PEACE PLAN OR PULLOUT PLAN?: The shocking ISIS attack on a wedding party in Kabul, in which a suicide bomber blew himself up in the midddle of a dancing crowd of celebrants Saturday night, has raised new fears in Afghanistan that a pending deal between the United States and the Taliban could lead the withdrawal of American and other international troops without a real peace agreement.
The attack killed 63 people, including children, and wounded almost 200 others, prompting Afghan President Ashraf Ghani yesterday to vow the elimination of all safe havens for ISIS.
TRUMP: ‘I’M NOT TRUSTING ANYBODY’: President Trump and his national security team were briefed Friday at Trump’s Bedminster, New Jersey, country club by U.S. special representative for Afghanistan reconciliation Zalmay Khalilzad on the progress in the negotiations with the Taliban, which appear to be in their final stages.
Under the deal, in return for a withdrawal of U.S. troops the Taliban would agree to a ceasefire, begin talks with the Afghan government, and, perhaps most important from the American perspective, take steps to ensure that no terrorist attack on the United States can again be launched from Afghanistan.
Trump put the number of U.S. troops in Afghanistan at about 13,000, less than the Pentagon’s latest rough estimate of 14,000, and said he’s ready to cut forces further.
“We’ll be bringing it down a little bit more, and then we’ll decide whether we’ll be staying longer or not,” Trump told reporters before returning to Washington Sunday. “We’re looking at Afghanistan. We’re talking to Afghanistan, both the government and also talking to the Taliban, having very good discussions. We’ll see what happens.”
But Trump indicated he’s not yet ready to finalize a deal that relies on the Taliban to protect U.S. interests. “I’m not trusting anybody,” Trump said. “It’s a horrible situation that’s going on in Afghanistan, it has been for many years.”
“Look we’re there for one reason,” he added. “It can’t be a laboratory for terror.”
GHANI’S WORRY: Despite Trump’s claim of “good discussions,” Afghanistan’s U.S.-backed government has largely been sidelined by the talks, and a spokesman for Ghani tweeted over the weekend that the Afghan president had not yet been briefed on what President Trump was told Friday.
Ghani and many Afghans worry that with the Taliban resurgent, a U.S. withdrawal now, on the flimsy promise of future negotiations, could lead to an eventual Taliban takeover.
“We also continue to emphasize that a peace deal will only be meaningful if the two key components of ceasefire and Taliban’s readiness to turn to political life could be achieved,” tweeted Sediq Sediqqi. “[The] Afghan government is committed to work towards achieving these goals.”
GRAHAM’S STICKING POINT: South Carolina Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham — one of Trump’s staunchest defenders and sometime critic — keep warning Trump not to get out of Afghanistan completely.
“Every national security adviser for President Trump is recommending unanimously that if we do a peace agreement with the Taliban, we must maintain the ability to have a counterterrorism force with intel capability, as long as conditions on the ground warrant,” Graham said Sunday on Fox News Channel. “The idea of leaving at a date certain is a disaster for the United States, because ISIS and al Qaeda will regenerate.”
When asked about Graham’s concern yesterday, Trump replied, “Well, I guess that means Lindsey is a tough man, OK?”
DON’T TRUST, DETER: “The Taliban are untrustworthy, and any agreement is non-enforceable after a U.S. exit anyway,” writes Gil Barndollar, senior fellow with Defense Priorities, who argues Trump should follow his gut and order a complete withdrawal. “What safeguards U.S. interests is deterrence by punishment: the ability to strike the Taliban should they facilitate harm to the United States, regardless of the state of the Afghan government and security forces post-withdrawal.”
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HAPPENING TODAY: U.S. special representative for North Korea Stephen Biegun is in Japan today and will be in South Korea tomorrow to “further strengthen coordination on the final, fully verified denuclearization of the DPRK,” in the words of a State Department announcement.
‘NOT HOT AIR’: Over the weekend, North Korea launched another rhetorical broadside, railing against the joint U.S.-South Korean military exercises, which it claims are a thinly veiled rehearsal for an invasion of the North and a violation of a promise President Trump made to Kim Jong Un at their first summit last year.
“A stop to the joint military exercises is an issue which the man with the full command of the armed forces of the U.S. committed to do in person at the Singapore DPRK-U.S. summit,” said a statement on the state-run Korean Central News Agency. The official commentary warns of “disastrous consequences” if the war games don’t stop. “The U.S. should keep in mind that our repeated warnings are not hot air.”
WHAT’S THE STRATEGY?: As North Korea continues to test new short range missiles and rocket launchers, President Trump dismisses the provocations as no big deal. Trump insists his relationship with Kim remains good and that North Korea still wants to make a deal.
That has Florida Republican Rep. Ted Yoho, a supporter of Trump, wondering what the president knows that he doesn’t. “As far as the president, I don’t know what his strategy is,” Yoho said on CNN Saturday.
“He’s got inside information I don’t have,” Yoho said, “so I’m going to defer to the president on that.” But he said Kim is playing a dangerous game. “I feel that Kim Jong Un is just working to get attention, but he needs to tread very softly and very cautiously. And these are not things that I would recommend that he does because they are very provocative.”
CHINA’S GOING TO HATE THIS: The Trump administration has decided to approve an $8 billion sale of 66 F-16 fighter jets to Taiwan, advancing a substantial upgrade of the island’s military defenses amid an array of tensions with China, writes Joel Gehrke in the Washington Examiner.
“These fighters are critical to improving Taiwan’s ability to defend its sovereign airspace, which is under increasing pressure from the People’s Republic of China,” Senate Foreign Relations Chairman James Risch, an Idaho Republican, said Friday.
The administration gave lawmakers a preview of the decision on Thursday, starting the clock on an informal review period that typically takes 30 days. That process could be sped up, as U.S. policymakers are increasingly frustrated with China over the trade war and Beijing’s heavy-handed response to the pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong.
China’s Xinhua news agency quoted foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying saying the sale “seriously violated the one-China principle” and “interfered in China’s internal affairs and undermined China’s sovereignty and security interests.”
SPEAK UP, MR. PRESIDENT: There were bipartisan calls over the weekend for President Trump to voice more public support for demonstrators in Hong Kong, as the protests there stretched into the 11th week and authorities seemed close to a crackdown.
“This is a defining moment in his presidency regarding China,” Sen. Lindsey Graham told Fox News Channel host Maria Bartiromo yesterday. “I think we should lend our voice to the protests. They’re not asking for too much. They’re asking for China to honor the agreement they made regarding Hong Kong.”
“I think the American president needs to speak up, and he needs to put the Chinese Communist government on notice that if you violate the agreement with Hong Kong, then you’re going to have a different relationship with the United States,” Graham said.
On ABC Sunday, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, a Democratic presidential hopeful, said Trump should use the “weight of the presidency and the world community” to put pressure on China. “Sanctions you can use, you can use tools, you can use the bully pulpit. You can ask other world leaders to join you in sanctions and really pressure the denial of human rights to stop,” Gillibrand told ABC’s Martha Raddatz. “You just have to use your power, and especially your economic power, to force different behavior.”
READ FOR YOURSELF: A redacted version of the Air Force investigation into Gen. John Hyten has been made public, and it sheds more light on the allegations of sexual misconduct leveled against the nominee to be vice chairman of the joint chiefs of staff and why the results of the investigation were inconclusive.
A copy of the report has been posted by Air Force Magazine, and the Washington Post says it has obtained additional documents as well.
The report helps explain why despite credible and detailed allegations made by Army Col. Kathryn Spletstoser the Air Force Office of Special Investigations was unable to corroborate her account. According to the report, Spletstoser told investigators there were “hundreds” of incriminating emails on government servers and also provided a pair of sweatpants that she said may have DNA from Hyten’s semen.
The emails were not found, and the DNA tests revealed traces of Spletstoser’s DNA and that of someone else, but not Hyten’s.
Here’s the key paragraph:
Hyten still faces a confirmation vote by the full Senate.
JUST ANOTHER REAL ESTATE DEAL: President Trump confirmed yesterday that he is indeed interested in buying Greenland, if it’s ever for sale.
“It’s something we talked about.” Trump told reporters in New Jersey yesterday. “Denmark essentially owns it, we’re very good allies with Denmark. We protect Denmark like we protest large sections of the world, so the concept came up.”
Since the early 1950s, the United States has operated the Thule Air Base in northern Greenland.
“Strategically, it’s interesting, and we would be interested, but we’ll talk to them a little bit. It’s not number one on the burner, I’ll tell you that,” said Trump, who said Denmark may want to unload the world’s biggest island because it costs $700 million a year.
“Essentially, it’s a large real estate deal,” he said.
On Fox News Sunday, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said the prospect of a purchase is “developing. We’re looking at it.”
“Denmark is an ally. Greenland is a strategic place up there, and they’ve got a lot of valuable minerals,” Kudlow said. “I don’t want to predict it now. I’m just saying the president, who knows a thing or two about buying real estate, wants to take a look at a potential Greenland purchase.”
UH, DON’T GET YOUR HOPES UP: “Greenland is not for sale. Greenland is not Danish. Greenland belongs to Greenland. I strongly hope that this is not meant seriously,” Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen told the newspaper Sermitsiaq, as reported by Reuters
Greenland might not be for sale, but the ice-covered island is strategically crucial to American national security and will likely play an important role as the United States, Russia, and China compete in the Arctic, writes Russ Read in the Washington Examiner.
IRANIAN TANKER RELEASED: A Gibraltar court has rebuffed the American attempt to seize an Iranian oil tanker, instead clearing the vessel for release and allowing it to sail away last night.
The United States petitioned to take control of the Grace 1 and its $1 million cargo, saying it violated U.S. sanctions, but the court said it was bound by British law.
“Ultimately, this is an Iranian diplomatic win,” Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told the Washington Examiner.
The ruling could ease tensions between the United Kingdom and Iran, which have been at an impasse in the weeks since Iran seized a British-flagged tanker in retaliation for the detention of Iran’s Grace 1 in the waters of Gibraltar.
The Rundown
Washington Times: Trump warns China against Hong Kong crackdown, saying it would make trade deal unlikely
New York Times: With Troop Buildup, China Sends a Stark Warning to Hong Kong
AP: China Lashes Out at Taiwan Over Hong Kong Asylum Offer
South China Morning Post: Chinese missiles likely to cripple Asia-based US forces in event of conflict: report
Washington Post: The Quantum Revolution Is Coming, and Chinese Scientists Are at the Forefront
Wall Street Journal: Russian Nuclear Monitoring Stations Went Silent After Missile Blast
Reuters: Canada slams UK decision to ‘off-load’ Islamist fighter
Axios: Inside Trump’s naval blockade obsession
Reuters: Iran Says U.S. Move on North Syria Safe Zone Is “Provocative”
Air Force Magazine: Florida Congressman Argues F-22 Training Should Return to Tyndall
Defense News: Despite record budgets, the U.S. Navy is short hundreds of millions for maintenance
Popular Mechanics: The U.S. Navy Wants To Build the World’s Largest Robot Warship
USNI News: U.S. Coast Guard Eyes Expanded Operations in Western Pacific
AP: Heavily polluted US weapons sites are now home to wildlife
Washington Post: Opinion: How the Navy could be torpedoing Trump’s chances in 2020
Washington Examiner: Buying Greenland isn’t a good idea — it’s a great idea
Calendar
MONDAY | AUGUST 19
1 p.m. American Bar Association webinar on “The Servicemembers Civil Relief Act,” focusing on issues of litigation, debt collections, mortgage payments, taxation, and lease enforcement, with Elizabeth Singer, director of the Justice Department’s Fair Housing Program; retired Army Col. Paul Kantwill, senior fellow at the Loyola University Chicago School of Law’s Institute for Consumer Antitrust Studies; and retired Air Force Col. John Odom, partner at Jones & Odom. www.americanbar.org/events
TUESDAY | AUGUST 20
8:00 a.m. 2201 G St. N.W. Defense Writers Group breakfast, with Gen. James Holmes, commander, Air Combat Command. nationalsecuritymedia.gwu.edu
8:40 a.m. 801 Mt. Vernon Place N.W. Digital Government Institute Data, Information, and Knowledge Management conference. Christopher Rinehart, knowledge manager at the Defense Department, delivers remarks on “Authoritative Data Sources – How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love KM.” digitalgovernment.com/events
9 a.m. 900 South Orme Street, Arlington. Institute for Defense and Government Advancement 2019 Counter Unmanned Aircraft Systems Summit with the theme “Defending the Skies: Cutting Edge Counter UAS Solutions.” www.idga.org/events
WEDNESDAY | AUGUST 21
8:50 a.m. South Orme Street, Arlington. Institute for Defense and Government Advancement 2019 Counter Unmanned Aircraft Systems Summit with the theme “Defending the Skies: Cutting Edge Counter UAS Solutions.” Brian Harrell, assistant infrastructure security director at the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, delivers remarks on “Developing Infrastructure That Can Meet Rapidly Developing Drone Threats.” www.idga.org/events-counteruas-usa
9:50 a.m. South Orme Street, Arlington. Institute for Defense and Government Advancement Multi Domain Battle Management Summit, with Army Brig. Gen. Johnny Davis, commanding general of the Army Joint Modernization Command, delivering remarks on “Modernizing Military Networks in Order to Transfer Information Quickly to Each Service.” www.idga.org/events-multidomainbattlemanagement
11 a.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Avenue N.W. Hudson Institute discussion on “President Trump’s Maximum Pressure Campaign: Rally Allies and Rattle Iran,” with Fatima al-Asrar, co-founder of the Basement Foundation and former senior fellow at the Arabia Foundation; Brian Katulis, senior fellow at the Center for American Progress; Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior fellow at Foundation for Defense of Democracies; Kylie Atwood, national security reporter at CNN; and Michael Pregent, senior fellow at the Hudson Institute. www.hudson.org/events
THURSDAY | AUGUST 22
8:50 a.m. 900 South Orme Street, Arlington. Institute for Defense and Government Advancement Multi Domain Battle Management Summit, with Marine Corps Lt. Gen. Daniel O’Donohue, joint force development director for the Joint Staff, delivering remarks on “Changing the Nature of Warfare in Order to Integrate all Domains.” At 11:15 a.m., James Collins, deputy assistant commissioner for intelligence at Customs and Border Protection, and Phyllis Corley, director of the Office of Director of National Intelligence Advanced Campaign Cell, participate in a discussion on “Leveraging Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning to Enhance Human Decision Making in the Field Operations.” www.idga.org/events-multidomainbattlemanagement
FRIDAY | AUGUST 23
7:30 a.m. 1401 Lee Highway, Arlington. Air Force Association Breakfast Series event with Gen. James Holmes, commander, Air Combat Command. events.r20.constantcontact.com
8:50 a.m. 900 South Orme Street, Arlington. Institute for Defense and Government Advancement Multi Domain Battle Management Summit, with Rear Adm. George Wikoff, deputy director of operations at the Joint Staff National Joint Operations Intelligence Center’s Operations Team Five, delivering remarks on “Synchronization Between all of the Service Branches for Enhanced Organization in Combat.” www.idga.org/events-multidomainbattlemanagement
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“I don’t want to predict it now. I’m just saying the president, who knows a thing or two about buying real estate, wants to take a look at a potential Greenland purchase.”
White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow on Fox News Sunday.
