The Ukrainian and U.S. governments have confirmed to RFE that Javelin anti-tank weapons are now on Ukrainian soil. Last December, President Trump authorized the provision of Javelins to the Ukrainian military to help them resist Russian and Russian-supported rebel formations operating in southeastern Ukraine.
But now we have to consider how Russian President Vladimir Putin will respond to the Javelins arrival. After all, Putin has warned that the Javelins would meet an unkind Russian response.
As I see it, there are three likely responses.
First, Putin might respond to the Javelins delivery with a major new offensive. At present, Russian-supported ground forces are in short-notice striking range of strategic cities/towns like Mariupol, Avdiivka, Novhorodske, Popasna, and Hirske. My map below shows a rough outline of the current front lines (based on https://liveuamap.com/) and the potential offensive lines Russian-aligned forces could pursue. Note also that Rostov-On-Don (red circle) is the headquarters for the Russian Army’s Southern Command.
Second, Putin may decide to do nothing. While that might not seem like a typical Putin move, the logic of this choice rests in the fact that the Javelins don’t alter the fundamental state of balance on the battlefield. Russia continues to retain its position and influence in southeastern Ukraine.
But by not advancing further, Putin can say, “Look, I’m trying to cut a deal here.” As he seeks to consolidate Bashar Assad’s position in Syria and get western nations to cease their opposition to Assad, Putin has a broader interest in avoiding aggravating Western leaders over Ukraine.
Third, Putin may react in a qualified manner, increasing pressure on the pro-Western government in Kiev and pushing against Ukrainian army positions in southeastern Ukraine, but avoiding major escalation. This is the likeliest response in that it allows Putin to send a message of discontented resolution against the Javelins while avoiding complicated risks.
Still, any pushback should not be considered as peripheral or irrelevant. Russian actions to counter the Ukrainian government and its allies have included assassinations on Ukrainian soil, in Russia, and at least one suspected assassination in the West.
If further acts of Russian aggression occur, the U.S. and Britain should push the European Union to implement new sanctions targeting the Russian economy.
