THE REPUBLICAN SENATE FORMULA. Tuesday’s newsletter covered the fact that GOP strategists believe the race for control of the House is over. “The midterm results, as far as the House of Representatives is concerned, are pretty much set in stone,” it said. “Republicans are going to win. Democrats are going to lose.” That’s the House. Now, what about the Senate?
It’s really a pretty short and simple story. “It starts with holding on to what you have,” said a GOP strategist involved in a number of Senate races. That means Republicans winning currently Republican seats in North Carolina, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. The strategist feels good about winning the first three and now, after the strange and troubling debate between Democrat John Fetterman and Republican Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, believes the GOP will win there, too.
By the way, on the Pennsylvania debate and polls — it takes a while to get good polling on an event like that. First, it has to sink in with the voters, and only then can pollsters get a good read on what effect it might have on public sentiment about the race. So look for some polls on, say, Monday that will give an idea of what is going on.
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In any event, the first thing Republicans have to do is keep what they have. Then they have to take one or more currently Democratic seats. The opportunities to do that are in Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona. If the GOP wins just one of those seats and keeps all of its own, then Republicans win the Senate with a 51-49 majority. If the GOP loses one of its own seats, it will have to win two currently Democratic seats to win the Senate.
“I would say that Nevada and Georgia are in the best shape,” the strategist said. “If the election were held today, we would win those.” That leaves Arizona, which looked bad for the GOP a few weeks ago but is now moving in a Republican direction. “I thought it was over a month or so [ago], but Blake Masters has come up out of the grave,” the strategist said. So Arizona is on the might-win map.
That’s about it. At this point, it’s not a terribly complicated story. For Republicans, the eight most likely scenarios break down into two groups: the “Win Pennsylvania” scenario and the “Lose Pennsylvania” scenario. With that in mind, the GOP’s most likely possibilities are:
1) Win Georgia-Nevada-Arizona, lose no incumbent seats — win Senate 53-47.
2) Win two of Georgia-Nevada-Arizona, lose no incumbent seats — win Senate 52-48.
3) Win one of Georgia-Nevada-Arizona, lose no incumbent seats — win Senate 51-49.
4) Win none of Georgia-Nevada-Arizona, lose no incumbent seats — Senate remains tied at 50-50, Democrats control with vice president’s vote.
5) Win Georgia-Nevada-Arizona, lose Pennsylvania — win Senate 52-48.
6) Win two of Georgia-Nevada-Arizona, lose Pennsylvania — win Senate 51-49.
7) Win one of Georgia-Nevada-Arizona, lose Pennsylvania — Senate remains tied at 50-50, Democrats control with vice president’s vote.
8) Win none of Georgia-Nevada-Arizona, lose Pennsylvania — Democrats win Senate 51-49.
In five of those scenarios, Republicans take control of the Senate, and in three scenarios, Democrats remain in charge.
For those wondering about Georgia, where just yesterday yet another woman appeared with an allegation about Republican candidate Herschel Walker — the strategist remains confident. “It sort of helped that it was a Gloria Allred thing because that made it a circus,” he said, referring to the celebrity lawyer who in the past has sometimes championed women with unsubstantiated charges against famous men. The strategist added that it was also a good thing that the allegation came out on a day when Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), who played a key role in the Brett Kavanaugh Supreme Court confirmation hearings, was campaigning with Walker and declared the new allegations a replay of the Kavanaugh travesty.
Finally, the strategist said there are other races, most notably New Hampshire, in which Republicans will make the race close. Even in Connecticut, he said, the GOP is competitive. But those are sideshows. In the big pictures, the Republican path to victory is simple: Defend your own, and win at least one of theirs.
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