LOOKING FOR AN OFF-RAMP? It was an unusual scene broadcast to the West on Monday. Russian President Vladimir Putin seated at the head of a long conference table, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov seated at the far opposite end, briefing his boss.
It was a meeting that might normally have been held behind closed doors, but Putin obviously wanted to present a picture of a Russia that has not yet given up on diplomacy, even as his invasion force encircling Ukraine on three sides is locked and loaded.
The short session began with Lavrov complaining about “unsatisfactory responses” he’s received from NATO foreign ministers and blaming the U.S. for running the show, but then he shifts to what he calls “very specific responses” to other matters such as moving military exercises farther from Russia and establishing buffer zones for ships and aircraft.
“The other side is demonstrating a willingness to enter into serious negotiations,” Lavrov says. “I would say we can consider further progress in these areas,” according to an English language transcript posted by the Kremlin.
Then Putin asks Lavrov the key question: “Do you think we still have a chance of coming to terms with our partners on the key problems of our concern, or is this simply an attempt to drag us into an endless negotiating process with no logical conclusion?”
“I must say that there is always a chance,” Lavrov replies. “We are ready to listen to serious counterarguments. That said, I think our opportunities are far from exhausted. Of course, they should not be endless, but I think we should still continue to pursue and build on them at this point.”
US KEEPS TALKING TO RUSSIA AS UKRAINE INVASION FEARS GROW
IN MOSCOW TODAY: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is scheduled to meet with Putin today in the Kremlin, one day after he conferred with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv.
A big question for Scholz is how strongly he will communicate to Putin Germany’s willingness to scrap the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline if Russian troops enter Ukraine.
Polish Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau is set to meet with Lavrov today as well.
In Kyiv, Zelensky declared tomorrow, the day that U.S. intelligence warned Russian forces would be ready to invade, a “day of national unity,” calling on the country to display the Ukrainian flag and sing the national anthem.
Russia continues to insist it has no plans to invade, while Ukraine continues to downplay the risk of imminent military confrontation.
BACK TO BARRACKS? And just today, Moscow announced that some units participating in military exercises would begin returning to their bases.
“As the combat training measures are completed, the troops, as always, will make marches in a combined way to the points of permanent deployment,” said a statement from a spokesman for the Russian Defense Ministry.
“The units of the Southern and Western military districts, having completed their tasks, have already begun loading onto rail and road transport and will begin moving to their military garrisons today.”
MIGHT UKRAINE GIVE UP ITS DREAM? The U.S. is not willing to close the door on Ukraine’s desire to join NATO, even as there is no current path for that to happen.
Ukraine’s Ambassador to Great Britain, Vadym Prystaiko, set off a brief kerfuffle when he floated the idea in a BBC interview that his country might be “blackmailed” into dropping its bid to join the alliance, an idea that was quickly shot down in a tweet by Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba. “Ukraine’s strategic course on joining NATO remains unchanged,” Kuleba tweeted.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia would welcome Ukraine publicly renouncing its NATO ambitions.
UKRAINE AFFIRMS NATO ASPIRATION AFTER APPARENT WOBBLE
THE BUILDUP CONTINUES: Satellite images taken over the last few days show that Russian forces in Belarus, Crimea, and western Russia continue to take up positions closer to the Ukraine border, among the indications leading the U.S. to say an assault could begin at any time without further warning.
“Over the course of the weekend, Mr. Putin has added military capability along that border with Ukraine and in Belarus,” said Pentagon spokesman John Kirby. “He is exercising some of his units on the ground there in the south, as well as naval units in the Black Sea.”
He continues to give himself more options, should he pursue a military path here,” Kirby said. “He continues to advance his readiness, should he choose to go down a military path here, and should he choose to invade again, he is doing all the things you would expect him to do to make sure he’s ready for that option.”
PUTIN ‘ADDED MILITARY CAPABILITY’ TO UKRAINIAN BORDER OVER WEEKEND: PENTAGON
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HAPPENING TODAY: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin left this morning for Brussels, Belgium, where a two-day meeting of allied defense ministers at NATO headquarters begins tomorrow.
Before he left, Austin conferred by phone with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, thanking him for giving NATO “a more global view, particularly during this period of Russia’s ongoing, unprovoked military build-up in and around Ukraine,” according to a Pentagon readout.
Austin and Stoltenberg also “exchanged views on the importance of maintaining strong deterrence and defense and emphasized that Russia’s actions will ultimately achieve the opposite of their intended effect — a stronger and more unified NATO Alliance, postured to deter and defend against aggression along NATO’s eastern flank,” according to the statement.
Stoltenberg is scheduled to give his usual pre-ministerial press conference at 7 a.m. Washington time, which will be streamed on nato.int
AUSTIN TO VISIT NATO’S EASTERN FLANK: After the NATO defense ministerial wraps up Thursday, Austin heads to Poland, which borders Ukraine, and then to Lithuania, which borders Belarus, where Russia has also massed troops.
In Poland, Austin is to meet with President Andrzej Duda and Defense Minister Mariusz Błaszczak, and he will visit troops at Powidz Air Base in the west-central part of the country. The base is described as the “hub of U.S. operations” in Poland.
In Lithuania, Austin will meet with President Gitanas Nauseda, Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte, and Defense Minister Arvydas Anusauskas, as well as meet with U.S. troops stationed in Lithuania.
ALSO TODAY: At 9:30 a.m., the Senate Armed Services Committee hearing considers the nominations of Robert Storch to be Pentagon inspector general, Dr. Lester Martinez-Lopez to be assistant secretary of defense for health affairs, Christopher Lowman to be assistant secretary of defense for sustainment, and Peter Beshar to be Air Force general counsel.
US EMBASSY NOW IN LVIV: After reducing the number of people in the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv to a skeleton staff over the weekend, the State Department moved all operations to Lviv, in far western Ukraine.
“We are in the process of temporarily relocating our Embassy operations in Ukraine from our Embassy in Kyiv to Lviv due to the dramatic acceleration in the buildup of Russian forces. The Embassy will remain engaged with the Ukrainian government, coordinating diplomatic engagement in Ukraine,” said Secretary of State Antony Blinken in a statement.
“I have ordered these measures for one reason — the safety of our staff — and we strongly urge any remaining U.S. citizens in Ukraine to leave the country immediately,” Blinken said. “These prudent precautions in no way undermine our support for or our commitment to Ukraine. Our commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity is unwavering.”
‘STOP THIS NOW’: At the very end of yesterday’s Pentagon briefing, spokesman John Kirby delivered an impassioned off-the-cuff plea for Russia to back off.
“Should they conduct another major military action, real lives will be at risk. Ukrainian lives to be sure but also Russian lives. This will not be bloodless, this will not be easy,” Kirby said. “Not only will you see people trying to flee the country, but you’re going to see people seriously hurt and seriously killed as a result of it. And there’s no reason for it.”
“The Russians can de-escalate immediately. They could easily sit down and take seriously a diplomatic path forward and stop this now,” he said. “So that there is no need for people to have to flee their homes. So that there are no casualties, there is no bloodshed. It’s within Mr. Putin’s power to make the right decision now.”
INHOFE: NEW INDO-PACIFIC STRATEGY ‘LEAVES A LOT TO BE DESIRED’: Oklahoma Sen. Jim Inhofe, ranking member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, has released a statement damning the Biden administration’s new Indo-Pacific strategy with faint praise.
“This strategy largely — and correctly — builds on the Trump administration’s ‘U.S. Strategic Framework for the Indo-Pacific,’” Inhofe says. “Unfortunately, the strategy takes a step backward by not reflecting the reality of the Chinese Communist Party’s aggressive objectives, capabilities, and actions. I’ve always said that accurately assessing our adversary should be the first step.”
“I remain very concerned that this administration’s actions will not match its rhetoric,” said Inhofe, who also questioned why the strategy document delayed National Security Strategy and National Defense Strategy, rather than being released simultaneously or after.
“Hopefully, the upcoming National Defense Strategy and the Fiscal Year 2023 budget request reflects this approach,” Inhofe said, but so far, he’s unimpressed. “The Biden administration’s approach to the Indo-Pacific leaves a lot to be desired.”
INDUSTRY WATCH: In the face of Federal Trade Commission opposition, Lockheed Martin is throwing in the towel on its $4.4 billion bid to acquire Aerojet Rocketdyne.
“Our planned acquisition of Aerojet Rocketdyne would have benefited the entire industry through greater efficiency, speed, and significant cost reductions for the U.S. government,” said Lockheed Martin Chairman, President, and CEO James Taiclet in a statement.
“However, we determined that in light of the FTC’s actions, terminating the transaction is in the best interest of our stakeholders. We stand by our long heritage as a merchant supplier and trusted partner and will continue to support Aerojet Rocketdyne and other essential suppliers in the Defense Industrial Base still overcoming the challenges of the pandemic.”
The FTC argued that under the proposed acquisition, Lockheed Martin could “use its control of Aerojet to harm rival defense contractors and further consolidate multiple markets crucial to national security and defense,” according to a statement last month.
LOCKHEED MARTIN SHUTS DOWN MISSILE SYSTEM COMPANY ACQUISITION AS FTC INTERVENES
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: US keeps talking to Russia as Ukraine invasion fears grow
Washington Examiner: Ukraine affirms NATO aspiration after apparent wobble
Washington Examiner: Ukraine rattles world with national ‘Day of Unity’ on date Russia may invade
Washington Examiner: Putin ‘added military capability’ to Ukrainian border over weekend: Pentagon
Washington Examiner: Engineer who used peanut butter sandwich to try to sell nuclear secrets pleads guilty
Washington Examiner: Lockheed Martin shuts down missile system company acquisition as FTC intervenes
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Ukraine crisis: Why did the 82nd Airborne avoid German airspace?
Washington Post: Envoys Leaving Ukraine Capital
Wall Street Journal: Russia To Weigh Future Of Donbas Region
The Drive: Russia Doubles Down On Claims A U.S. Submarine Was In Its Waters Despite Denial
Stars and Stripes: Russia Threatens To Fire On Foreign Vessels In Its Waters After Navy Sub Incident
AP: Six months of Taliban: Afghans safer, poorer, less hopeful
Air Force Magazine: Airborne Lasers, New Kinetic Weapons Paired in Virtual Test
Air Force Magazine: Space Force Wrestling With ‘Digital First’ Culture
Defense News: U.S. And U.K. Sign Cooperation Agreement For Future Vertical Lift Programs
Air Force Times: Air Force Fleet’s Mission-Capable Rates are Stagnating. Here’s the Plan to Change That.
Reuters: U.S. Navy Eyes Israeli Robot Boats As Bennett Visits Bahrain, Official Says
Red Snow News: Crashed F-35 in South China Sea remains a military treasure hunt
Red Snow News: Biden mum on landmine campaign promise as Pentagon opts to keep studying the issue
Washington Post: On N. Korea, Some Scholars Wonder: What If We Tried Something Different?
19fortyfive.com: Opinion: Russia Is a Nation In Decline: Invading Ukraine Be a Tragic Mistake
19fortyfive.com: Opinion: How to Make Russia Pay in Ukraine: Study Syria
19fortyfive.com: Opinion: Can a Russian Invasion of Ukraine Be Avoided?
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Bahrain chooses alignment with Israel over submission to Iran
The Cipher Brief: Opinion: Is the Russian President a Strategic Master or a Strategic Failure?
Calendar
TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 15
5:30 a.m. — International Institute for Strategic Studies virtual launch of its 2022 edition of “The Military Balance” https://www.iiss.org/events/2022/02/military-balance-2022-launch
7 a.m. — NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg briefs reporters at NATO headquarters ahead of Wednesday and Thursday meeting of the NATO defense ministers https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news
8 a.m. — Arab Center virtual conference: “The Conflict in Yemen: Current Situation and Future Prospects,” with U.N. Special Envoy for Yemen Hans Grundberg https://dohainstitute-org.zoom.us/webinar/register
9:30 a.m. G50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on the nominations of Robert Storch to be DOD Inspector General; Dr. Lester Martinez-Lopez to be assistant secretary of defense for health affairs; and Christopher Lowman to be assistant secretary of defense for sustainment. https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings/nominations
10 a.m. — Woodrow Wilson Center Middle East Program virtual discussion: “War in Yemen: Implications for Regional and U.S. Security,” with former State Department Special Representative for Iran Brian Hook, vice chairman of Cerberus Global Investments; Fatima Abo Alasrar, nonresident scholar at the Middle East Institute; and Katherine Zimmerman, fellow at the American Enterprise Institute https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/war-yemen-implications
12 p.m. — Association of the U.S. Army webinar: “Warrant Officer Talent Management,” with Chief Warrant Officer 5 Rick Knowlton, the senior warrant officer adviser for the Army Talent Management Task Force; CW5 Patrick Nelligan, command chief warrant officer of the Army Reserve Command; and CW5 Teresa Domeier, command chief warrant officer of the Army National Guard https://info.ausa.org/e/784783/-Noon-Report-Talent-Management
1 p.m. — Center for a New American Security virtual discussion: “Strategic Readiness: Meeting the Challenges of Today and Tomorrow,” with Shawn Skelly, assistant defense secretary for readiness; and Becca Wasser, fellow at the CNAS Defense Program: Register at https://www.cnas.org/events/mission-brief-preserving-readiness
1 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual book discussion: “War Transformed: The Future of Twenty-First-Century Great Power Competition and Conflict,” with author and Australian Army Maj. Gen. Mick Ryan https://www.csis.org/events/book-launch-war-transformed
2 p.m. — Woodrow Wilson Center Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies virtual discussion: “Russia and China on the Brink,” with former Defense Undersecretary for Policy Michele Flournoy, co-founder and managing partner at WestExec https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/russia-and-ukraine-brink-discussion
2 p.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Aerospace Nation discussion with Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall; and retired Lt. Gen. Dave Deptula, dean of The Mitchell Institute https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/
WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 16
All day — A two-day meeting of allied defense ministers at NATO headquarters in Brussels, Belgium https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news
9:30 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “What’s Next for India and the Quad?” with Sana Hashmi, visiting fellow at the Taiwan-Asia Exchange Foundation; Manjari Chatterjee Miller, senior fellow for India, Pakistan, and South Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations; and Harsh Pant, director of studies at the New Delhi Observer Research Foundation’s Strategic Studies Program https://www.csis.org/events/whats-next-india-and-quad
10 a.m. — Air Force Association Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies virtual discussion on a new report, “Beyond Pixie Dust: A Framework for Understanding and Developing Autonomy in Unmanned Aircraft,” with author Heather Penney, AFA senior resident fellow https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/event/beyond-pixie-dust
10 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies Missile Defense Project virtual discussion: “Project Convergence: An Experiment for Multidomain Operations,” with Lt. Gen. James Richardson, acting commanding general of Army Futures Command; Army Col. Toby Magsig, deputy exercise director for Project Convergence; and Gary Lambert, data collection and analysis lead for Project Convergence https://www.csis.org/events/project-convergence-experiment
10 a.m. — Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments virtual book discussion on “War Transformed: The Future of 21st Century Great Power Competition and Conflict,” with author and Australian Army Maj. Gen. Mick Ryan, commander of the Australian Defense College; former Defense Undersecretary for Policy Eric Edelman, CSBA counselor; and Thomas Mahnken, CSBA president https://csbaonline.org/about/events/the-future-of-war
11 a.m. — Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft virtual discussion: “Who’s Afraid of the Military Industrial Complex? – The Shifting Politics of Pentagon Spending.” with Michael Brenes, interim director of the Brady-Johnson Program in Grand Strategy and history lecturer at Yale University; Shana Marshall, associate director of the Institute for Middle East Studies at George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs; William Hartung, senior research fellow at the Quincy Institute; and Kelley Beaucar Vlahos, senior adviser at the Quincy Institute and editorial director of its online magazine https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register
12 p.m. — American Bar Association virtual discussion: “Germany’s Perspective of the Ukraine Crisis,” with Liana Fix, resident fellow at the German Marshall Fund’s Washington office; and Hermann Knott, partner at Koblenz, Mainz, Cologne and Dsseldor Law, Germany https://americanbar.zoom.us/webinar/register
12 p.m. — Washington Institute for Near East Policy virtual discussion: “Targeting the Islamic State: Jihadist Military Threats and the U.S. Response,” with Craig Whiteside, associate professor at the U.S. Naval War College; and Ido Levy, associate fellow at WINEP https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/targeting-islamic-state
12 p.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “Assessing the Impact of Iraq’s Incoming Government,” with Feisal Al-Istrabadi, professor of global strategic studies at Indiana University at Bloomington; Sajad Jiyad, fellow at the Century Foundation; and Marsin Alshamary, research fellow at Harvard Kennedy School’s Middle East Initiative https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/assessing-the-impact-of-iraqs-incoming-government
12 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: “The Shrinking U.S. Fighting Force: Is the American Military Fading Into Irrelevance?” with retired Marine Corps Maj. Gen. Arnold Punaro, CEO of the Punaro Group; Dan Patt, senior fellow at the Hudson Center for Defense Concepts and Technology; and Bryan Clark, director of the Hudson Center for Defense Concepts and Technology https://www.hudson.org/events/2075-virtual-event-the-shrinking-us-fighting-force-is-the-american-military-fading-into-irrelevance-22022
12:30 p.m. — George Washington University Security Policy Studies Program virtual discussion: “American Arctic Strategy for the 21st Century,” with representatives from the Air Force and Space Force. https://calendar.gwu.edu/american-arctic-strategy-21st-century
3 p.m. —Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “The Future of the Royal Navy,” with UK First Sea Lord and Chief of Naval Staff Adm. Ben Key https://www.csis.org/events/future-royal-navy
3:30 p.m. — Bipartisan Policy Center virtual discussion, beginning at 3:30 p.m., on “Linking Climate, Trade, and Geopolitics,” with Sen. Kevin Cramer, R-N.D.; former White House national security adviser retired Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster; George David Banks, fellow at BPC; and Xan Fishman, director of energy policy and carbon management at BPC https://bipartisanpolicy.org/event/the-geopolitical
THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 17
8:30 a.m. — German Marshall Fund of the United States virtual book discussion on “The Strategy of Denial: American Defense in an Age of Great Power Conflict,” with author Elbridge Colby, former deputy assistant defense secretary for strategy and force development https://www.gmfus.org/event/strategy-denial-american-defense-age-great-power-conflict
10 a.m. G50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on the nominations of Franklin Parker to be assistant secretary of the Navy for manpower and reserve affairs; Agnes Schaefer to be assistant secretary of the Army for manpower and reserve affairs; Ravi Chaudhary to be assistant secretary of the Air Force for energy, installations, and the environment; and Frank Calvelli to be assistant secretary of the air force for space acquisition and integration https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings/nominations
10 a.m. — Hudson Institute virtual event: “Ukraine on the Eve of the Munich Security Conference,” with Rep. Mike Turner, R-Ohio and ranking member of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence; and Kenneth Weinstein, distinguished fellow, Hudson Institute https://www.eventbrite.com/e/virtual-event-ukraine
10 a.m. — Air Force Association’s Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies virtual Aerospace Nation discussion: “Spectrum Warfare,” with Maj. Gen. Daniel Simpson, assistant Air Force deputy chief of staff for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance; Air Force Col. William Young, commander of the 350th Spectrum Warfare Wing; former assistant deputy defense undersecretary for airborne reconnaissance Maj. Gen. Ken Israel; and Ken Dworkin, executive adviser for electromagnetic combat at Booz Allen Hamilton https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/event/aerospace-nation-spectrum-warfare
10 a.m. — Middle East Institute virtual discussion: “The Olympics and Russian Invasion,” with Robert McConnell, co-founder of the U.S.-Ukraine Foundation; Gonul Tol, director of the MEI Turkey Program; Iulia Joja, director of the MEI Frontier Europe Initiative; and retired Air Force Gen. Phillip Breedlove, chair of the MEI Frontier Europe Initiative https://www.mei.edu/events/olympics-and-russian-invasion
10:45 a.m. — American Bar Association’s Standing Committee on Law and National Security virtual National Security Law conference discussion: “The National Security Implications of Domestic Discord: How Our Adversaries Create, Enhance, and Use Our Internal Disagreements Against Us,” with Assistant Attorney General for National Security Matthew Olsen https://web.cvent.com/event
11 a.m. — Woodrow Wilson Center’s Middle East Program virtual book discussion on “The Unfinished History of the Iran-Iraq War: Faith, Firepower, and Iran’s Revolutionary Guards,” with author Annie Tracy Samuel, assistant professor of history at the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/documenting-irgc
12 p.m. — Vandenberg Coalition virtual discussion: “The Future of Conservative Foreign Policy,” with former State Department Policy Planning Staff Director Peter Berkowitz, senior fellow at the Hoover Institution https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register
12 p.m. — Washington Post Live event: “World Stage: Crisis in Ukraine,” with William Taylor, Former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live
1 p.m. — JINSA policy webinar: “What’s At Stake for U.S. & Israel in the Russia-Ukraine Crisis?” with retired Air Force Gen. Philip Breedlove, former Supreme Allied Commander Europe; former commander U.S. European Command
FRIDAY | FEBRUARY 18
All Day — The Munich Security Conference begins and goes through Sunday. Feb. 20 at its traditional venue, the Hotel Bayerischer Hof in Munich. Vice President Kamala Harris and Secretary of State Antony Blinken attend, along withUkrainian President Vladimir Zelensky also plans to participate.https://securityconference.org/en/news/full/information
8 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies and the Japan Institute of International Affairs virtual 2022 U.S.-Japan Security Seminar, with Japanese Foreign Affairs Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi; Kenichiro Sasae, president of JIIA; Tetsuo Kotani, senior fellow at JIIA; and Bonnie Lin, director of the CSIS China Power Project https://www.csis.org/events/2022-us-japan-security-seminar
10:45 a.m. — American Bar Association virtual National Security Law conference with sessions on “The End of Forever War? Now What?” and “The Future of National Security Surveillance” https://web.cvent.com/event
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“This will not be bloodless, this will not be easy … And there’s no reason for it. The Russians can de-escalate immediately. They could easily sit down and take seriously a diplomatic path forward and stop this now. So that there is no need for people to have to flee their homes, so that there are no casualties, there is no bloodshed. It’s within Mr. Putin’s power to make the right decision now.”
Pentagon spokesman John Kirby.
