Afghanistan president makes ‘detailed peace offer’ to the Taliban

LET’S GET THIS PROCESS STARTED: President Trump may not be interested in talking to the Taliban after a series of deadly attacks this year, but Afghanistan’s President Ashraf Ghani is. Ghani opened the 2nd Kabul Process Conference, attended by representatives from about two dozen countries, with what he called on Twitter “a detailed peace offer to Taliban and Pakistan on behalf of the Afghan people.”

The offer called for a ceasefire, an exchange of prisoners and included a promise to extend official recognition of the Taliban as a legitimate political group, as well as including the group in the political process and review of the country’s constitution. “We are making this offer without preconditions in order to lead to a peace agreement,” Ghani said in his opening remarks to the international conference.

THE TALIBAN’S POSITION: In a statement issued Monday, the Taliban called on U.S. officials to talk directly to their political office. Deputy Assistant Secretary for South and Central Asia Alice Wells has said the U.S. is keeping the door open to dialogue, according to the AP.

It was just over three weeks ago Trump said, “I don’t see any talking taking place,” at the start of a White House meeting with members of the U.N. Security Council. “I don’t think we’re prepared to talk right now. It’s a whole different fight over there. They’re killing people left and right. Innocent people are being killed left and right,” Trump said.

Over the weekend, Taliban fighters attacked a checkpoint in the far western part of the country, killing at least 18 Afghan soldiers. Last month, the Taliban also claimed responsibility for an ambulance bomb in the center of Kabul that killed more than 100 people, and the storming of a luxury hotel in the capital that killed 22.

RECONCILIATION IS THE GOAL: The top general overseeing the 16-year-old war in Afghanistan told Congress yesterday that the new strategy reluctantly approved by Trump last summer has a real chance of success. “The big idea here, with what we’re trying to do in Afghanistan right now, is drive towards reconciliation. This is different than the approach we’ve had in the past,” U.S. Central Commander Gen. Joseph Votel testified before the House Armed Services Committee.

“The focus of our military operations is on increasing and expanding population control by the government of Afghanistan,” Votel said. “Our intention is to break the stalemate, grab the initiative, begin to expand population control in this year and next year and then ensure that we create an environment here that allows for credible elections to take place, one of the most important things that the Afghan people need to see from their government.”

METRIC OF SUCCESS: Votel faced questions from some skeptical committee members about the recent criticism from independent Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction John Sopko. He complained last month that some key metrics of success were being withheld from the American public, including the performance of the Afghan armed forces and the percentage of Afghans living under government control. “Some of that information is not necessarily U.S. government information,” Votel said. “It is information of the Afghan government, and so, they control the release and classification of that information.”

But Votel did provide the committee with the latest figures that show that 64 percent of Afghans are in areas controlled by the government, 12 percent are under Taliban control, and the remaining 24 percent live in contested areas.

RUSSIA, IRAN COMPLICATE SYRIA: In his two hours of testimony, Votel consistently said Russia and Iran, by propping up Syrian President Bashar Assad, were working directly against U.S. interests and undermining prospects for peace. Votel leveled his harshest criticism at the Russians. “They play the role of both arsonists and firemen, fueling tensions and then trying to resolve them in their favor and manipulating all the parties they can to try to achieve their objectives, and not necessarily the broader objectives of the international community here.”

On Iran, Votel made a point of saying U.S. troops are in Syria for the sole purpose of defeating the Islamic State, and not to counter the influence of Iran. Yet keeping U.S. forces in Syria after ISIS is defeated on the battlefield will help thwart Iran indirectly by consolidating and securing gains made by U.S.-backed Kurdish and Arab fighters. “I think one of the most effective things that we can do in this particular area is build strong relationships,” he said.

CONVERGING FORCES, DIVERGING INTERESTS: The war in Syria is entering a new phase as ISIS is reduced to a small pocket in the Middle Euphrates River Valley, where Votel says competing forces are converging while their interests are diverging. “They are less concerned about rooting out ISIS than they are about going and addressing some of the opposition elements to the regime. … As the threat of ISIS is removed, we will begin to see more of a return to the underlying challenges that really gave birth to many of these other problems in the country, those are ultimately going to have to be addressed through some type of Geneva process that brings the parties together.”

Good Wednesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre), National Security Writer Travis J. Tritten (@travis_tritten) and Senior Editor David Brown (@dave_brown24). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense.

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SUSPICIOUS SUBSTANCE: Several people reported feeling sick after an envelope containing a suspicious substance was opened yesterday afternoon on the Marine Corps side of Joint Base Myer-Henderson Hall in Arlington, Va., around 3:30 p.m. “Shortly after receiving the letter, 11 people started to feel ill and caused the evacuation of the building,” said a statement issued by the base last night. “After the evaluation of 11 people, three personnel were transported in stable condition for further medical evaluations.”

CNN reported this morning that field tests came back negative for any harmful substance, and quoted law enforcement officials as saying the letter contained derogatory language, at times unintelligible, addressed to a commanding officer at the base. The Naval Criminal Investigative Service and FBI are conducting a joint investigation, and further testing of the mystery substance is underway.

TRUMP ‘POLITICAL THEATER’: Trump struck a deal with Boeing to buy two new Air Force One 747 jetliners for $3.9 billion, and the White House touted the deal as another example of the president’s negotiating prowess. “Thanks to the president’s negotiations, the contract will save the taxpayers more than $1.4 billion,” deputy White House press secretary Hogan Gidley said in a statement to the Washington Examiner.

The thing is, industry experts can’t make the math work. The purported savings would mean the original price was $5.3 billion, a figure no one seems to know the basis for. In December 2016, Trump railed that the $4 billion price tag was “out of control” and threatened to cancel the order. The Air Force budget listed the program fiscal 2019 at $3.9 billion, while last year’s budget had the two-aircraft program listed at $3.6 billion, not adjusted for inflation.

“There’s no evidence of a discount,” U.S. aerospace analyst Richard Aboulafia told Reuters. Aboulafia, vice president of analysis at Teal Group, accused the Trump White House of engaging in “political theater.”

A Boeing official, when asked about the increase, dodged the question and merely listed the work to be covered by the contract. Boeing also sent out a tweet that was music to the president’s ears. “Boeing is proud to build the next generation of Air Force One, providing American Presidents with a flying White House at outstanding value to taxpayers. President Trump negotiated a good deal on behalf of the American people.”

HAPPENING TODAY, TRUMP’S SPACE BUDGET: The Center for Strategic and International Studies hosts a forum this morning at 8 on national security in space and what Trump’s fiscal 2019 budget request would do to address it. Reps. Mike Rogers and Jim Cooper, the two lawmakers behind the push to create a Space Corps, will speak together on a panel. Also, Reps. Doug Lamborn and Dutch Ruppersberger will talk about the views of their Space Power Caucus.

RUSSIA PAYS NO PRICE: The outgoing head of U.S. Cyber Command had harsh words for Russia in testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee. Adm. Mike Rogers, who is also National Security Agency director, told the committee that Trump has not specifically authorized the U.S. to disrupt Russian cyber operations or head off potential attacks on the 2018 elections.

“I believe that President Putin has clearly come to the conclusion there’s little price to pay here, and that therefore I can continue this activity.”

DEMS WANT RUSSIA COUNTERPUNCH: That testimony infuriated Democrats on the committee who were slack-jawed that no cyber countermeasures were being employed. “Why the hell not? What’s it going to take?” said Sen. Claire McCaskill. “I want somebody to sit in that chair and say to the United States of America we’ve got this and until we have that moment, Russia is winning and that is disgusting.” Democrat after Democrat questioned Rogers about a cyber counterpunch to fend off Russia before the midterm elections, but Rogers said he would need direction from the president or Defense Secretary Jim Mattis to target the foreign operations. “I don’t have the day-to-day authority to do that,” he said.

Three Armed Services Democrats wrote to Mattis Feb. 6 asking that he take action against the Russians, who hacked the Democratic Party’s emails and used an army of bots in an attempt to stoke U.S. political divisions online. Intelligence officials have also warned Moscow will target the elections this fall. “One of the things that we asked is that the national mission teams, which are part of the U.S. Cyber Command’s cyber mission, should be ordered to prepare to engage Russian cyber operators and disrupt their activities as they conduct clandestine influence operations against our forthcoming elections,” said Sen. Bill Nelson, who sent the letter with Sens. Jeanne Shaheen and Richard Blumenthal.

Rogers, an Obama appointee who is set to retire this spring, pushed back on assertions that nothing has been done in response to the Russian meddling, saying he has taken some steps under his existing authority. “Based on the authority that I have as a commander I have directed the national mission force to begin some specific work. I’d rather not publicly go into that, using the authorities that I retain as a commander of this mission,” he said.

“Everything that as both director of NSA and what I see on the Cyber Command side leads me to believe that if we don’t change the dynamic here [Putin] is going to continue and 2016 won’t be viewed as something isolated. This is something that will be sustained over time.”

MEANWHILE, D.C. TROLLS RUSSIA: It wasn’t a cyber retaliation, but the city of D.C. played a little tit-for-tat with the Russians on Tuesday. The section of Wisconsin Avenue in front of the Russian Embassy in D.C. was officially renamed Boris Nemtsov Plaza after a critic of Putin who was gunned down in Moscow three years ago. The renaming was pushed by Sen. Marco Rubio and approved last month by the D.C. council. But it also drew praise from Sen. John McCain, who has lauded Nemtsov and sponsored legislation for the street name change.

“Today, 5,000 miles away from Moscow, Boris Nemtsov’s friends, family, and admirers unveiled the world’s first memorial to this great man,” McCain, who is at home in Arizona battling brain cancer, said in a released statement. “The greatest memorial to Boris will be a free Russia. And that Russia will proudly build memorials to Boris. In the meantime, America will gladly pay tribute to Boris Nemtsov — and to the millions of Russians who share his vision.”

As tensions increase between Washington and Moscow, the two countries have resurrected a Cold War-era type of trolling using street names. A Russian lawmaker proposed renaming an alley near the U.S. Embassy in Moscow as 1 North American Dead End, the New York Times reported. To which State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert responded, “If Russia should choose to rename the road in front of our embassy, that is certainly their choice. And I think that would, in fact, be a good example of our support of freedom of the press and freedom of expression.”

SPY BUDGET RELEASED, SORT OF: Trump sent Congress the largest-ever publicly disclosed request for spy agency funding, the administration revealed Tuesday. Details about the so-called “black budget” are slim, but Trump is requesting $59.9 billion for non-military intelligence agencies and $21.2 billion for military intelligence in fiscal 2019.

The civilian spy request is 3.8 percent higher than what Trump requested last year, and the military figure is 2.4 percent higher than last year’s request. The non-military request covers the 16-member U.S. intelligence community, including the CIA and the National Security Agency, and is collectively known as the National Intelligence Program.

NO NEGOTIATOR: Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s lead ambassador for talks with North Korea has decided to retire, to the dismay of a top Senate Democrat.

“[W]e have lost our lead negotiator on North Korean denuclearization efforts,” New Jersey Sen. Bob Menendez, the top Democrat on the Foreign Relations Committee, said Tuesday after Ambassador Joseph Yun announced his plan to retire. “Without the full weight of a robust diplomatic presence in the Asia-Pacific region, the United States will be left on the sidelines at a time when we can least afford it. The stakes are too high.”

Yun has served as the special representative for North Korea since 2016. In that role, he has helped to coordinate an international sanctions campaign while also maintaining quiet contact with the regime to secure the release of Americans imprisoned in the country.

NORTH KOREA-SYRIA CONNECTION: The State Department is denouncing the “depravity” of North Korea’s reported decision to sell chemical weapons supplies to Syria’s president Assad, who has used the banned weapons against his own people in a long-running civil war.

“This is something that the United States has had concerns about for quite some time, that North Korea, especially as North Korea becomes more desperate, that they look for different, creative, and horrific ways to try to make money to fund their criminal regime,” Nauert told reporters at Tuesday’s briefing. “And when I say ‘criminal regime,’ I mean their illegal nuclear and ballistic missile programs.”

That includes supplying chemical weapons paraphernalia to the Assad regime, according to an unreleased United Nations report that leaked earlier Tuesday. The report, which Nauert stipulated she has not seen herself, blends the two most pressing weapons-of-mass-destruction crises in the world. North Korea is racing to develop the ability to strike the United States with a nuclear weapon, while Assad’s use of chemical weapons has provoked one U.S. airstrike and divided the U.N. Security Council.

THE RUNDOWN

Defense News: Graham returns from Israel: We must ‘stop the Iran-Assad machine’

Air Force Times: ‘Jack of all trades’: Poignant clip from Nat Geo documentary highlights soldier killed in Niger ambush

Australian Broadcasting: USS Carl Vinson Aircraft Carrier Sails Through South China Sea In Defiance Of China

Business Insider: We climbed into an Apache helicopter’s cockpit and saw why it’s one of the most difficult aircraft to fly

Defense One: The US Will Spend $500M on Syrian Kurds This Year. For What?

Washington Post: Kushner’s overseas contacts raise concerns as foreign officials seek leverage

Breaking Defense: Air Force T-6s Return to Flight; OBOGS Monitoring Cited

Navy Times: Super Hornets and Growlers to get bigger fuel tanks

Task and Purpose: Trump Was Right: The Navy’s New Aircraft Catapult Is No Match For ‘Goddamned Steam’

The Hill: Armed Services chair: US should be ‘alert’ about Russian mercenaries in Syria

USNI News: Aegis Fleet Champion Vice Adm. James H. Doyle, Jr. Dies

New York Times: As Xi Jinping Extends Power, China Braces for a New Cold War

Stars and Stripes: How a soldier’s death in Afghanistan ended up in a German court, 4 years later

Calendar

WEDNESDAY | FEB. 28

7 a.m. AUSA Air & Missile Defense Hot Topic Symposium with Gen. John Hyten, Commander of U.S. Strategic Command. ausa.org

8 a.m. 7525 Colshire Dr. Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) Assurance. ndia.org

8 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Strategic National Security Space: FY19 Budget Forum with Reps. Mike Rogers, Jim Cooper, Doug Lamborn, and Dutch Ruppersberger; as well as William LaPlante, Senior Vice President at the MITRE Corporation. csis.org

9:15 a.m. 120 F St. NW. Symposium:  The New Cold War? The State of U.S. Russia Relations & Unconventional Threats to U.S. Security. georgetown.edu

11:30 a.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Dialogues on American Foreign Policy and World Affairs with Sen. Chris Coons and Walter Russell Mead. hudson.org

12 noon. 529 14th St. NW. Iran Uprising: Call for Regime Change, U.S. Policy Options. press.org

12 noon. Iran’s Formidable Forces in Iraq and Syria with remarks by Rep. Adam Kinzinger, and an expert conversation with Ambassador Ryan Crocker. defenddemocracy.org

2 p.m. 1700 Jefferson Davis Hwy. 29th Annual SO/LIC Symposium & Exhibition with Mark Mitchell, acting assistant defense secretary for special operations and low-intensity conflict. ndia.org

THURSDAY | MARCH 1

8 a.m. 2401 M St. NW. DARPA Director Steven Walker at the Defense Writers Group Breakfast.

9 a.m. 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Return of Global Russia with Sen. Mark Warner. carnegieendowment.org

9:30 a.m. Dirksen G-50. Nominations hearing for Lt. Gen. Paul Nakasone, To Be General And Director, National Security Agency / Chief, Central Security Service / Commander, United States Cyber Command; Brent Park, To Be Deputy Administrator For Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation, National Nuclear Security Administration; and Anne Marie White, To Be Assistant Secretary Of Energy For Environmental Management. armed-services.senate.gov

11 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Restoring Trust in Euro-Atlantic Relations: A Conversation with OSCE Secretary General Thomas Greminger. wilsoncenter.org

1 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. A conversation with Air Force Secretary Heather Wilson. heritage.org

1:30 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Assessing the 2018 Nuclear Posture Review with John Rood, undersecretary of Defense for Policy, and Rep. Mac Thornberry, chairman of the House Armed Services Committee. csis.org

2 p.m. 529 14th St. NW. State of the Coast Guard Address with Adm. Paul Zukunft. press.org

3:30 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW. Afghanistan: Assessing Progress and Prospects for Regional Connectivity with Mohammad Qayoumi, chief advisor on Infrastructure to President Ashraf Ghani. atlanticcouncil.org

FRIDAY | MARCH 2

8 a.m. 300 First St. SE. The Mitchell Space Breakfast Series with Maj. Gen. Joseph Guastella, Director of Integrated Air, Space, Cyberspace, and Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance Operations, at Air Force Space Command. mitchellaerospacepower.org

9 a.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Reuniting Ukraine through International Cooperation: Options in Donbas with Amb. Kurt Volker, U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations. hudson.org

MONDAY | MARCH 5

12 noon. Senate Visitor Center 201. Ending the North Korea standoff. defensepriorities.org

TUESDAY | MARCH 6

6 a.m. 920 Jones Branch Dr. Cyber-Enabled Emerging Technologies Symposium with Gen. Stephen “Seve” Wilson, Air Force Vice Chief of Staff, and Lt. Gen. Vincent Stewart, U.S. Cyber Command Deputy Commander.

8 a.m. 1315 K St. NW. McAleese/Credit Suisse 2019 “Defense Programs” Conference with Air Force Secretary Heather Wilson; Gen. Paul Selva, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff; Sen. Roger Wicker; Rep. Adam Smith; Gen. Glenn Walters, assistant Marine Corps commandant; and others. mcaleese.com

9:30 a.m. Hart 216. Hearing on worldwide threats with Dan Coats, the director of national intelligence, and Lt. Gen. Robert Ashley, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency. armed-services.senate.gov

10 a.m. Rayburn 2154. Subcommittee hearing examining the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. oversight.house.gov

1 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. A discussion with Robert Citino, author of “The Wehrmacht’s Last Stand.” csis.org

WEDNESDAY | MARCH 7

7:30 a.m. 1250 S Hayes St. Genus Machines: The Next Decade of Artificial Intelligence. defenseone.com

8 a.m. 1401 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Michael J. Zak Grand Strategy Lecture. cnas.org

9:30 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Climate Change and Conflict: New Research for Defense, Diplomacy, and Development. wilsoncenter.org

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QUOTE OF THE DAY
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“Moscow plays both arsonist and firefighter, fueling tensions among all parties in Syria — the Syrian regime, Iran, Turkey, the Syrian Democratic Forces, the United States and other coalition partners — then serving as an arbiter to resolve disputes, attempting to undermine and weaken each party’s bargaining positions.”
U.S. Central Commander Gen. Joseph Votel, in testimony before the House Armed Services Committee Tuesday.
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