President Trump is battling to defend a single Electoral College vote in Nebraska, with polls showing him trailing Democratic nominee Joe Biden in a micro-contest that could conceivably decide the race for the White House.
Nebraska awards electoral votes per congressional district, and Trump lags Biden by an average of 6 percentage points in a competitive, Omaha-area House district that Barack Obama won a dozen years ago. Just one vote in the Electoral College is at stake. But if the race for 270 ends in a photo-finish, voters in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District could tip the balance of power. Privately, Republican insiders concede Trump is in trouble there.
“Biden is likely to win the district by a single digit margin,” said a Republican operative privy to private GOP polling taken before Trump was diagnosed with the coronavirus.
The Trump campaign claims otherwise. “We are confident that Nebraska’s crucial 2nd Congressional District will deliver yet another win to President Trump, and that the enthusiasm for the president will help down ballot candidates throughout the district,” spokesman Ken Farnaso said. The campaign has dispatched Vice President Mike Pence, Trump’s eldest son Donald Trump Jr., and his daughter-in-law Lara Trump to the district to rally votes for the president.
Nebraska has not voted for a Democrat for president, statewide, since 1964. Obama defeated Republican nominee John McCain in the 2nd District by 1.2 percentage points in 2008. But four years later, after district boundaries were redrawn to give the GOP a bigger partisan advantage, Republican nominee Mitt Romney recaptured the seat’s electoral vote with 53%. The seat swung back toward the Democrats in 2016, although Trump narrowly hung on with 47% of the vote.
Less than a month before Election Day, Democrats and Republicans monitoring this mini battleground say Trump faces the same headwinds there as elsewhere. Greater Omaha to the north is predominately black, and southern Omaha, formerly white working class, has seen an influx of Hispanics. Between those two blue regions are the Democrat-friendly suburbs of west Omaha. Trump appears to be heavily reliant on Republican-heavy Sarpy County, south of the city, to hold off Biden.
The president would be in better shape in the 2nd District if he focused there on the genteel conservatism of Republicans like Gov. Pete Ricketts and Sen. Ben Sasse instead of the populism that works better in western Nebraska, GOP insiders with experience in the state say.
Biden has moved quickly to exploit Trump’s challenges with robust television advertising and voter turnout activities. “None of them want to vote for somebody who’s mean, and Trump comes off as mean and a cruel leader,” Nebraska Democratic Party Chairwoman Jane Kleeb said of women and nonwhite voters.
“Our campaign is building a broad coalition of Democrats, Independents and Republicans who are united behind Joe Biden,” added Rachel Caine, Biden’s Nebraska campaign director.
That effort has helped Democrats lower the Republican advantage in registered voters in the 2nd District, slicing what had been a 9,000 GOP edge to 5,000.
Ricketts is taking the threat seriously. He has a close relationship with Trump, and his brother, Todd Ricketts, is the Republican National Committee finance chairman. The governor is working closely with the Trump campaign behind the scenes to boost support for the president in Omaha.
Rep. Don Bacon, the Republican running for reelection in the 2nd District, is in a dogfight with Kara Eastman, a Democrat who supports nationalizing health care and is, theoretically, too liberal for the seat. Even Rep. Jeff Fortenberry, the incumbent Republican in the reliably red 1st District that includes Lincoln, the state capital, is having to work harder than usual to stiff-arm his Democratic challenger.
