NO END IN SIGHT: It seems certain that 2023 will be a critical year for the war in Ukraine as the ravages of Vladimir Putin’s illegal and ill-conceived invasion exact a terrible toll on both sides. It seems equally likely the war will not end this year, with both sides committed to demands for the other’s total capitulation.
In his speech to Congress on Dec. 21, President Volodymyr Zelensky vowed Ukraine would “hold its lines and never surrender,” calling the war a battle “not only for the territory” but a “struggle will define in what world our children and grandchildren will live.”
The last two weeks have seen Russia escalate its relentless missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure while digging miles of World War I-style trenches to try to hold out its captured territory against Ukraine’s determined counteroffensive while blaming the United States for helping Ukraine defend itself.
“As for how long the conflict may last, the ball is in the court of the regime and Washington, which stands behind it,” said Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in a year-end interview with the state-controlled Tass news agency. “The enemy is well aware of our proposals concerning demilitarization and denazification. … There is not much left to be done. All they need to do is fulfill these proposals of their own volition. Otherwise, the issue will be resolved by the Russian Army.”
WHAT IS NEXT IN THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR?
PUTIN’S IN A BOX: In what appears to be one of the deadliest attacks on Russian forces since the start of the invasion, Ukrainian HIMARS rockets hit a school building used as a barracks for Russian troops in the pre-dawn hours of New Year’s Day. The strike in Makiivka, in Ukraine’s Donetsk region, drew howls of criticism from Russian milbloggers about the incompetence of the military leadership for housing a large group of soldiers near an ammunition depot, which exploded, compounding the death toll.
Ukraine claimed 400 enemy dead, 300 wounded. Russia confirmed only 63 deaths. But Putin continues to project an image of a leader undeterred by the mounting casualty count.
“He is willing to accept a lot of casualties — up to 300,000, according to what one NATO member is now telling allies,” said Anton Troianovski, Moscow bureau chief for the New York Times, in an interview last month. “The way Putin looks at it is that the Soviet Union lost 27 million people in World War II, and he’s convinced that the Russian people are prepared to suffer — more than people in the West.”
“It’s very clear that there are months, if not years, of tough fighting ahead before the very crucial calculation is made in the Kremlin, which is the realization that this war is unsustainable for Russia in the same way that Afghanistan was unsustainable for the Soviet Union,” said retired Gen. David Petraeus, former CENTCOM commander and CIA director, in an interview on CNN in late December.
UKRAINE CLAIMS TO HAVE KILLED 400 RUSSIANS IN MISSILE ATTACK
GETTING TO A TURNING POINT: During his whirlwind pre-Christmas visit to Washington, Zelensky said he believed 2023 would be “a turning point” in the war, but only if Ukraine gets the weapons it needs to defeat Russia decisively on the battlefield. “We have artillery, yes. Thank you. We have it. Is it enough? Honestly, not really.”
“Most important thing that the Ukrainians need is long-range loitering, munitions, something similar to the Iranian drones,” said retired Army Gen. Wes Clark, former NATO commander, on CNN. “They need to be able to go back beyond the HIMARS range and go after the Russian supply depots and command posts that have been moved out of range.”
“This war is rapidly evolving into a World War I kind of trench warfare where the Russians are really emplacing their positions in Donbas. And it is going to take massive fire support. Not necessarily artillery, could be aircraft, but we’re not giving them the aircraft they need,” said Clark.
“Why do we allow Russia to fire from sanctuary?” asked retired Gen. Ben Hodges, former U.S. Army Europe commander, in a tweet. “By not providing ATACMS, F16’s and other long-range strike capabilities to UKR, we have in effect granted sanctuary to Russia which is able to kill innocent civilians in Ukraine without fear of consequences.”
Hodges was among several retired U.S. military commanders cheering a report by Bloomberg that the Biden administration is considering sending Bradley Fighting Vehicles to Ukraine.
“Bradley Fighting Vehicle is the kind of technology edge [that] can help Ukraine bring this war to a close,” tweeted retired Gen. Barry McCaffrey. “Also need to add M1 Abrams tank. ATACMS 300 km missiles. Armed Reaper drones. Backed up by contractor maintenance in Poland and Romania.”
OPINION: ON UKRAINE, BIDEN SHOULD TAKE OFF THE GLOVES
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HAPPENING TODAY ON THE HILL: Today marks the beginning of the 118th Congress and the day Republicans take control of the House of Representatives by a slim 222-213 margin. The first order of business is to elect a new speaker, which is decided by a vote of all 435 House members, with GOP hopeful Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) needing 218 votes, or a majority of those voting, to secure the leadership position he has coveted for years.
Normally the selection of a speaker is a done deal by now, but McCarthy has been wheeling and dealing for weeks, trying to secure the votes of the so-called Never Kevin caucus, which is poised, if not to block McCarthy’s speaker bid, then at least force a series of embarrassing votes. McCarthy can afford to lose only four votes, and five hard-right conservatives — former House Freedom Caucus Chairman Andy Biggs (R-AZ), Reps. Matt Gaetz (R-FL), Bob Good (R-VA), Ralph Norman (R-SC), and Matt Rosendale (R-MT) — have vowed to act together to block his election.
“He’s part of the swamp cartel,” said Good on Fox News yesterday. “He’s part of the problem. He’s not part of the solution. And there’s nothing he’s done to earn my vote.”
After a late-night meeting in McCarthy’s office last night failed to head off what appears to be a looming floor fight, the first since 1923, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) was quoted by CNN as saying, “If my friends in the Freedom Caucus, Matt Gaetz and others, will not take the win when they have it, they’re proving to the country that they don’t care about doing the right thing for America. They’re proving … they’re just destructionist.”
MCCARTHY SCRAMBLES FOR SUPPORT ON EVE OF SPEAKER VOTE
SUN SETS ON JAN. 6 COMMITTEE: With Republicans back in charge in the House, the Democratic-controlled Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the U.S. Capitol is shutting down with a warning and a parting shot at the aspiring House speaker.
“In the days after January 6th, nearly all members of Congress knew what had happened was profoundly wrong,” wrote Chairman Bennie Thompson (D-MS) and Vice Chairwoman Liz Cheney (R-WY) in a goodbye message. “The Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy said so publicly, indicating that President Trump ‘bears responsibility,’ and privately telling his colleagues that he would recommend that Trump resign from office. But just weeks later, the defense of the indefensible began.”
The two representatives also sent a Dec. 30 letter to White House counsel Richard Sauber expressing “concern for the safety, security, and reputations of our witnesses.”
“As of next week when the Committee dissolves, the Committee will no longer exercise control over this material, and thus cannot ensure enforcement of the commitment to maintain the confidentiality of the identity of the witnesses,” Thompson and Cheney wrote. “Pursuant to long-standing House rules, the official records of the Committee will be archived and pass into the control of the National Archives.”
THE PENTAGON PAPERS: Among the avalanche of witness transcripts released by the Jan. 6 committee over the last two weeks are many firsthand accounts of the chaos and dysfunction at the Pentagon during the final year and waning days of the Trump administration.
The transcripts paint a picture of how Trump’s impulsive leadership style continually upended the Pentagon’s deliberative policymaking process, including bolt-from-blue orders for a total withdrawal from Afghanistan and Somalia and questionable edicts to punish Trump’s political enemies.
Among the transcripts Pentagon scholars will want to peruse are those of former acting Defense Secretary Chris Miller, former Army Secretary Ryan McCarthy, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Mark Milley, former chief of staff Kash Patel, and former Pentagon spokeswoman Alyssa Farah Griffin.
MILLEY: NO ROLE FOR MILITARY IN ELECTIONS: In Milley’s interview, which was conducted in November of 2021, the chairman described his battle to keep the U.S. military out of the election controversy, even as retired Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn was advising Trump he would declare martial law and seize voting machines in disputed election districts.
“The military doesn’t have a role in determining outcomes of elections. That is the prerogative of the American people,” Milley told the committee. “If for whatever reason it’s contested, it goes to the courts. … And at no point in that process, zero, not a single part of that process includes the United States military.”
Milley was also aghast that Trump wanted to recall active-duty and court-martial retired generals who criticized him publicly. “And there was actually discussions with me: Bring him back on active duty, court-martial him, you know, make him walk the plank sort of thing,” said Milley, who said he advised strongly against it, even when it came to Flynn, who he said played a part in Jan. 6 and was “saying and doing things” he fundamentally disagreed with.
“Bringing him back on active duty to court-martial him and subject him to crimes based on the Uniform Code of Military Justice is a giant step. I’m not saying it can’t be done or shouldn’t be done. I’m just saying that that would be a presidential decision … not something that should be done lightly.”
In an interview on CNN yesterday, Alyssa Farah Griffin, who worked with Milley during her stint at the Pentagon, called the general a “roadblock against these terrible instincts by the former president.”
“It just goes to show Donald Trump does not even understand the U.S. military that he oversaw,” she said. “This idea that, you know, somebody who [was] in the military shouldn’t be able to criticize him is absurd. That’s something you would expect to see in the Kremlin, not the United States. And it’s just, you know, another dot to remember in the long and long list of things that make him so unqualified to ever hold office again.”
JAN. 6 TRANSCRIPTS: MILLEY BLASTS FLYNN FOR ‘UNNERVING’ STATEMENTS LEADING UP TO CAPITOL RIOT
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Ukraine claims to have killed 400 Russians in missile attack
Washington Examiner: Zelensky tells Russians ‘no one will ever forgive you’ after NYE strike on Ukraine
Washington Examiner: Supporting Ukraine and countering China top the Pentagon’s 2023 to-do list
Washington Examiner: What is next in the Russia-Ukraine war?
Washington Examiner: Opinion: On Ukraine, Biden should take off the gloves
Washington Examiner: The new space race: NASA fears US is locked in battle for the moon with China
Washington Examiner: WATCH: Rep. Mike Gallagher calls TikTok ‘digital fentanyl,’ calls for national ban
Washington Examiner: Putin invites Xi to Moscow, pledges increased military partnership
Washington Examiner: ‘Deterrence the American way’: What the Air Force’s B-21 stealth bomber means
Washington Examiner: New House committee focuses on China threat
Washington Examiner: Chinese jet came within yards of US military aircraft
Washington Examiner: South Korea’s unannounced rocket launch has people saying they saw UFOs
Washington Examiner: Haines talks ‘pre-butting’ Russian disinformation on Ukraine
Washington Examiner: CENTCOM killed more than 650 ISIS operatives in 2022, but their ideology lives on
Washington Examiner: Biden administration recommits to Paul Whelan’s return four years after arrest
Washington Examiner: Jan. 6 transcripts: Milley blasts Flynn for ‘unnerving’ statements leading up to Capitol riot
AP: Lavrov: Ukraine must demilitarize or Russia will do it
AP: Taiwan extends compulsory military service to 1 year
AP: Troubles aside, Xi says China on ‘right side of history’
Wall Street Journal: China Asserts Military Power Against U.S. With Naval Drills, Air Intercept
AP: Moscow says Ukrainian rocket strike kills 63 Russian troops
New York Times: Ukraine Shot Down All 39 Drones From Russia On Monday
Washington Post: Missiles rain down on Ukraine as Putin gives combative New Year speech
AP: Iran tests military drones in wargame near Strait of Hormuz
Proceedings: ‘It Is About Being Combat Ready’: An Interview With Navy Secretary Del Toro
NPR: The Marines Are Supposed To Fully Open Boot Camp To Women But Continue To Resist
Marine Corps Times: New In 2023: Marine Corps To Move Away From Tape Test
AP: Former soldier tasked with getting Navy builder in shipshape
AP: Navy to name ship after Marine battles in Fallujah, Iraq
Forbes: Opinion: If Russia Is This Bad At Conventional Warfare, What Does That Tell Us About Its Nuclear Posture?
Washington Post: Opinion A compromise on the military covid vaccine mandate
Calendar
TUESDAY | JANUARY 3
7 p.m. 5015 Connecticut Ave. NW — Politics and Prose bookstore book discussion: Courage Under Fire: Under Siege and Outnumbered 58 to 1, with author and former U.S. Capitol Police Chief Steven Sund https://www.politics-prose.com/event/book
WEDNESDAY | JANUARY 4
2 p.m. — Washington Post Live virtual discussion on the fentanyl crisis, border security, and Title 42, with Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live
THURSDAY | JANUARY 5
9 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “Unanswered Questions about North Korean Leadership,” with Bruce Klingner, senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation’s Asian Studies Center; Soo Kim, policy analyst at the RAND Corporation; John Delury, professor of Chinese studies at Yonsei University’s Graduate School of International Studies; and Sue Mi Terry, director of the CSIS’s Asia Program https://www.csis.org/events/unanswered-questions-about-north-korean-leadership
FRIDAY | JANUARY 6
12 p.m. Union Square, 3rd St. SW — Progressive Democrats of America, the Not Above the Law Coalition, and the Declaration for American Democracy hold a “Our Freedoms, Our Vote” Jan. 6 rally “to remember what happened two years ago,” with Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD); Martin Luther King III, activist and son of the late Martin Luther King Jr.; and Andrea Waters King, president of the Drum Major Institute and wife of Martin Luther King III https://www.mobilize.us/jan6hearings/event/545269/
MONDAY | JANUARY 8
2 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies report launch: “The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan,” with co-authors Mark Cancian, Matthew Cancian, and Eric Heginbotham, along with a panel discussion with retired Air Force Lt. Gen. David Deptula; Becca Wasser, senior fellow, Center for a New American Security; and William Murray, professor, U.S. Naval War College. https://www.csis.org/events/report-launch
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“If my friends in the Freedom Caucus, Matt Gaetz and others, will not take the win when they have it, they’re proving to the country that they don’t care about doing the right thing for America. They’re proving … they’re just destructionist.”
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA), following a late-night meeting trying to get the “Never Kevin” five on board with voting for Rep. Keven McCarthy (R-CA) as speaker of the House
