Joe Biden is leading in the national polls, big league. He’s leading in most of the swing-state polls. States that were safe for President Trump are now in play.

On the other hand, Trump outperformed the polls four years ago, and he could gain on Biden for one reason or another over the next 3 1/2 weeks. And, of course, Trump doesn’t have to win the national popular vote (there’s no such thing!); he just has to win states worth 270 Electoral College votes.