THE EBB AND FLOW OF WAR: The front lines in Ukraine haven’t moved much in recent weeks, but the momentum remains with Ukrainian forces who have successfully targeted Russian troop concentrations, forcing their commanders to scramble to reassess tactics.
The British Defense Ministry reported that after Ukrainian drones hit the Engels air base inside Russia last month and damaged some aircraft, the Russian air force has been forced to move its Tu-95 Bear heavy bombers and Tu-22 Backfire medium bombers to a base in the far east more than 3,700 miles from Ukraine.
“The LRA [Long-Range Aviation] will still be able to fire air launched cruise missiles into Ukraine because the weapons have a 5000km [3,100 mile] range, in addition to the flight range of the bombers,” the ministry said in a tweet. “However, operating from dispersal locations will add additional maintenance stress and will further deplete the limited flying hours available on these aging aircraft.”
At the same time, Ukrainian defenders have become increasingly proficient at shooting down the slow-flying, noisy, Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones that Russia has been sending in waves to attack critical energy infrastructure.
Ukraine claims a 100% kill rate for the first three days of the new year, shooting down 45, 39, and 27 between Dec. 31 and Jan. 1 using the U.S.-supplied NASAMS air defense system. And unseasonably warm weather is also easing the burden on Ukraine’s degraded electrical grid.
WHITE HOUSE WARNS ‘INTENSE’ DONBAS FIGHTING WILL CONTINUE IN COMING WEEKS
TANKS, MORE TANKS: U.S. allies are preparing to fulfill one of Ukraine’s long-standing requests for more tanks and armored vehicles needed for the kind of large counteroffensive Ukraine has planned for the spring.
“Had a long and detailed conversation with President of France @EmmanuelMacron on the current situation,” tweeted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. “Thanked for the decision to transfer light tanks and Bastion APCs to Ukraine, as well as for intensifying work with partners in the same direction.”
The news that France will provide the wheeled, light tank comes as President Joe Biden yesterday confirmed reports the U.S. is considering sending Bradley Fighting Vehicles, light, nimble, tracked vehicles that military experts say are ideally suited to the next phase of the war. Asked in Kentucky by a reporter if Bradleys were “on the table,” Biden replied simply, “Yes.”
“The Brad (or IFV/CFV) is NOT a tank, but it can be a tank killer … and a troop carrier,” tweeted retired Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling, a former Bradley commander in the 1991 Persian Gulf War. “On the Turret: 2 TOW anti-tank missiles, 25mm Bushmaster chain gun, 7.62 co-axial machinegun, all effective at long ranges.”
“While a tracked vehicle, it doesn’t have a lot of complicated engine/turret issues. Good gas mileage, max speed of about 40mph cross country, low maintenance, solid protection & firepower,” he said. “The infantry variants has a lot of room in the back for troops.” You can read his Twitter thread here.
FRANCE OFFERS ‘HIGH-PERFORMANCE’ TANKS TO UKRAINE, IN CONTRAST WITH BIDEN AND GERMANY
DEADLY STRIKES: The recriminations and finger-pointing continue in Moscow over the Jan. 4 Ukrainian HIMARS strike on the makeshift Russian barracks in Makiivka in the Donbas, where Russia says 89 troops, including a deputy regimental commander, were killed, but U.S. sources say the actual death toll was between 200 and 500 due to the fact ammunition was stored in the same building.
Russia is blaming the “presence and mass use by personnel, contrary to prohibitions, of mobile telephones within range of enemy weapons systems” for giving away troops’ locations to Ukrainian eavesdroppers.
The explanation prompted paroxysms of protests from the “Russian milblogger information space” blaming “incompetence of Russian military command,” according to the latest assessment from the Institute for the Study of War.
“Several milbloggers noted that the use of cell phones on the frontline in the 21st century is inevitable and that efforts to crack down on their use are futile,” the ISW reported. “One milblogger emphasized that it is ‘extremely wrong to make mobile phones guilty for strikes’ and concluded that ‘it is not cell phones and their owners that are to blame, but the negligence of the commanders.’”
But the Makiivka attack is only one of several deadly attacks Ukraine has carried out on Russian troops, according to the New York Times. “Kyiv says its forces have killed or wounded more than 1,000 Russian soldiers in a series of pinpoint attacks,” the newspaper reported. “Social media posts, reports from local residents and Russians who blog about military affairs offered partial confirmation of the other strikes claimed by Ukraine, but not corroboration of the casualty counts.”
RUSSIA RAISES DEATH TOLL OF MASSIVE UKRAINIAN STRIKE, BLAMES ILLICIT CELLPHONE USAGE BY SOLDIERS
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HAPPENING TODAY: President Joe Biden will deliver remarks from the White House at 11:15 this morning on “border security and enforcement” as he prepares to visit the southern border for the first time during his tenure as president.
Biden confirmed that he will stop in El Paso, Texas, on his way to next week’s North American Leaders’ Summit in Mexico City. “That’s my intention. We’re working out the details now,” Biden told reporters as he boarded Air Force One en route to Kentucky yesterday.
Republicans have hammered Biden for two years, accusing him of ignoring the crisis at the border as it has grown worse during his time in office.
“I am glad to hear you are thinking about making a visit to the U.S.-Mexico border — your first as President,” wrote Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) in a statement, offering to show Biden around. “I would like to formally invite you to join Senator Hyde-Smith, Senator Britt, and me in Del Rio, Texas this Monday, January 9. We will be assessing the damage caused by this administration’s immigration policies and meeting with some of the victims of those policies.”
“For the sake of the women, children, and American families suffering from a lack of leadership, we urge you to join us,” she concluded.
DAN CRENSHAW PITCHES SOLUTION TO BORDER CRISIS TO UNITE DEMOCRATS AND REPUBLICANS
ALSO TODAY: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin will be at the White House this afternoon as the president has a Cabinet meeting scheduled for 3 p.m.
POLAND GETS MORE ABRAMS: In return for donating 240 Soviet-era tanks to Ukraine, Poland will get more than 100 used U.S. M1A1 Abrams tanks in a $1.4 billion deal signed yesterday.
The Polish Defense Ministry tweeted that Defense Minister Mariusz Błaszczak signed the deal at a Polish military base near Warsaw. “The agreement foresees the delivery of 116 M1A1 Abrams tanks with related equipment and logistics starting this year.”
Last summer, Poland sent more than 300 Soviet-era tanks and armored personnel carriers to Ukraine. The NATO ally is the first to get the U.S. main battle tank.
“Poland has been an incredible ally and friend and partner in this entire effort in terms of the support that they have been providing not only to the Ukrainians and not only from a security assistance perspective, but the support that they provide to the United States as a NATO ally and our efforts to shore up the eastern flank of NATO,” said National Security Council spokesman John Kirby during a White House conference call.
NEVER HAPPENED: It’s a great anecdote, except Kash Patel insists it’s apocryphal. In an April 15 testimony to the Jan. 6 committee, former White House communications director Alyssa Farah Griffin relayed an unconfirmed account that “allegedly, for about 14 minutes, Kash was actually the CIA director.”
“And don’t need to tell this to Congressman Schiff, but that man has no business being anywhere near intelligence or anything else,” she added.
But Patel tells Washington Examiner defense reporter Mike Brest it’s a myth and that he was never installed in any capacity at the CIA.
“It’s amazing that a communications director would have any insight [into] what’s going on in the national security apparatus of the United States, especially when she was in zero meetings involving any of these discussions,” Patel told Brest. “What I can say and will say is that, you know … with President Trump, there was always conversations about moving people in personnel around to execute national security priorities. And there was a time when they considered me to be the deputy director of the CIA. And maybe that’s what she’s referring to.”
TRUMP LOYALIST KASH PATEL DENIES JAN. 6 TESTIMONY HE WAS BRIEFLY INSTALLED AS CIA DIRECTOR
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Sen. Blackburn invites Biden to border to assess ‘damage caused’ by administration
Washington Examiner: South Korea to develop ‘stealthy drones’ and ‘drone killer system’
Washington Examiner: Iranian drones used by Russia in Ukraine contain parts from US companies: Report
Washington Examiner: France offers ‘high-performance’ tanks to Ukraine, in contrast with Biden and Germany
Washington Examiner: Russia raises death toll of massive Ukrainian strike, blames illicit cellphone usage by soldiers
Washington Examiner: US baffled by ‘amount of Russian blood’ Wagner Group has spilled to capture Bakhmut
Washington Examiner: White House warns ‘intense’ Donbas fighting will continue in coming weeks
Washington Examiner: Part of Taiwan advanced missile system sent to China for repairs
Washington Examiner: Trump loyalist Kash Patel denies Jan. 6 testimony he was briefly installed as CIA director
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Treat China’s fishing flotillas for the pirates they are
Reuters: Ukraine Military Says It Killed 800 Russian Soldiers In Past Day
New York Times: For Russian Troops, Cellphone Use Is a Persistent, Lethal Danger
Defense One: Senior White House Official: Wagner Mercenaries More ‘Aggressive’ Than Russian Military
Wall Street Journal: Ukraine Sees Signs Moscow Is Shifting From Bakhmut
AP: Between battles, Ukraine’s soldiers have a place to recover
AP: Russia’s hypersonic missile-armed ship to patrol global seas
USNI News: Russian Navy Commissions Ballistic Missile Sub, 2 Surface Warships
New York Times: Is Kim Jong-un’s ‘Most Beloved Daughter’ North Korea’s Next Leader?
Reuters: South Korea’s Yoon Warns Of Ending Military Pact After North Drone Intrusion
Bloomberg: Congress Orders Pentagon to Review ‘Controlled Unclassified’ Label
Defense One: Pentagon Scrambles to Prep New COVID Rules as Vaccine Mandate Nears End
Times of Israel: U.S. Defense Chief Austin Warns Gallant Not To ‘Undermine’ West Bank Stability
Washington Times: Pentagon To Bolster Guam’s Defenses With New Missiles, Radars
AP: Australia To Buy U.S.-Made HIMARS In Boost To Defense Systems
Air & Space Forces Magazine: All F-35, F135 Engine Deliveries Suspended Pending Crash Investigation
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Boeing Works to Solve KC-46 Deficiencies, One by One
Breaking Defense: Inside the Special F-16 the Air Force Is Using to Test Out AI
Task & Purpose: This Unusual New Air Force Tactic Is Likely Raising Alarms in China, Expert Says
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Pentagon Rolls Out New Parental Leave Policy—Air Force Details Still to Come
Air & Space Forces Magazine: 4 More Airmen Get Distinguished Flying Crosses for Afghanistan Mission
AP: Daughter of former US intelligence director guilty of murder
Calendar
THURSDAY | JANUARY 5
3 a.m. — NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg speech outlining “NATO’s role in turbulent times and security as a shared responsibility” to the annual conference of the Confederation of Norwegian Enterprise. Transcript available on NATO website: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news
9 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “Unanswered Questions about North Korean Leadership,” with Bruce Klingner, senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation’s Asian Studies Center; Soo Kim, policy analyst at the RAND Corporation; John Delury, professor of Chinese studies at Yonsei University’s Graduate School of International Studies; and Sue Mi Terry, director of the CSIS’s Asia Program https://www.csis.org/events/unanswered-questions-about-north-korean-leadership
FRIDAY | JANUARY 6
12 p.m. Union Square, 3rd St. SW — Progressive Democrats of America, the Not Above the Law Coalition, and the Declaration for American Democracy hold an “Our Freedoms, Our Vote” Jan. 6 rally “to remember what happened two years ago,” with Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD); Martin Luther King III, activist and son of the late Martin Luther King Jr.; and Andrea Waters King, president of the Drum Major Institute and wife of Martin Luther King III https://www.mobilize.us/jan6hearings/event/545269/
MONDAY | JANUARY 8
2 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies report launch: “The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan,” with co-authors Mark Cancian, Matthew Cancian, and Eric Heginbotham, along with a panel discussion with retired Air Force Lt. Gen. David Deptula; Becca Wasser, senior fellow, Center for a New American Security; and William Murray, professor, U.S. Naval War College https://www.csis.org/events/report-launch
FRIDAY | JANUARY 13
TBA — President Joe Biden hosts Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida for meetings at the White House https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“This is what sends a clear signal to all our other partners: There is no rational reason why Ukraine has not yet been supplied with Western-type tanks.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky thanking France for committing to send AMX-10 RC light tanks to aid its war effort
