With Russian troops trapped near Kherson, Putin imposes martial law, orders forced relocation of civilians

“The Kyiv regime refused to recognize the will and choice of the people, declining any proposals for talks. On the contrary, shelling continues, and civilians continue to die,” Putin said in a meeting with his Security Council. “The neo-Nazis are using plainly terrorist methods, plotting sabotage at critical infrastructure, attempting to murder members of local authorities.”

Television images showed residents of Kherson, with belongings limited to what they can carry, lined up to board ferries taking them to an unknown destination, possibly Russia.

PUTIN ENACTS MARTIAL LAW IN ANNEXED REGIONS OF UKRAINE

ALL EYES ON THE SOUTHERN FRONT: Ukraine has been keeping quiet about its slow but steady progress in the south, where its counteroffensive has been liberating small villages along the western bank of the Dnipro River.

A report from Russian war correspondent Alexander Kots, posted on Twitter by Julia Davis’s Russian Media Monitor, painted a surprisingly honest picture of the dire straits that Russian troops find themselves in as they are effectively cut off from resupply on the wrong side of the river.

“They are being supplied by using pontoon bridges and ferry crossings,” Kots reported. “Unfortunately there is no full-fledged connection between the left and right bank. This creates difficulties for the troops, especially because on the other side of the front lines we are confronting troops that are quite substantial.”

A satellite image posted by the British Defense Ministry showed the narrow canal that Russian troops would have to travel by pontoon ferry if they retreat, a prospect that the newly appointed overall Russian commander hinted is a distinct possibility.

“Our other plans and actions regarding the city of Kherson will depend on the unfolding military and tactical situation on the ground. I repeat, it is already very difficult today,” said Sergei Surovikin in a TV interview with Russian media.

“As the overall operational commander, Surovikin’s announcement highlighting negative news about the ‘special military operation’ is highly unusual,” assessed the British military intelligence in a Twitter thread. “It likely indicates that the Russian authorities are seriously considering a major withdrawal of their forces from the area west of the Dnipro river.”

BIDEN: PUTIN INCREASINGLY DESPERATE: In brief remarks at the end of a White House event announcing the release of another 15 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, in an effort to lower gas prices before next month’s election, President Joe Biden said Putin’s latest moves reflect the increasingly desperate situation in which he finds himself.

“I think that Vladimir Putin finds himself in an incredibly difficult position,” Biden said in response to a reporter’s question about the imposition of martial law. “And what it reflects, to me, is it seems his only tool available to him is to brutalize individual citizens in Ukraine, Ukrainian citizens, to try to intimidate them into capitulating. They’re not going to do that.”

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HAPPENING TODAY: Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg met with Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson at NATO Headquarters as Hungary and in particular Turkey continue to hold up final approval for Sweden and Finland to join the 30-nation Western alliance.

“The good news is that what we have seen so far is the fastest accession process in NATO’s modern history. Twenty-eight allies have already ratified the agreement,” Stoltenberg said, noting that both Finland and Sweden are trying to meet Turkey’s demands, outlined in the Trilateral Memorandum signed in Madrid on June 28.

“We all agree on the importance of the memorandum and the need to address Turkey’s legitimate security concerns,” said Stoltenberg. “I welcome the major, concrete steps Sweden is taking to implement the Trilateral Memorandum, ending any restrictions on arms sales to Turkey, significantly enhancing cooperation on counterterrorism, [and] prohibiting participation in terrorist organizations, including the PKK.”

Stoltenberg also said that should Finland or Sweden come under “pressure” before their membership in NATO is finalized, “it is inconceivable that NATO allies will not act.”

MCCARTHY: ‘AMAZING TO ME THAT MADE NEWS’: House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) is scratching his head over why his remarks about not writing a “blank check” for Ukraine military assistance should Republicans take control of Congress were widely portrayed as a lack of support for Ukraine.

“It’s amazing to me that that somehow made news,” McCarthy said in an interview on CNBC yesterday. “Wouldn’t you want a check and balance in Congress? Wouldn’t you want these hardworking taxpayers’ money, someone overseeing it? We’ve got to eliminate wasteful spending in Washington.”

In an interview with Punchbowl News on Tuesday, McCarthy said, “I think people are gonna be sitting in a recession and they’re not going to write a blank check to Ukraine. They just won’t do it.”

“I think Ukraine is very important. I support making sure that we move forward to defeat Russia in that program,” he clarified on CNBC. “But there should be no blank check on anything. We are $31 trillion in debt.”

PENCE: ‘NO ROOM FOR APOLOGISTS TO PUTIN’: In a speech delivered at the Heritage Foundation, former Vice President Mike Pence delivered a full-throated defense of U.S. support for Ukraine and rebuked conservatives who argue Ukraine should concede Russian control over parts of Ukraine to end the war.

“Appeasement has never worked, ever, in history. And now more than ever, we need a conservative movement committed to America’s role as leader of the free world and as a vanguard of American values,” Pence said in the speech, billed as an outline of his “freedom agenda” and his vision of America’s future.

“As Russia continues its unconscionable war of aggression on Ukraine, I believe that conservatives must make it clear that Putin must stop and Putin will pay. There can be no room in the conservative movement for apologists to Putin. There is only room in this movement for champions of freedom.”

KINZINGER: MCCARTHY GAVE ‘AID AND COMFORT TO THE ENEMY’: On CNN, Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-IL) said McCarthy’s comments seemed intended to assuage far-right members of his party whose votes he will need to become speaker if Republicans take over the House.

“What Kevin McCarthy said, maybe in his mind, he actually did believe that all he was saying is, hey, we want to have some oversight in this,” said Kinzinger, who is leaving Congress after the current term. “Folks over in Russia are going to be talking about this constantly on RT. You’re giving aid and comfort to the enemy, intentionally or unintentionally.”

“There are a lot of people, frankly, in the world that are worried about what a Republican majority could do — not because of the majority of Republicans, a majority of Republicans support Ukraine, [but] because, if it’s a 10-vote majority and people like Marjorie Taylor Greene, who has made it clear that Vladimir Putin is basically some defender of Christianity, has her way, it would be pretty tough to get stuff through Congress,” he said.

NO DOME FOR U: A day after Ukraine confirmed it had requested Israel’s advanced Iron Dome air defenses to increase its ability to shoot down Russia’s Iranian-made kamikaze drones, Israel flatly denied the request.

“Israel will not deliver weapon systems to Ukraine due to a variety of operational considerations,” Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz said Wednesday. “We will continue to support Ukraine within our limitations, as we have done in the past.”

That drew a sharp rebuke from Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT), who said on CNN, “Israel needs to get off the sidelines” and “stand up for Ukrainian democracy.”

“I just don’t buy that countries like Israel need to play both sides. This is a moment where you have to take a side and you have to stand with the people of Ukraine,” Murphy said. “Now, it’s important to note that it’s not only Israel that possesses Iron Dome capabilities that could assist Ukraine. The United States, in fact, could move towards transferring some of our Iron Dome capabilities to Ukraine as well.”

Murphy also proposed that the planned sale of Raytheon’s Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles, or AMRAAMs, intended for Saudi Arabia be “redirected” to Ukraine, where they could be used in a ground-to-air role with the launchers Ukraine has already been provided by the U.S.

“I would also like to see the United States take a look at the Patriot systems that we own and operate inside Saudi Arabia and look at sending those either to Ukraine or our other allies on the eastern flank of NATO,” Murphy said. “Patriots certainly should be on the table. Iron Dome should be on the table. But the immediate priority is these air-to-air AMRAAMs that can be converted to ground-to-air systems. That’s probably the fastest way to try to save lives inside Ukraine.”

ISRAEL REJECTS UKRAINE’S REQUEST FOR MILITARY AID AFTER RUSSIA’S THREAT

WALTZ: WHERE’S THE BRIEF? Rep. Mike Waltz (R-FL), a former Green Beret, wants to know why the Pentagon has yet to comply with a congressional mandate to brief lawmakers on how the Defense Department has secured, archived, and standardized operational data and intelligence gathered over the past two decades in Afghanistan.

“It’s been over a year since the failed withdrawal from Afghanistan and seven months past the Department of Defense’s mandated briefing deadline,” Waltz said in a statement. “I am becoming more and more concerned that during and since the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan, the critical data and intelligence collected in Afghanistan was left behind, lost, or misplaced.”

“The operational and intelligence data from Afghanistan is important for a holistic understanding of the war and must be accessible if future campaigns in Afghanistan occur,” Watz wrote in a letter to Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin. “I once again request, as mandated by federal law, to know what efforts, if any, did your department make to secure and preserve operational data from the Afghanistan War.”

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The Rundown

Washington Examiner: Putin enacts martial law in annexed regions of Ukraine

Washington Examiner: Israel rejects Ukraine’s request for military aid after Russia’s threat

Washington Examiner: Chinese military to ‘prepare for war’ as Xi Jinping menaces Taiwan

Washington Examiner: Editorial: The US military is not ready for China, and it needs to be

Washington Examiner: Arizona tells Biden it won’t tear down its border wall

Defense News: Worried China Might Seize Taiwan Sooner, Navy Chief Pushes Readiness

USNI News: China’s Accelerated Timeline To Take Taiwan Pushing Navy In The Pacific, Says CNO Gilday

CNN: Xi Jinping Wants China To ‘Win Local Wars.’ Russia’s Failures In Ukraine Show That’s Not So Easy

Reuters: Ukrainian Forces Push Toward Kherson, Kyiv Orders Electricity Curbs

Politico: NATO Is Rushing Equipment To Ukraine As Troops Hunker Down For The Winter

Washington Post: US has viewed wreckage of kamikaze drones Russia used in Ukraine

Washington Post: EU plans to penalize Iran for providing drones to Russia

Agence France Presse: Russia, Iran Defiant As West Presses Sanctions Over Drones In Ukraine

New York Times: ‘Loitering Munitions’ From Iran Add To Skies Teeming With Drones

Breaking Defense: A Musk Monopoly? For Now, Ukraine Has Few Options Outside Starlink for Battlefield Satcoms

AP: Top U.S. General In Middle East On Rare Visit To Nuclear-Armed Sub

Air & Space Forces Magazine: White House: Space Missions Are Federal, so No Need for a Space National Guard

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Gen. Mark D. Kelly on the Air Force Fighter Enterprise

Air & Space Forces Magazine: New Image Shows How B-52 Will Look After Engine, Radar Replacement

Stars and Stripes: ‘Eye To A Future Fight’: Marines See Australia As Power-Projection Hub, Former Officer Says

Military.com: Should the National Guard Get Free Health Care? Gen. Hokanson Is Trying to Make It Happen

19fortyfive.com: The United States Has Entered the ‘Danger Zone’ with China

19fortyfive.com: NATO Is Training for A Nuclear War with Russia Right Now

19fortyfive.com: Ukraine’s ‘Slow Death’ Military Strategy to Beat Russia in Kherson

19fortyfive.com: Why Putin Declared Martial Law in Parts of Ukraine: Desperation

19fortyfive.com: Ukraine’s Big Military Goal: Free Crimea from Russia?

19fortyfive.com: Need Tanks or Howitzers? South Korea Has It All

Coffee or Die: SEAL Hero Brian Bourgeois Posthumously Promoted To Captain

Calendar

THURSDAY | OCTOBER 20

7:45 a.m. 11100 Johns Hopkins Rd., Laurel, Maryland — National Defense Industrial Association Precision Strike Technology Symposium, with the theme “Integrated Precision Warfare in an Era of Major Power Conflict,” with Brad Cardwell, program manager at the Missile Defense Agency. Register at https://www.ndia.org

10 a.m. — Hudson Institute virtual book discussion: “China after Mao: The Rise of a Superpower,” with author Frank Dikotter, chair professor of humanities at the University of Hong Kong https://www.hudson.org/events/2151-china-after-mao

11:15 a.m. — CyberScoop CyberTalks discussion: “Strategic Modernization of the OSD IT Enterprise,” with Danielle Metz, director, information management and technology, and chief information officer, Office of the Secretary of Defense https://upgather.com/cybertalks/

12 p.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “How the latest women-led protests in Iran might shape the country’s trajectory,” with Hadi Ghaemi, executive director of the Center for Human Rights in Iran; Golnaz Esfandiari, senior correspondent at Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty; Nader Hashemi, director of the University of Denver’s Center for Middle East Studies; and Assal Rad, research director at the National Iranian American Council https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event

6 p.m. Los Angeles, California — Space Industry Days virtual and in-person event, with Army Gen. James Dickinson, commander, U.S. Space Command https://afcea-la.org/events/space-industry-days-2022/

FRIDAY | OCTOBER 21

10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion: “Transatlantic Relations,” focusing on the war in Ukraine and foreign policy priorities, with French Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs Catherine Colonna https://www.csis.org/events/discussing-transatlantic-relations

TUESDAY | OCTOBER 25

8:30 a.m. 1700 Army Navy Dr., Arlington, Virginia — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies first annual Spacepower Security Forum with Gen. David Thompson, vice chief of space operations; Lt. Gen. Stephen Whiting, commander, Space Operations Command; Air Commodore John Haly, air and space attache, Australian Defense Staff; Air Commodore Jeremy Attridge, U.K. air and space attache to the U.S.; Derek Tournear, director, Space Development Agency; and retired Air Force Gen. Kevin Chilton, former commander, U.S. Strategic Command https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/event

WEDNESDAY | OCTOBER 26

8:15 a.m. Brussels, Belgium — NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg press conference with Romanian Prime Minister Nicolae Ciuca at NATO Headquarters