PARIS — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin are set to begin a dialogue here Monday that could decide whether armed Kremlin forces will be present for a high-stakes election in eastern Ukraine.
“It’s part of the discussion,” a French official, whose government is hosting the so-called Normandy Format meeting, told the Washington Examiner. “It’s part of the subjects [on] which the parties have not had a lot of interactions.”
A long-awaited and as yet unscheduled election could restore Ukrainian sovereignty in the war zone or elect a local government loyal to Putin. No date has been set for the elections, pending a decision on whether Russia first will withdraw.
“This is the trap the Russians want to set for Zelensky: they want to have elections when Russian forces and [Russian-led forces] are still there,” a former senior U.S. official who is in touch with European officials told the Washington Examiner on condition of anonymity.
Putin often portrays the conflict as a Ukrainian civil war pitting the central government against ethnic Russians in the eastern region of Donbass. Zelensky — a Jewish comedian who swept into office in April with 73% of the vote — now is faced with fulfilling his campaign promise to end the war in Donbass.
Zelensky wants Russia to withdraw all forces from Ukrainian territory that Moscow has controlled since 2014. Western analysts thought earlier this year that Zelensky had a good chance of achieving that, but his plans to confront Putin from a position of strength were upended by President Trump’s refusal to meet with him unless he accused Joe Biden of corruption.
“The whole point of the Ukrainian diplomacy with the United States was so that Moscow would see that Washington has Kyiv’s back,” a U.S.-based Central European policy specialist who is active in Ukrainian issues told the Washington Examiner. “He can’t do that now.”
Some have suggested that Ukraine might hold elections while the Russian forces remain.
“Zelensky is a little tempted, because of his popularity, to say ‘I could have elections there, even with the Russians there, and still win,’” the former senior U.S. official said. “It’s hubris.” That critique is consistent with the view of many American national security experts who don’t want Zelensky to roll the dice on an agreement that would give Russian forces a chance to steal the election.
“There is a lot of concern about whether there can be a free election in the Donbass,” retired Air Force Gen. Philip Breedlove, the supreme allied commander of NATO when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014, said during a recent Washington Examiner interview. “How do you have an election under the barrel of a gun?”
The elections could be monitored by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, Breedlove said, adding, “It’s sort of a fox-in-the-henhouse thing. Russia is a part of the OSCE.”
Monday’s Normandy Format meeting is not expected to produce major accord immediately. Instead, the two sides likely will announce more symbolic agreements designed to build confidence between the warring parties.
