Now that we know House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., is not seeking re-election, voters in Wisconsin’s 1st Congressional District will have a Ryan-less ballot for the first time since 1998 come November.
The Democratic primary to challenge Ryan has been dominated by iron worker Randy Bryce — known for his viral campaign launch video — who’s raised a serious amount of cash for a long shot candidate. With Ryan’s retirement, Bryce’s chances still aren’t great, but they’re somewhat better (The Crosstab bumped his odds up to 42 percent), especially given the state Supreme Court results last week, which signaled that a blue wave is set to crash against Wisconsin. Even so, as Bryce’s bid for the nomination has unfolded and some of his past problems have made their way into news reports, he’s hardly proven to be the perfect candidate.
Whomever Republicans do nominate for the seat will be favored to win it, but it’s also more competitive than Ryan’s 35-point margin of victory in the last election might suggest. In fact, he’s only earned under 60 percent of the vote in an election once after his first race — in 2012 when he was on the ballot for vice president, and even then he still prevailed by double-digits.
Ryan’s district — which stretches from the Illinois border up to Racine and Milwaukee counties, west to more rural Walworth County, then into the southern half of ultra-conservative Waukesha County — has favored Republican presidential candidates in every cycle with the exception of 2008, when Barack Obama won 51 to 48 percent, according to stats compiled at Daily Kos. Dave Wasserman reported on Wednesday morning that a Republican source close to Ryan shared internal polling that showed the speaker besting Bryce by a 21-point margin of and Republicans ahead in the generic ballot 48 to 36 percent.
Fifty-five percent would be a low share of the vote for Ryan, which is perhaps to be expected in such a tough midterm cycle for Republicans. It also makes sense that Ryan is out-polling Republicans on the generic ballot. A Marquette Law School poll released last month found Ryan was viewed favorably by 46 percent of registered voters, higher than every other politician respondents were surveyed about, with the exception of Governor Scott Walker, although Ryan’s net favorability was higher. Ryan was seen unfavorably by only 39 percent compared with Walker’s 48. Ryan’s personal popularity is probably responsible for the district remaining so safe for so long.
Kyle Kondik of Sabato’s Crystal Ball put it well when he described Ryan’s district last month as Republican, but “not so Republican that a Democrat couldn’t compete there under the right circumstances.” Bryce has good money, and there’s clearly a blue wave building in Wisconsin, so the odds of him being able to compete are certainly up. But if Republicans are able to field a solid replacement for Ryan — which shouldn’t be difficult in a state with a robust conservative grassroots — the GOP should hang on to his seat.
