RACE FOR ARCTIC DOMINANCE HEATING UP: The Arctic may be the world’s smallest ocean, but with it warming at twice the rate of the rest of the globe, it has become the largest new area for competition among the United States, Russia, Canada, Denmark, and Norway.
And with roughly half of all the coastline in the Arctic, some 15,000 miles, belonging to Russia, Moscow is increasingly asserting its claim to be the dominant power of the “high north.” The U.S., by comparison, has a mere 1,060 miles of Alaska coastline in the Arctic.
Last month, Russian President Vladimir Putin praised his military’s latest Arctic drills which involved three nuclear submarines simultaneously breaking through the polar ice cap and warplanes flying over the North Pole.
And more recent reports suggest that Russia is deploying more military forces to the region and testing a so-called “super-weapon,” the Poseidon 2M39 torpedo, an underwater drone that is designed to be nuclear-powered and armed with a nuclear warhead.
IT’S GOT THE PENTAGON’S ATTENTION: “Obviously we’re monitoring it very closely,” said spokesman John Kirby at yesterday’s Pentagon briefing, without confirming any specific deployments of Russian assets or tests of new weapons. “I won’t talk to specifics in terms of how we assess what’s going on there.”
“We obviously recognize that the region is key terrain that’s vital to our own homeland defense and is a potential strategic corridor between the Indo-Pacific, Europe, and the homeland,” Kirby said. “We’re committed to protecting our U.S. national security interests in the Arctic by upholding a rules-based order in the region, particularly through our network of Arctic allies and partners.”
RUSSIA THREATENS US INTERESTS IN ARCTIC WITH MILITARY BUILDUP
NOT A NEW DEVELOPMENT: Russia’s expansive claims to the Arctic, which is believed to hold up to one-quarter of the Earth’s undiscovered oil and gas, is nothing new.
A report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies last year, “America’s Arctic moment,” laid out in detail Russia’s increasing militarization of its islands in the Arctic Ocean in much the same way China has been militarizing islands in the South China Sea.
“Russia has really prioritized the Arctic as a region that is going to be so important for its future, both economically and militarily,” said Heather Conley, an Arctic expert at CSIS. Moscow is well aware, she said, that, in the next 30 years, “the country that controls the Arctic controls the world.”
The CSIS report said Russia’s growing offensive capabilities in the Arctic consist of hypersonic cruise missiles and precision-strike munitions that are designed to be undetectable by U.S. missile defense systems.
“Such capabilities strengthen Russia’s power projection capabilities in the Barents Sea and increase its ability to deny aerial, maritime, or land access to NATO or U.S. forces,” the report said.
And with the steady reduction in polar sea ice, Russia is seeking to act as a gatekeeper of the new sea lanes, which hold the potential to reduce travel time between Asia and the West by as much as 20 days, demanding that ships that transit the route use Russian icebreakers and put Russian pilots on board.
THE ARCTIC EMERGES AS A GEOGRAPHIC BATTLEGROUND
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HAPPENING TODAY: In Vienna, the U.S. negotiators led by Special Envoy for Iran Robert Malley will begin talks aimed at bringing both the United States and Iran back into compliance with the 2015 nuclear agreement that former President Donald Trump trashed as “the worst deal ever.”
The diplomatic dance to avoid a direct confrontation with the Iranian side involves the United States talking to its European, Russian, and Chinese partners who remain party to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA, and for them, in turn, to discuss with Iran “a mutual return to compliance.”
“We don’t underestimate the scale of the challenges ahead. These are early days. We don’t anticipate an early or immediate breakthrough,” said State Department spokesman Ned Price. “These discussions, we fully expect, will be difficult,” he said, but “the primary issues to be discussed are actually quite simple.”
“They’re, on the one hand, the nuclear steps that Iran would need to take in order for Iran to return to that desired end state … and the sanctions relief steps that the United States would need to take in order for us to return to compliance.”
AFGHANISTAN COUNTDOWN, DAY 25: As of today, there are 25 days left before more than 2,500 U.S. and 5,000 international troops are scheduled to withdraw fully from Afghanistan under the Feb. 29, 2020, agreement negotiated with the Taliban by the Trump administration.
“We still want to see a negotiated settlement to the end of this war. And it’s clear to us here at the Department of Defense that our colleagues at the State Department and our negotiators are taking this seriously. And they continue to try to press for a diplomatic solution,” said Pentagon press secretary John Kirby. “I think clearly, as the president himself has indicated, it’s going to be tough to meet May 1st as a deadline for the complete withdrawal, logistically just tough to make. That said, the review is ongoing. The president hasn’t made a decision one way or the other.”
INDUSTRY WATCH, AIR FORCE STEALTH DRONE TEST: Armed drones that can fire missiles are nothing new, but the XQ-58A Valkyrie, which passed a new milestone last month, is a new breed of unmanned combat aircraft.
Sleek and stealthy, the XQ-58A, built by Kratos UAS, can fly higher, farther, and faster than the first generation of low, slow-flying armed drones.
The Air Force Research Laboratory announced yesterday that it successfully completed the sixth flight test of the high-performance unmanned air vehicle on March 26 at Yuma Proving Ground, Arizona.
“This is the sixth flight of the Valkyrie, and the first time the payload bay doors have been opened in flight,” said Alyson Turri, demonstration program manager. “In addition to this first SUAS separation demonstration, the XQ-58A flew higher and faster than previous flights.”
DID YOU KNOW … That the United States is the world’s single largest financial supporter of conventional weapons destruction? That comes from the 20th edition of “To Walk the Earth in Safety,” an annual report from the State Department’s Office of Weapons Removal and Abatement.
“In 2020, the United States funded conventional weapons destruction efforts in 49 countries with more than $259 million,” the report says, “investing more than $4 billion in over 100 countries since 1993 to promote international peace and security by addressing humanitarian hazards from landmines and unexploded ordnance in post-conflict countries, as well as by partnering with nations to reduce the availability of excess, loosely-secured, or otherwise at-risk small arms and light weapons and munitions.”
ON THE MOVE: Center for Strategic and International Studies says Jake Harrington has rejoined the International Security Program as an intelligence fellow after more than a decade with the Federal Bureau of Investigation.
Harrington was most recently detailed to the Office of the Director of National Intelligence Office of Legislative Affairs, where he managed the legislative engagement portfolio for the National Counterterrorism Center and other ODNI components. At CSIS, his research will focus on intelligence, technology, and irregular warfare.
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The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Russia threatens US interests in Arctic with military buildup
Washington Examiner: Army tries to muscle into Pacific as budget battle looms
Air Force Magazine: Army’s Long-Range Strike Vision is ‘Stupid,’ AFGSC Chief Says
Washington Examiner: Guantanamo Bay detainees consolidated as Biden urges closure of 9/11-era facility
Washington Examiner: On the front lines of the border crisis
Washington Examiner: Antony Blinken: The public can’t ‘start traveling again’ before worldwide vaccination
Washington Examiner: Police say suspect in Capitol attack ‘intentionally struck’ officers
AP: US, Iran expected to begin indirect nuclear talks in Vienna
AP: Iran prosecutor says 10 indicted for Ukraine plane shootdown
Defense One: Putin Ups Efforts to Intimidate Ukraine and Its Allies
Washington Post: Jordan’s Prince Hamzeh, under house arrest after alleged coup attempt, appears to affirm loyalty to the king
Breaking Defense: Faster, Tougher, Smarter: Army’s Future Armored Force
USNI News: House Lawmakers Want Pentagon to Rethink Global Force Deployments
AP: Eating our lunch: Biden points to China in development push
Fox News: Sen. Tuberville calls out ‘disappointing partisan slant’ in military training materials
Air Force Magazine: A High-Tech Fix for the Air Force’s Training Crisis?
Defense One: US Army Wants Face Recognition at Base Gates
Air Force Magazine: Vandenberg Is USAF’s Choice to Host GBSD Training Unit
AP: North Korea says it won’t participate in Tokyo Olympics
19fortyfive.com: What If China Launched A Surprise Attack On The U.S. Military?
19fortyfive.com: Opinion: Why Joe Biden Must Avoid A U.S.-China War Over Taiwan
Real Clear Defense: Opinion: The Army Needs To Rethink Its Opposition to Upgrading the Chinook Helicopter
Calendar
TUESDAY | APRIL 6
9:30 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual book on “Stronger: Adapting America’s China Strategy in an Age of Competitive Interdependence,” with author Ryan Hass, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution; and Jude Blanchette, chair in China studies at CSIS. https://www.csis.org/events/towards-better-china-strategy
11:30 a.m. — Air Force Space and Missile Systems Center Space Innovation Summit, with Air Force Lt. Gen. John “J.T.” Thompson, commander of the Space and Missile Systems Center; and Lauren Knausenberger, Air Force chief information officer. https://www.americas-fs.org/2021-space-innovation-round
12:30 p.m. — National Defense Industrial Association virtual Integrated Precision Warfare Review, Impact of New Administration on Precision Warfare,” with James Geurts, performing the duties of Undersecretary of the Navy, delivers keynote remarks on “Navy Perspective on the New Administration’s Goals.’ https://www.ndia.org/events
1 p.m. — Atlantic Council webinar: “After the Insurrection: Countering Domestic Extremism in the U.S. Military and Law Enforcement,” with William Evanina, director of the National Counterintelligence and Security Center in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence; Paul Goldenberg, chairman and president of Cardinal Point Strategies; retired Army Lt. Gen. Russel Honore; and former Acting Assistant Attorney General for National Security Mary McCord, legal director of Georgetown Law School’s Institute for Constitutional Advocacy and Protection. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/domestic-extremism
3 p.m. — American Security Project virtual discussion: “Beneath the Waves: A Deeper Look at the National Security Threats of Illicit Fishing in ‘Seaspiracy,’” with Rep. Peter Welch, D-Vt.; retired Navy Adm. William Fallon, former commander of the U.S. Central Command; Ali Tabrizi, co-director of “Seaspiracy”; Lucy Tabrizi, co-director of “Seaspiracy”; Alex Cornelissen, Sea Shepherd CEO; Peter Hammarstedt, campaigns director at Sea Shepherd; and Andrew Holland, American Security Project COO. https://www.americansecurityproject.org/event
4:30 p.m. — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies virtual discussion on a new report, “Dragon Against the Sun: Chinese Views of Japanese Seapower,” with author Toshi Yoshihara, senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. https://sais.jhu.edu/campus-events
WEDNESDAY | APRIL 7
9 a.m. — National Defense Industrial Association virtual 2021 Insensitive Munitions and Energetic Materials Technology Symposium, with Lawrence Fan, acting manager of the Joint Enhanced Munitions Technology Program. nhttps://www.ndia.org/events
10 a.m. — Center for a New American Security virtual fireside chat on ”The Future of U.S. Naval Strategy,” with Adm. Mike Gilday, chief of naval operations; and Richard Fontaine, CNAS chief executive officer. https://www.cnas.org/events/special-event
11 a.m. — Atlantic Council webinar: “Preventing Nuclear Proliferation and Reassuring America’s Allies,” with former Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel; former Assistant Secretary of State for International Security and Non-Proliferation Christopher Ford; former Deputy Assistant Defense Secretary for Nuclear and Missile Defense Policy Elaine Bunn; and Missy Ryan, national security reporter at the Washington Post. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event
11 a.m. — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association virtual 2021 5G Defense Tech summit, with Wendy Noble, executive director of the National Security Agency; Joint Chiefs Vice Chairman Gen. John Hyten. https://dcevents.afceachapters.org/5gdefensetechsummit/agenda
11:30 a.m. — Technology Training Corporation virtual Next Generation Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance symposium, with Assistant Coast Guard Commandant for Capabilities Rear Adm. John Mauger. https://ttcus.com/nextgenisr
12:30 p.m. — Economic Club of Washington, D.C. webinar with Raytheon CEO Gregory Hayes on the commercial aerospace business and defense innovations. https://www.economicclub.org/events
12:30 p.m. — National Defense Industrial Association virtual Integrated Precision Warfare Review: :Impact of New Administration on Precision Warfare,” with Brig. Gen. John Rafferty, director of Army Futures Command’s Long Range Precision First Cross Functional Team. https://www.ndia.org/events
2 p.m. — Heritage Foundation and the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute webinar: “The Need to Maintain U.S. Nuclear Deterrence: The Growing Threat from China and Russia,” with former Sen. Jon Kyl, R-Ariz., senior counsel at Covington & Burling LLP; Roger Zakheim, Washington director of the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute; Rebeccah Heinrichs, senior fellow at the Hudson Institute; Matthew Kroenig, deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s Center for Strategy and Security; Keith Payne, CEO and president of the National Institute for Public Policy; Patty-Jane Geller, policy analyst for nuclear deterrence and missile defense at Heritage; and James Jay Carafano, vice president of Heritage’s Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute. https://www.heritage.org/missile-defense/event
3 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies webinar: “Cooperation or Competition: Planning for the Next National Security Strategy,” with former Deputy Secretary State James Steinberg; former Deputy National Security Adviser Nadia Schadlow; Seth Jones, director of the CSIS International Security Program; and Daniel Runde, director of the CSIS Project on Prosperity and Development. https://www.csis.org/events
5 p.m. — Institute of World Politics webinar: ‘How to Best Leverage U.S. Alliances and Partnerships Against the People’s Republic of China,” with former Acting Defense Undersecretary for Policy James Anderson. https://www.iwp.edu/events/webinar
7 p.m. — Physicians for Social Responsibility webinar: “China, the U.S. and the Risk of Nuclear War,” with Rachel Esplin Odell, research fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft; Tong Zhao, senior fellow in the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Nuclear Policy Program; Zia Mian, co-director of Princeton University’s Program on Science and Global Security; and Michael Klare, professor at Hampshire College. https://www.psr.org/blog/event
THURSDAY | APRIL 8
11 a.m. — National Defense Industrial Association and the Aerospace Industries Association virtual 2021 Joint Industrial Security Spring webinar, with William Lietzau, director of the Defense Counterintelligence and Security Agency. https://www.ndia.org/events
1 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies and the Secure World Foundation webinar: “The Dark Arts in Space: Developments in Counterspace Weapons,” with Victoria Samson, Washington office director at the Secure World Foundation; Brian Weeden, director of program planning at the Secure World Foundation; Kaitlyn Johnson, deputy director of the CSIS Aerospace Security Project; Makena Young, research associate in the CSIS Aerospace Security Project; and Joe Moye, military fellow in the CSIS International Security Program. https://www.csis.org/events/dark-arts
1 p.m. — Defense One webinar: “Defense Innovations,” as part of the Tech Talks series. https://www.defenseone.com/feature/Tech-Talks
2 p.m. — Association of the U.S. Army Thought Leaders webinar with James Helis, director of the Army Resilience Directorate to discuss the Army’s efforts to prevent sexual assault and harassment in the ranks. https://www.bigmarker.com/ausaorg
2 p.m. — Intelligence National Security Alliance virtual forum: “OSINT (open-source intelligence): Thinking Outside the SCIF,” with Mary-Kate Leahy, assistant deputy Army chief of staff for intelligence; Leo Garciga, director of Army intelligence community information management in the Office of the Army Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence; Assistant Director of National Intelligence for Information and Data Nancy Morgan; former Principal Deputy Director of National Intelligence Sue Gordon; Adam Lurie, president of Exiger Federal Solutions; and Don Widener, director of the Advanced Analytics Lab and CTO of BAE Systems. https://www.insaonline.org/event/osint-thinking-outside-the-scif
5 p.m. — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies and Duke University’s Program in American Grand Strategy virtual conference: “Politics, Protests, and the Post-Pandemic World: Civil-Military Relations Moving Forward,” with Kathryn Wheelbarger, former acting assistant defense secretary for international security affairs. https://sais.jhu.edu/campus-events
FRIDAY | APRIL 9
9 a.m. Pentagon Briefing Room — Press briefing with Lt. Gen. Michael Groen, director, Joint Artificial Intelligence Center; and Robert Work, commissioner, National Security Commission on AI. https://www.defense.gov/Watch/Live-Events/
9 a.m. — Technology Training Corporation virtual Next Generation Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance symposium, with John Fiore, technical director of the Naval Surface Warfare Center Dahlgren Division https://ttcus.com/nextgenisr/
MONDAY | APRIL 12
12 p.m. — Association of the U.S. Army Noon Report webinar with Lt. Gen. R. Scott Dingle, the Army surgeon general, and Command Sgt. Maj. Diamond Hough, senior enlisted leader for U.S. Army Medical Command. https://www.bigmarker.com/ausaorg/AUSA-Noon-Report
THURSDAY | APRIL 22
10 a.m. — American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research event “Priorities for the fiscal year 2022 defense budget,” with Rep. Adam Smith, chairman, House Armed Services Committee; and Mackenzie Eaglen, Resident Fellow, AEI. https://www.aei.org/events/a-conversation
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“The country that controls the Arctic controls the world.”
Heather Conley, Arctic expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
