WELCOME BACK BIDEN: Today and tomorrow, NATO foreign ministers, including U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, are holding virtual meetings to discuss the future of the NATO-led mission in Afghanistan, countering Russia’s nuclear and conventional threat, and restructuring NATO strategy to engage China on issues such as arms control and climate change.
But what was clear from Jens Stoltenberg’s opening news conference is that the Norwegian secretary-general is anxious to welcome back an old friend. “I had an excellent phone call with President-elect Joe Biden. We have known each other for a long time and his background as vice president, as a former chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, gives him a lot of experience when it comes to security issues in general and NATO in particular,” he told reporters Monday.
Stoltenberg says he invited Biden to what he hopes will be an in-person NATO summit in Brussels sometime early next year, coronavirus permitting, because, he said, “That’s the best way for all allies’ heads of state and government to meet, to sit down.”
WAITING FOR BIDEN’S INPUT: Stoltenberg said while pressing issues are being discussed this week, the decisions will be made by the Biden administration, including whether to extend the New START nuclear arms treaty with the Russians and whether to withdraw all NATO and partner nation troops from Afghanistan.
“The main issue is that in the U.S.-Taliban agreement it is stated that all international troops, also NATO troops, should be out of Afghanistan by 1 May,” said Stoltenberg, referring to the Feb. 29 agreement that was made by President Trump, with little input from the NATO and European allies who currently have more troops in Afghanistan than the U.S. “We assess that the Taliban is not living up to their part of the agreement, not delivering on their promises,” Stoltenberg said.
“The level of violence is far too high. And therefore, we call on Taliban to reduce the level of violence, to engage in good faith in the peace negotiations in Doha, and to live up to their commitments, which includes also to break all ties with international terrorists, to break all ties with al Qaeda.”
‘A DIFFICULT DILEMMA’: Stoltenberg seemed to be channeling Hamlet’s famous “To be or not to be” soliloquy in discussing what he repeatedly called the “difficult dilemma” posed by the sudden order by Trump to immediately withdraw half of U.S. troops in Afghanistan, leaving only 2,500 as part of the NATO force that currently numbers 11,000.
“Whether to leave, and risk that Afghanistan becomes once again a safe haven for international terrorists. Or stay, and risk a longer mission, with renewed violence,” he intoned. “The price of staying is, of course, continued military involvement in Afghanistan, a price in treasure and in blood. The price of leaving is the risk of jeopardizing the gains we have made. And I think it’s better to be honest that there is no easy solution to that dilemma.”
Stoltenberg says he expects a decision on the future of the Afghanistan mission in February at a meeting of NATO defense ministers.
NATO NEEDS US TO STAY: “We have invested so much in training the Afghans. We have enabled Afghans to protect their own country. And I strongly believe that the best way to stabilize Afghanistan is to train, assist, advise the Afghan security forces so they can be in charge, be responsible for their own country,” Stoltenberg said, suggesting even if most U.S. troops leave the NATO mission could continue, so long as the U.S. continued to supply key support.
“The U.S. will still be committed to and still be able to deliver key enablers for the rest of the NATO training mission, meaning, for instance, air transport, medical support, intelligence, and so on,” he said. “So with continued U.S. enablers, with the continued commitment from European Allies, we will continue our training mission in Afghanistan.”
KUDOS TO GERMANY: Now that Trump is a lame-duck president, Stoltenberg was more forthcoming in heaping praise on Germany, Trump’s least favorite NATO ally for its failure to meet the 2% of GDP defense spending goal that is not required until 2024.
“Germany has been there for many, many years, one of the largest force contributors to our mission in Afghanistan. And Germany does exactly what NATO is aiming at, and that is to help and train the Afghans,” he said. “And therefore, Germany, of course, will be part of this consultation. And I will consult closely with Berlin as we move forward.”
POSTSCRIPT: U.S. Ambassador to NATO Kay Bailey Hutchison, in a session with reporters posted online by the State Department’s U.S.-European Media Hub, called Biden the “president-elect” and repeatedly referred to his “incoming administration.”
Good Tuesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Victor I. Nava. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.
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HAPPENING TODAY: President-elect Joe Biden and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris to introduce their nominees and appointees to key economic posts: Janet Yellen for Treasury secretary; Neera Tanden for director of the Office of Management and Budget; Wally Adeyemo for deputy Treasury secretary; Cecilia Rouse for chair of the Council of Economic Advisers; Jared Bernstein for Council of Economic Advisers member; and Heather Boushey for Council of Economic Advisers member. Livestream at https://twitter.com/transition46 or https://www.facebook.com/Transition46/
ALSO TODAY: Secretary of State Mike Pompeo delivers remarks at 7 a.m. at the U.S.-Bahrain Strategic Dialogue. Livestream at https://www.dvidshub.net/webcast/25302
WAS IT LEGAL? The assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh in Tehran last week has prompted a debate about the ethics and legality of targeting civilian scientists in efforts to deny Iran the capability of developing a nuclear bomb.
Orde Kittrie, a former State Department lawyer who worked on nuclear issues, argues in a 16-tweet-long Twitter thread that under the DOD Law of War Manual, issued 2016 under President Barack Obama, “civilian scientists occupying key positions in a weapons program regarded as vital to a nation’s national security or war aims [are] liable to legitimate attack.”
Kittrie, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, noted that the manual concludes that “more than 900 of the World War II Project Manhattan personnel were civilians, and their participation in the U.S. atomic weapons program was of such importance as to have made them liable to legitimate attack.”
“Fakhrizadeh more than fit the description,” Kittrie tweets, “He was not just an Iran nuclear weapons scientist but the program’s chief, and per BBC also ‘head of the ministry of defence’s research and innovation organisation,’” as well as “also Brigadier General of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (part of Iran armed forces), which has in its entirety been designated by US as terrorist org.”
NDAA VETO THREAT: President Trump’s threat to veto the National Defense Authorization Act over a bipartisan provision requiring the renaming of Army bases honoring Confederate military leaders is drawing the ire of Democrats who are insisting the language remain in the bill when it’s sent to the White House for Trump’s signature.
“His objections to the renaming of Confederate bases is frankly absurd and downright dangerous,” said Virginia Democratic Sen. Mark Warner. “The defense bill is critical to U.S. national security, authorizing millions for military construction projects, shipbuilding, technology, and innovation investments, a pay raise for our service members and many other critical defense priorities.”
Republican Oklahoma Sen. Jim Inhofe, chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, promised Trump he would get the language stripped from the final bill in conference committee despite the bipartisan support for the provision in both chambers of Congress.
House Democrats are pressing for conferees to adopt the Senate language, which would give the Army three years to make the change.
BLOCKING THE SALE OF F-35s TO UAE: Meanwhile, there remains bipartisan opposition to the Trump administration plan to sell a $23 billion arms package to the United Arab Emirates that includes Reaper drones, 50 F-35 joint strike fighter jets, and air-to-air missiles.
Democratic Sens. Bob Menendez of New Jersey and Chris Murphy of Connecticut, along with Kentucky Republican Rand Paul, are seeking to block the sale in the waning days of the lame-duck session of Congress.
After notification of a potential sale, there is a 30-day period during which Congress can block the sales with resolutions that require only a simple majority to pass.
Yesterday, former Sen. Joseph Lieberman, a strong supporter of Israel and member of the group United Against a Nuclear Iran, endorsed the sale, arguing it will help nurture “powerful alliances are developing in the region through the Abraham Accords,” which normalized relations between Israel and the UAE and Bahrain.
“The U.S. government has made a bipartisan commitment to protect Israel’s qualitative military edge while also providing technology to important partners like the Emirates that are actively contributing to the expansion of peace in the region,” Lieberman said in urging his former colleagues in Congress to support the sale.
A TOTAL LOSS: After estimating repairs would cost $3 billion and take up to seven years, the Navy has totaled the USS Bonhomme Richard, the amphibious assault ship devastated by fire in July.
“We did not come to this decision lightly,” said Navy Secretary Kenneth Braithwaite in a statement. “Following an extensive material assessment in which various courses of action were considered and evaluated, we came to the conclusion that it is not fiscally responsible to restore her.”
The cause of the fire, which raged for five days, occurred while the ship was pierside in San Diego for repairs and remains under investigation.
KIM’S COVID INOCULATION: North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has been vaccinated for COVID-19, along with members of his family and inner circle, reports Harry Kazianis, a Korea expert at the Center for the National Interest.
Kim received a vaccine candidate supplied by the Chinese government within the last two to three weeks, Kazianis reported on the website 19FortyFive, citing two Japanese intelligence sources.
“While the leadership of North Korea may have found a way to try and protect themselves from the dangers of Coronavirus, many parts of the country are being impacted dramatically, compounding ongoing economic challenges brought on through international sanctions, decades-long food insecurity issues, and the landing of three typhoons several months ago,” writes Kazianis, who says North Korea’s “antiquated and poorly resourced healthcare system that is in no shape to tackle a pandemic.”
RUSSIA’S WEEK OF MISSILE TESTS: The Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance, which keeps an eye on these things, reports last week that Russia was particularly active in testing new weapons.
“On Monday, it was reported that the new Russian Project 885M Kazan nuclear submarine had successfully hit a target 1,000 kilometers away using a Kalibr cruise missile. The test took place at the Chizha proving ground and was part of the final stage of state trials,” the group said on its website, noting a report in the Moscow Times.
“On Wednesday, it was reported that the Russian Pacific Fleet’s latest corvette conducted a launch of an Uran cruise missile against a naval target. This was the first launch of Uran cruise missile by the Aldar Tsydenzhapov corvette,” it said, citing the EurAsian Times.
“On Thursday, it was announced that the Russian military test-launched its Tsirkon hypersonic cruise missile. This was at least the third test of the Tsirkon missile this year,” per a Tass report.
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: NATO chief warns: ‘China is investing massively in new weapons’
Washington Examiner: Biden takes warm call from NATO secretary-general in contrast to Trump relationship
Washington Examiner: Space Force can ramp up protection of space architecture as launches hit light speed
Washington Examiner: Navy to decommission fire-damaged Bonhomme Richard
Washington Examiner: Europe to stay tough on Huawei, despite Trump loss and China pressure
Reuters: NATO Must Focus More On Challenge Of Rising China, Report To Say
USNI News: White House Plans to Nominate PACFLEET CO to Lead U.S. Joint Force in Pacific
Wall Street Journal: U.S. Blacklists Chinese Defense Firm For Sales To Venezuela
New York Times: ‘Trump Is Better’: In Asia, Pro-Democracy Forces Worry About Biden
CNN: Pentagon Shake-Up Continues As Another Top Official Departs
Defense News: After Trump, Congress Could Chafe At Retired Officers Leading The Pentagon
Washington Post: The debate now is not whether Israel killed Iran’s top nuclear scientist, but why
Military Times: Four Troops Have Died Of Coronavirus Complications In As Many Weeks
Reuters: U.S. Congress races to avoid December government shutdown amid pandemic
AP: Iran says Israel killed military nuclear scientist remotely
AP: Iran newspaper: Strike Haifa if Israel killed scientist
Foreign Policy: Pentagon Says UAE Funding Russia’s Shadowy Mercenaries In Libya
Defense News: Why Is Egypt Intensifying Its Military Drills?
USNI News: Carrier USS Nimitz Back in Middle East After Exercising in Indian Ocean
Air Force Magazine: Air Force to Lead US, Australia Push for Hypersonic Technology
Defense Daily: U.S., Australia To Partner On Air-Breathing Hypersonic Weapon Development
Defense News: Germany Joins Nascent European Push To Shoot Down Hypersonic Missiles
Breaking Defense: eBullet Brings Richer Realism To Army Training; No More Laser Tag
Marine Corps Times: Blood Sisters And Sisters In Arms: 2 Sets Of Sisters Graduate Marine Boot Camp Together
AP: Charging the ‘Beatles’: Inside the case against IS militants
Calendar
TUESDAY | DECEMBER 1
All Day — NATO foreign ministers meet for two days via secure teleconference. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg will brief reporters both days online. https://www.nato.int
8 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies webcast: “The Outlook for North Korea’s Economy Post-Pandemic,” with former CIA Senior Analyst Sue Mi Terry, senior fellow at CSIS. https://www.csis.org/events/online-event
9 a.m. — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association virtual 2020 TechNet Cyber forum, with Vice Adm. Nancy Norton, director of the Defense Information Systems Agency; Principal Deputy Defense CIO John Sherman; and Katie Arrington, chief information security officer in the Office of the Defense Undersecretary for Acquisition and Sustainment. https://events.afcea.org
9 a.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion: “U.S.-China Relations Under Biden: A Lookahead,” with Paul Haenle, chair at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center and former director for China, Taiwan and Mongolia Affairs at the National Security Council; Xie Tao, political science professor and dean of the Beijing Foreign Studies University’s School of International Relations and Diplomacy; and Evan Feigenbaum, CEIP vice president for studies. https://carnegieendowment.org
9 a.m. — United States Institute of Peace virtual discussion: “Contested Waters: Flashpoints for Conflict in Asia,” with David Michel, senior research fellow at the Center for Climate and Security; Abdul Aijaz, doctoral candidate at Indiana University Bloomington; Amit Ranjan, research fellow at the National University of Singapore Institute of South Asian Studies; Z Nang Raw, policy and strategy director at the Nyein Foundation; Jumaina Siddiqui, USIP senior program officer for South Asia; and Tegan Blaine, USIP senior adviser on environment and conflict. https://www.usip.org/events
12 p.m. — Aspen Cyber Summit will take place virtually over three days, Dec. 1-3., featuring daily keynote conversations as well as short talks and panel discussions. https://www.aspencybersummit.org
12:30 p.m. — Arms Control Association annual meeting with the theme “Arms Control, Nonproliferation and Disarmament into the Next Decade, with Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, D-N.Y.; and U.N. Undersecretary for Disarmament Affairs Izumi Nakamitsu. https://www.armscontrol.org
1 p.m. — U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s 2nd Annual Space Summit with Air Force Secretary Barbara Bennett and Chief of Space Operations Gen. Jay Raymond. https://www.uschamber.com/event/space-summit-launch-global-growth
1:30 p.m. Pentagon Auditorium — Defense Department holds an assistant secretaries of defense town hall briefing. Livestream at https://www.dvidshub.net/webcast/25290
2 p.m. — Intelligence National Security Alliance virtual discussion: “Future of the National Security Cyber Workforce,” with former National Security Agency Deputy Director Chris Inglis, commissioner of the Cyberspace Solarium Commission; Air Force Brig. Gen. David Gaedecke, vice commander of Air Forces Cyber; Tonya Ugoretz, deputy assistant director for FBI Cyber Readiness, Outreach and Intelligence Branch; Teresa Shea, vice president of cyber offense and defense experts at Raytheon Intelligence and Space; and retired Air Force Maj. Gen. Jim Keffer, cyber director at Lockheed Martin Government Affairs. https://www.insaonline.org/event
3 p.m. — Atlantic Council webinar on a new report, “The Five Revolutions: Examining Defense Innovation in the Indo-Pacific Region,” with former Joint Chiefs Vice Chairman Gen. James Cartwright, board director of the Atlantic Council; Alan Pellegrini, CEO of Thales North America; Jon Grevatt, associate director of Janes; Rukmani Gupta, senior military capabilities analyst at Janes; and Tate Nurkin, nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event
4 p.m. — Air Force Association “Airmen in the Fight,” webinar with Lt. Gen. Kevin Schneider, commander of U.S. Forces Japan and Fifth Air Force, as part of the Airmen in the Fight series. https://www.afa.org/events/airmen-in-the-fight
WEDNESDAY | DECEMBER 2
8 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual forum with current and former U.S. and South Korean officials on “issues facing the bilateral security alliance and economic partnership,” with Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Korea and Japan Marc Knapper. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event
9:15 a.m. G50, Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Subcommittee on Readiness and Management Support hearing on Navy and Marine Corps readiness, with Navy Secretary Kenneth Braithwaite, Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Michael Gilday, and Marine Corps Commandant Gen. David Berger. https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings
10:30 a.m. — George Washington University Project for Media and National Security Defense Writers Group conversation with Adm. Craig Faller, commander, U.S. Southern Command. https://nationalsecuritymedia.gwu.edu
11 a.m. — Brookings Institution webcast: “A conversation with Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley.” https://www.brookings.edu/events
12 p.m. — Association of the U.S. Army “Noon Report” webinar on Army National Guard operations, with Command Sgt. Maj. John Sampa, the senior enlisted leader of the Army National Guard. https://info.ausa.org
THURSDAY | DECEMBER 3
9:30 a.m. — Carnegie Europe, in partnership with NATO, hosts the public launch of the NATO 2030 Expert Group’s Report: “United for a New Era,” with keynote address by NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg. Livestream at https://carnegieeurope.eu
12 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: “Competing with Great Powers at the ‘Speed of Relevance,” with Ellen Lord, defense undersecretary for acquisition and sustainment. https://www.hudson.org/events
2 p.m. — R Street Institute and National Taxpayers Union webinar “Pentagon Purse Strings Episode 1: What is a Contingency? Exploring the OCO Account and Reform in the 117th Congress,” with Rep. Ralph Norman, R-S.C.; Andrew Lautz, National Taxpayers Union, Jonathan Bydlak, R Street Institute; and Wendy Jordan, senior policy analyst, Taxpayers for Common Sense. https://www.rstreet.org/event
1 p.m. Rayburn 2118 & Cisco Webex — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Readiness hearing: “Review of the Findings and Recommendations of the National Commission on Military Aviation Safety,” with retired Army Gen. Richard Cody, chairman, National Commission on Military Aviation Safety; and Richard Healing, vice chairman, National Commission on Military Aviation Safety. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
2 p.m. — Brookings Institution webcast: “The Future of U.S. Alliances in the Indo-Pacific,” with Sen. Tammy Duckworth, D-Ill. https://www.brookings.edu/events
5 p.m. — National Security Institute at George Mason University “NatSec Nightcap” conversation: “Advancing Diplomacy Aboard, a Deep Dive into U.S. Foreign Policy,” with Elliott Abrams, special representative for Iran and Venezuela; and Jamil Jaffer, founder and executive director, National Security Institute. https://nationalsecurity.gmu.edu/natsec-nightcap
FRIDAY | DECEMBER 4
9 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies webcast with former CIA Director John Brennan on the top national security priorities for a new Biden administration. https://www.csis.org/events/online
10 a.m. — Association of the U.S. Army “Thought Leaders” webinar with former national security adviser retired Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster to discuss his book, Battlegrounds: The Fight to Defend the Free World. https://www.bigmarker.com/ausaorg
1:30 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies webcast: “Reflecting America’s Diversity in its Military,” with Army Maj. Gen. Tammy Smith; retired Marine Corps Maj. Gen. Charles Bolden, former NASA administrator; and Alice Hunt Friend, senior fellow in the CSIS International Security Program. https://www.csis.org/events
3 p.m. — Woodrow Wilson Center Kissinger Institute on China and the United States virtual book discussion on “Where Great Powers Meet,” focusing on the rivalry between the United States and China in Southeast Asia, with author David Shambaugh, director of the George Washington University China Policy Program; Robert Daly, director of the Kissinger Institute; and J. Stapleton Roy, director emeritus of the Kissinger Institute. https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event
3 p.m. — Hudson Institute webinar: “Diplomacy, Deterrence, and Disruption: Navigating North Korea Policy in 2021,” with Jihwan Hwang, associate professor at the University of Seoul; Andrea Mihailescu, fellow in residence at Pepperdine University; Won Gon Park, professor of international studies at Handong Global University; Brad Roberts, director of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s Center for Global Security Research; and Patrick Cronin, senior fellow at Hudson. https://www.hudson.org/events
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“I’m often asked, ‘What keeps you up at night?’ … It’s no foreign threats that worry me … The one thing we can’t handle is if we self-destruct … that’s the thing that worries me the most … what we might do to ourselves.”
Outgoing Texas Rep. Mac Thornberry, ranking Republican on the House Armed Services Committee, in an interview with Fox News.
