There is no way to mince words or twist the numbers. If the election were held today, President Trump would lose to Joe Biden. It would not be close — not in the Electoral College and not in the popular vote.

Luckily for Trump, he still has more than four months to put down the phone, buck up, and turn the ship around. But unfortunately for Trump, there’s one massive factor that puts a ceiling on his ability to change the fundamental dynamics of the election: namely, that Joe Biden is not Hillary Clinton.