Iraq finally has a prime minister. And a prospectively good one at that.
The former head of Iraq’s National Intelligence Service, Mustafa al Kadhimi is a longtime public servant who has the credibility to lead his nation out of its present crisis. Generally pro-American, al Kadhimi has an interest in an enduring strategic partnership between our two nations.
First and foremost, al Kadhimi’s premiership is good news for Iraq.
Filling a top leadership vacuum that has existed since November 2019, Iraq’s new prime minister offers a chance to form a new political alignment. Supported by political kingmaker Muqtada al Sadr, al Kadhimi was able to escape early Iranian resistance to his appointment. And while power-jockeying over al Kadhimi’s Cabinet positions is still underway, he has already won approval for a majority of his top officials.
The prime minister has significant challenges in front of him.
Iraqis are infuriated by a continuing failure to deliver basic government services and jobs. The Islamic State retains thousands of active supporters and is recovering influence over urban areas of Iraq’s Sunni triangle. Iran continues to act aggressively to push the U.S. military out of Iraq. Kurdish separatist movements feel emboldened to use this moment of dysfunction in Baghdad to advance their own agenda. And cronyism remains deeply embedded in Iraq’s post-war political order. To address these issues effectively, al Kadhimi will have to strike a careful balance between genuine reform and comforting various political egos. If he miscalculates, he’ll be pushed from power, and Iraq’s crisis will rumble into even greater suffering.
Still, there is very little doubt that Iran, sooner or later, will pose significant challenges to al Kadihimi’s rule.
Viewing Iraq as a theologically ordained and physically necessary outpost for its revolution, the Iranian hardliners will not allow al Kadhimi to deconstruct their patronage and militia networks. But without that deconstruction, Iran will always be able to hold a gun to Iraq’s head. The prime minister will likely attempt to mitigate these challenges by forging closer links with al Sadr, who has presented himself as a Shia nationalist outside of Iran’s control. Even if that requires some painful compromises, the United States should support al Kadhimi’s effort.
In the end, Iraq’s long-term stability and democratic sustainability are manifestly in America’s interest. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has shown encouraging recognition of that fact by his grant on Wednesday of a sanctions waiver to allow Iraq’s sourcing of electricity supplies from Iran. Had that waiver not been granted, al Kadhimi would have had to choose between even worse power shortages or damaging sanctions amid an existing condition of economic crisis.
The days ahead will be hard. But today, at least, a rare light of hope shines in Iraqi politics.
