If China declares a new air defense identification zone in the South China Sea, the world must rally to reject it. What’s at stake here is the future of the global economy in the aftermath of the coronavirus pandemic.
The ADIZ issue is a newly relevant concern in light of Taiwan’s Ministry of Defense statement last week warning of just this possibility. The ADIZ would require civilian and military aircraft entering the zone to radio Chinese military air controllers with their flight plans and requests for transit approval. China has already declared an ADIZ in the East China Sea. As with that ADIZ, China would hope that the new zone buys practical formality for its sovereignty claims in the South China Sea.
While its claims are quite laughable, Beijing has already appointed itself the owner of vast areas of the sea, demanding that foreign nations avoid transiting through the waters without first seeking its permission. Contrary to China’s lie that it only seeks friendship with all nations, this territorial seizure campaign aims to extract political deference from regional nations and global trading powers in return for transit rights. And considering that the South China Sea accounts for trillions of dollars in annual trade, this is a big deal.
But there are ways to obstruct China’s imperial agenda.
Preserving a fundamental tenet of the post-World War II U.S.-led international order, the right to free transit of international waters and airspace, the U.S. military is actively resisting these Chinese territorial claims. And thanks to China’s unrepentant arrogance and the absurdity of its claims, regional nations are increasing their opposition to Beijing.
That said, there’s little doubt that a new Chinese ADIZ declaration would pose problems. International airliners would lean towards adhering to the Chinese edict in fear of a People’s Liberation Army miscalculation. And smaller, less wealthy nations such as Vietnam and Malaysia would worry about Chinese reprisals if they failed to accept the ruling. China would bank on these fears as it bullied nations into accepting its declaration.
But what if more powerful nations stood in support of others?
If a significant plurality of nations joined together to ignore and defy a new ADIZ, and told their airliners to do the same, that ADIZ wouldn’t effectively exist. Such a show of resolution would rebuke Beijing, educating Chinese President Xi Jinping that the world won’t bow to his rule. In that scenario, China would have few options other than to whine. After all, were it to shoot down a transiting foreign military flight or passenger airliner, China would face truly global fury. China’s economic plan to ensure the world’s increasing import dependence and increasing intellectual property transfers would collapse.
If a new ADIZ does come, it will be up to the United States to take the lead here. That would entail early and regular flights through the ADIZ in rejection of Chinese identification concerns. And a truly global diplomatic effort to reject the ADIZ in legal standing and transit practice. But doing nothing wouldn’t be an option. That course might seem preferable in the short term, but it would quickly encourage and consolidate China’s imperial campaign.
