Gubernatorial races in presidential years usually fall into the shadows of White House campaigns. Few people beyond a hardcore band of political junkies pay much attention to the statewide contests.
But that’s likely to change in the coming months, as the nation’s governors are on the political front lines responding to the coronavirus pandemic. With 11 governorships on the ballot this fall, whoever wins the offices are likely to face many of the same challenges as current state chief executives, including politically painful choices between reopening their states’ economies and implementing adequate safeguards to keep residents healthy.
State officials have taken a leading role in the government’s response to the health crisis, with some becoming breakout political stars. Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo of New York and Republican Gov. Larry Hogan of Maryland, have, at varying times, worked collaboratively with the Trump administration in gathering masks and other protective equipment — while also suffering the blunt end of President Trump’s Twitter attacks when their coronavirus tactics have diverged.
Governors’ races in 2020, like each presidential year, make up a relatively small slice of the political action nationally. At this point, the only potentially competitive races figure to be in Montana, where Republican Rep. Greg Gianforte is seeking the open office against Democratic Lt. Gov. Mike Cooney, and in the Utah GOP primary, where former Gov. Jon Huntsman, trying to regain the office he held from 2005 to 2009 before a pair of high-profile ambassadorships, faces a stiff Republican primary challenge from Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox.
Still, these races, and possibly others that emerge as more competitive closer to Election Day, are forcing candidates to detail their plans on personal protective equipment, COVID-19 testing mechanisms, and a range of other issues certain to linger well into next year and beyond.
“There are a wide range of issues here. Not only the issues with the coronavirus but the subsequent unemployment issues. I think that’s going to be the centerpiece of the election,” Jim Hodges, a former Democratic governor of South Carolina, told the Washington Examiner.
Jack Markell, a former Democratic governor of Delaware, said empathy would play a big role in the races.
“Does this candidate understand what I’m going through? And are they going to do everything to keep my family safe and to help us thrive economically on the other side of this?” Markell told the Washington Examiner about how voters could make their decisions.
To date, governors are earning relatively high marks during the COVID-19 crisis. Seventy-five percent of respondents in a recent Washington Post-University of Maryland poll had positive assessments of their governors. But that same poll showed opposition to reopening businesses, just as about half of states ease restrictions on shutdowns. Republican governors were the first to take steps in reopening their states, with some Democratic leaders following.
“The political risk is that the drumbeat begins to grow for a return to work,” Hodges said. “You’re seeing some of it now, but I think people by and large are still uncomfortable about how prepared we are for a safe return to work.”
David Turner, the communications director for the Democratic Governors Association, expects that leaders who wait longer to reopen their states won’t pay a political price. (The Republican Governors Association did not respond to an interview request.) “Poll after poll indicates that voters care much more about opening responsibly, safely, based on science and facts, and with the backing of medical experts,” Turner told the Washington Examiner.
A Harvard-NPR analysis released Thursday said only nine states were ready to reopen by May 15, based on how many tests they were conducting. The states, which are mostly larger and less populous, are Alaska, Hawaii, Montana, North Dakota, Oregon, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming.
About half of those states have gubernatorial elections in the fall.
Incumbents are seeking reelection in at least eight states — Washington, North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, West Virginia, North Carolina, Vermont, and New Hampshire. Montana Gov. Steve Bullock is term-limited, Utah Gov. Gary Herbert is retiring, and Delaware Gov. John Carney has yet to announce whether he will seek reelection.
Montana looks to be the most competitive governor’s race in 2020. Election forecasters have rated the state as a toss-up. Trump won the state by a 20-point margin in 2016, but Montanans have elected a Democratic governor in the last four elections.
David Parker, a political science professor at Montana State University, told the Washington Examiner that incumbents have the upper hand, not only because voters may resist change if they’re feeling unsafe but also because they will be given credit if voters value the response to the pandemic.
“The other thing that’s tricky here is a lot of the problems with the economy are going to be out of hand for the governors because it’s largely going to be dependent upon what the federal government does in terms of stimulus programs. If the federal government responds with stimulus programs and the governors are then seen handing out all these resources, that can only further elevate the governor and potentially the governor’s party,” Parker said.
“So it’s not like there’s going to be a clear Republican effect or clear Democratic advantage,” Parker said. “It’s going to vary state to state, depending on who the incumbent administration is, and if there is someone associated with the incumbent administration on the ballot.”
