinton won the district by nearly 20 points, and Ros-Lehtinen, a Republican moderate, faced one of her closest races in years.
Raquel Regaldo, a former Miami-Dade school board member and candidate for Miami-Dade mayor who dropped out of the GOP primary race to replace Ros-Lehtinen last fall told the Miami Herald that the candidates “currently running cannot win District 27,” because “they would never attract the independents needed to win the general.”
Arizona’s 2nd District
Located in the southeast corner of Arizona, the district extends as far west to include Tuscon, the site of the 2011 shooting that killed six people and injured over a dozen others, including Giffords.
Seven years later, the shooting is still fresh in the minds of Arizona voters.
Rep. Martha McSally, R-Ariz., who represents the district, has entered the race for the open U.S. Senate seat vacated by retiring Sen. Jeff Flake, R-Ariz., leaving the congressional seat that was already targeted by Democrats more competitive in a now-open race that leans Democratic.
Both parties are fielding crowded primaries for the open seat; six are running in the Democratic primary, and four are running on the Republican side.
Gun control has already become an issue in the primaries as Democrats fielded questions on how to deal with gun violence in a February debate. And it was an issue when McSally first ran for the seat in 2014 with Giffords’ gun control group spending more than $2 million supporting McSally’s opponent in the race. After McSally’s victory, the NRA used her victory to argue that voters rejected calls for stricter gun control.
Nevada’s 3rd and 4th Districts
Nevada’s 3rd and 4th districts are both open-seat toss-up districts surrounding the Las Vegas metropolitan area, the city home to the deadliest mass shooting in U.S. history that took place last fall, leaving more than 50 dead and hundreds more injured.
Nevada’s 4th has flipped each election year since its creation in 2013, first won by Democrats in 2012, then by Republicans in 2014, and again by Democrats in 2016. This year, the seat is open as incumbent Democratic Rep. Ruben Kihuen announced his decision not to seek re-election following sexual misconduct allegations against him.
Third district incumbent Rep. Jacky Rosen, D-Nev., is running for the Senate, leaving the district open as well. The 3rd district has drawn national attention, including an endorsement from former Vice President Joe Biden for education advocate Susie Lee and President Trump’s endorsement for businessman Danny Tarkanian.
Both districts face crowded primaries, and given recent shootings in the state followed by the Parkland shooting this spring, gun control is likely to play a key role this fall.
Nevada Senate
Democrats are focusing on incumbent Sen. Dean Heller, R-Nev., who is considered by many as the most vulnerable Republican senator up for re-election this year. Democratic opponents plan to make gun control an issue in the race citing Heller’s opposition to new gun laws and an “A” rating from the NRA.
Heller, who was appointed to the seat in 2011, won re-election in 2012 by a slim margin and scored a victory this spring when his main primary challenger, Tarkanian, backed out of the race, announcing that he would run for the state’s 3rd district seat instead at Trump’s urging.
Meanwhile, Rosen is the likely Democratic candidate to challenge Heller this fall and has raised more money than Heller in the last two fundraising quarters.
Rosen, a proponent of stricter gun laws, has already received the endorsement of Giffords’ gun group, which plans to be active in the race. “Jacky has become one of Congress’ fiercest advocates for gun safety measures. … We know she will continue to stand up for gun violence prevention in the Senate, and we will be doing everything we can to get her there,” Giffords said in an endorsement statement.
Arizona Senate
The Arizona Senate race has been one to watch even before junior Sen. Jeff Flake announced his retirement last fall.
Flake, who is no fan of Trump, announced his decision not to seek re-election amid public clashes with the president and low approval ratings in the state. Flake was also facing a primary challenge in former state senator Kelli Ward who lost in a primary campaign against Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., in 2016.
Ward, who hoped to emerge as the clear front-runner in the race after Flake’s announcement not to run again, now faces a challenge against notorious former Arizona sheriff Joe Arpaio, who the president has often spoke favorably of and granted a pardon to last fall.
Ward and Arpaio will also face off against the establishment favorite in the race, McSally. McSally, elected to represent Arizona’s 2nd District in 2014, has tried to distance herself from the establishment label by denouncing political correctness and campaigning as a hard-liner on immigration. The establishment, however, still loves her.
The expected Democratic nominee, Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, D-Ariz., is the first openly bisexual person elected to Congress and would be the second openly LGBT person to serve in the Senate after Sen. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wis.
Sinema, a three-term congresswoman, has more than $5.1 million in her Senate war chest, more than any Republican in the race, according to Federal Election Commissions reports.
