Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government is on the brink of collapse following the dramatic resignation of its defense minister, who was enraged about a cease-fire after Palestinian terrorists led by Hamas launched 400 missiles into southern Israel.
In resigning his post, Avigdor Liberman, a rival to Netanyahu’s right, branded the cease-fire in Gaza a “capitulation to terror.”
Hamas celebrated the news, calling the resignation an “admission of defeat.”
Israel’s parliament, known as the Knesset, has 120 seats and a majority is required to form or maintain a government. The defection of Liberman and his five seats means that Netanyahu will now be clinging to a razor-thin 61-seat coalition and any new defections can bring down the government and force new elections.
Other parties are already starting to use their leverage. Another party to Netanyahu’s right has said they would leave the governing coalition if leader Naftali Bennet is not made defense minister. Without their seats, Netanyahu would have to stand for re-election well before the November 2019 deadline.
Even if Netanyahu agrees to Bennet’s demands, however, he’ll find himself in a precarious position, because any one coalition partner can bring down the government. A collapse is even more likely given the heated debate over a new conscription law for ultra-Orthodox Jews. Many ultra-Orthodox communities avoid mandatory military or civil service, increasingly enraging other religious and secular Jews, who shoulder the burden of national defense.
Despite his hardline reputation internationally, Netanyahu has in reality shown himself to be relatively risk averse, causing mounting frustration and anger among his right flank. In this case, he made the calculation that the short-term political hit he could suffer from a quick cease-fire would be less risky than another protracted campaign in Gaza. His gamble is now being put to the test.
Though Netanyahu has been a polarizing figure in Israel, he has been in office nearly 10 years, as no strong rival has emerged to defeat him. A poll taken last month, before the Gaza rocket attacks and cease-fire, suggested that Netanyahu would win re-election in a landslide.
That said, a lot can change quickly in Israeli politics. Netanyahu, who has made his share of enemies, will now have to deal with the fallout from Gaza on top of the divisive issue of ultra-Orthodox conscription, as he navigates domestic political scandals. So it’s far from a slam dunk that he’ll survive, though it’s also hard to bet against his political resilience.
