Presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden may not be moving much, but he’s proving a tougher target for President Trump than his past political opponents.
Less than five months from the election, the Trump campaign team is still trying to find the right message to defeat Biden. The president has stuck with the “Sleepy Joe” nickname, though his campaign is as likely to go with “Hidin’ Biden” to mock his low-key approach to the trail or “Beijing Biden” to paint the Democrat as soft on China. But none of these have defined the former vice president as effectively as “Crooked Hillary” Clinton, “Lyin’ Ted” Cruz, “Little Marco” Rubio, or “Low Energy Jeb” Bush, in part because Biden is better liked than most of these previous Trump foes.
A recent Fox News poll found that 53% of registered voters have a favorable impression of Biden, compared to 44% unfavorable. Other polls show higher unfavorable numbers for Biden, suggesting Trump campaign attacks are beginning to take their toll. But the RealClearPolitics national average still has his net favorability at -1.6%, while Trump’s stands at -14.3%. Biden’s numbers are also noticeably better than top congressional leaders of both parties, including Nancy Pelosi, Mitch McConnell, and Chuck Schumer.
“Trump needs to reframe this election as a choice,” said Republican strategist Alex Conant. “In 2016, Trump was fortunate to run against a very unpopular and divisive nominee, which helped offset many of his own negatives. If he wants to win in 2020, he has no choice but to drive up Biden’s negative ratings.”
The Trump campaign is starting to settle on Biden as a doddering bystander looking on as radical leftists take over the Democratic Party. The campaign debuted two new ads on Friday, one that suggested Biden’s embrace of increasingly liberal economic policies would jeopardize the post-lockdown recovery and another that questioned Biden’s mental acuity. The second spot shows images of Biden stammering and fumbling inside an old television set with rabbit ears.
“In his third presidential run at 77 years old, it is clear that Joe Biden’s mental state is diminishing, leaving him unfit to serve as Commander in Chief,” said Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale in a statement announcing the ad. “Democrat Party handlers are trying to keep Biden hidden away from the public, but the American people deserve to see the truth: Joe Biden simply does not have the fortitude to serve as President.” To drive the point home, the ad is titled “Fortitude.”
Trump tied the two messages together in his Tulsa rally speech. Saying Biden “remains silent in his basement in the face of this brutal assault on our nation,” referring to the statue-toppling and civil unrest gripping parts of the country, he implied his opponent was a figurehead. “Joe Biden has surrendered to his party and to the left-wing mob,” Trump said. “He has no control. Does anybody honestly think he controls these radial maniacs?” Trump added, “You know what he says to his wife when he’s not confusing her with his sister? ‘Get me the hell out of there. These people are crazy.’”
The president previewed this line of attack in his Conservative Political Action Conference speech in early March as he handicapped the Democratic race between Biden and Bernie Sanders. “With Joe, he’s sort of down the middle,” Trump conceded. “You know, the difference is Joe is not going to be running the government, he’s just going to be sitting in a home someplace, and people are going to be running it for him, and they will be radical-left socialists.”
“It’s a waste of time to attempt to turn Joe Biden into as disliked a politician as Hillary Clinton,” said veteran Republican strategist Curt Anderson. “Will never happen, he does not lend himself to that, and it is pointless to try. But fortunately, it is not necessary. We do not need a popularity contest, we need an argument about the direction of this country — are we going to embrace socialism or capitalism? Are we going to embrace lawlessness or law enforcement? Are we going to coddle China or get aggressive with them?”
“Finally,” Anderson added, “while Biden is not as unlikeable as Secretary Clinton, it is obviously fair to question whether he is competent to stand trial.”
One risk is that Trump will come across as mean-spirited if voters simply like Biden better. Biden is currently leading among those who dislike both major party candidates, a group Trump won in 2016. Another is Trump’s case against Biden may itself be too much of a moving target.
“Trump’s speech in Tulsa had some good lines about Biden, but they didn’t break through at all,” said Conant. “He needs to settle on a line of attack and then drive it relentlessly, like he did with Clinton. Trump is really good at branding, but so far, he hasn’t succeeded with Biden.”
