UNHAPPY ANNIVERSARY: Today, June 12, marks one year since the historic Singapore summit between President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, the first time leaders of the two countries met face-to-face.
Since then, the initial optimism that Kim might be willing to trade his nuclear weapons and ballistic missile program for economic development and U.S. security guarantees have faded under a cloud of increasingly bellicose rhetoric from the North, and the lack of any real progress in the stalled talks.
“While there was much hope that Singapore would deliver results, it has, thus far, failed to do so. North Korea is no closer to denuclearizing than it was prior to Singapore and human rights conditions in North Korea continue to deteriorate,” said Heritage policy analyst Olivia Enos, a veteran of both last year’s Singapore and February’s Vietnam summits.
“Denuclearization negotiations with North Korea are at an impasse. Kim Jong Un has been no more willing to abandon his country’s arsenal than his father and grandfather were,” added Heritage’s Bruce Klingner, a former CIA Korea deputy chief. “The Trump Administration initially sanctioned more North Korean entities in its first 18 months in office than the Obama Administration did in eight years. But like his predecessors, Trump has not fully enforced U.S. laws, including those protecting the U.S. financial system. For all its tough talk, the Trump Administration’s ‘maximum pressure’ policy was never maximum.”
‘HE TOTALLY GETS IT’: On the South Lawn of the White House yesterday, Trump said he still believes his personal relationship with Kim will result in a deal eventually and cited another letter he received from Kim as a counterpoint to some of the harsh words directed at his negotiating team coming from North Korea’s state-controlled media.
“The letter he sent was a beautiful letter. It was a very warm letter. That’s a very nice thing. And I don’t say that out of naiveté. I say that was a very nice letter,” Trump said. “I think North Korea has tremendous potential. And the one that feels that more than anybody is Kim Jong Un. He gets it. He totally gets it.”
“Look, in the meantime, he’s kept his word,” Trump said. “There’s no nuclear testing, there’s no large, you know, long-range missiles going up. The only thing he sent up were very short-term, short-range. That was just a test of short range. It’s a whole different deal.”
Trump says he’s willing to meet with Kim again, but nothing is scheduled. “It could happen, but I want to bring it further down the line.”
MIXED MESSAGE: Earlier in the day, Trump’s national security adviser John Bolton was again at odds with his boss and struck a more skeptical note. Speaking at an event sponsored by the Wall Street Journal, Bolton said while it’s true that North Korea has not tested any nuclear devices or launched long-range intercontinental ballistic missiles, “They’re doing a lot of other things that still indicate that they have not made a strategic decision to give up the pursuit of deliverable weapons,” which is why he said “we continue the maximum pressure campaign.”
Bolton also said it was “entirely possible” there could be a third Trump-Kim summit. “Kim Jong Un holds the key,” he said.
‘WOULDN’T LET THAT HAPPEN’: Asked about a report in the Wall Street Journal that Kim’s half-brother — who was murdered with a deadly nerve agent in 2017 — was a CIA source, Trump didn’t offer any confirmation, but he did have a message for Kim: “I would tell him that would not happen under my auspices, that’s for sure. I wouldn’t let that happen under my auspices.”
‘WHOSE SIDE IS HE ON?’: The remark has former national security officials scratching their heads. “These are exactly the types of sources that the CIA looks to get. You want to target people that are close to people of power and that have information on a country like North Korea,” said Samantha Vinograd, a former Obama administration official. “You kind of have to wonder whose side is he on.”
“Let’s also remember Kim assassinated his half-brother with WMD Malaysia. So, President Trump is sending a message to U.S. intelligence sources or potential sources that he’s not going to say anything if they’re assassinated with nerve agents in the third country. He’s signaling that he’s throwing his own intelligence community under the bus in favor of a despot yet again,” she said on CNN.
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HAPPENING TODAY: President Trump meets Poland’s President Andrzej Duda at the White House and the two leaders are scheduled to make what one senior administration official yesterday called “a significant announcement” on a “new facet in the military-to-military relationship” between the NATO allies.
You may recall that during Duda’s last visit to Washington in September he offered to name a base in Poland “Fort Trump” if the United States was willing to station more troops there.
Officials who spoke to reporters in advance of the announcement declined to provide details, saying they didn’t want to “steal the president’s thunder,” but Poland has already indicated it will be hosting more U.S. troops, and has requested approval to buy top-of-the-line U.F. F-35 Joint Strike Fighters to replace its aging Soviet-era jets.
A MODEL ALLY: “When you think about contributions in terms of NATO and burden-sharing, they’re the model,” said acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan as he met yesterday with Poland’s Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak.
Poland is one of the few NATO countries that has exceeded the 2% spending goal agreed to by NATO member nations in 2014 and has provided troops to serve alongside the U.S. in both Iraq and Afghanistan.
“Poland is a particularly important part of this as they have indicated their willingness to shoulder a greater share of the burden for their own security, and for the security of the region,” said a senior administration official briefing reporters ahead of today’s announcement. “Their defense spending is over the 2% NATO goal, and they have been a key partner in encouraging other allies to do so.”
SHANAHAN’S STATUS: President Trump caused some confusion yesterday with his answer to a question about when he would follow up on his announced intention to nominate Shanahan to be his second defense secretary. “Pat Shanahan was nominated two weeks ago,” Trump said. “I put it out officially. No, now he has to go through the process.”
So far, Shanahan’s formal nomination has not been sent to Senate Armed Services Committee. A request for clarification to the Pentagon Press Office went unanswered.
The confusion comes as NBC reported that the president was having second thoughts about Shanahan and that while in France last week for D-Day ceremonies, Trump asked several confidants about alternative candidates.
“Trump asked at least three people what they thought of Shanahan and if they had any suggestions for different candidates,” NBC said, citing four people familiar with the conversations. “They said Army Secretary Mark Esper was discussed as a possible replacement nominee should Trump decide to pull back his Shanahan announcement.”
KEEP IT APOLITICAL, FOLKS: Shanahan has issued a pointed reminder warning to all troops and civilian defense personnel to refrain from engaging in partisan political activity.
The memo obtained by the Washington Examiner reads in part, “Our mission, to protect and defend the nation, is apolitical,” the memo read. “I call on leaders at all levels in the department to reinforce the apolitical nature of military and civilian service and professionalism, while ensuring all personnel remain free to exercise the responsibilities of citizenship as laws and regulations allow.”
The memo comes came after two incidents during President Trump’s visit to Japan. In one, a White House staffer requested the USS John S. McCain be kept “out of sight,” presumably because of Trump’s well-known antipathy toward the late Sen. John McCain. That request was not carried out. In a second case, some sailors wore uniform patches bearing the words “Make Aircrew Great Again” — a play on Trump’s 2016 campaign slogan — and Trump’s image.
Asked about the reason for the directive yesterday Shanahan said, “What I wanted to do is after the McCain situation remind everyone that we’re not going to politicize the military. So, it’s just a good, healthy reminder,” he said. “There’s nothing wrong with having a reminder.”
IN DEFENSE OF THE SAUDI ARMS SALE: In the face of bipartisan anger over the use of emergency powers to facilitate arms sales to the Middle East over the objections of Congress, the State Department is set to defend the decision in what promises to be a contentious 10 a.m. hearing in the House Foreign Affairs Committee.
The outrage reflected in the title of hearing on the committee’s webpage “What Emergency?: Arms Sales and the Administration’s Dubious End-Run around Congress.” Clarke Cooper, assistant secretary of State for political-military affairs, will be in the hot seat.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo notified Congress May 24 of 22 arms sales totaling $8.1 billion for Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Jordan.
“These sales and the associated emergency certification are intended to address the military needs of our partners in the face of an urgent regional threat posed by Iran; promote the vitality of our bilateral relationships by reassuring our partners; and preserve strategic advantage against near-peer competitors,” Cooper will say according to his prepared testimony.
“This action is not intended to be an escalatory military step; instead, it is a loud and clear message to Iran that we stand by our regional partners. This set of cases demonstrate the United States’ resolve to stand with our partners and to ensure we remain their partner of choice.”
ALSO TODAY, FULL HASC MARK-UP: Now the real work begins in the House Armed Services Committee, as the committee begins marking up the 2020 National Defense Authorization Act. Chairman Rep. Adam Smith, D-Wash., wants to cut $17 billion from the president’s request and ban deployment of low-yield submarine-launched missiles, and ranking member Rep. Mac Thornberry, R-Texas, will be introducing an amendment to restore the funding.
Stay tuned.
CSIS ON ‘SOFT WAR’: The Center for Strategic and International Studies has a new briefing paper out titled “The United States’ Soft War with Iran.”
The brief “explores Iran’s attempts to influence populations across the globe through media, cultural centers, and charitable foundations,” according to CSIS, and recommends that to compete with Iran’s expanding reach, “the United States should increase public diplomacy and other information efforts just as it did during the Cold War.”
SOMALIA PEACE TALKS SOMALIA: The U.S. Africa Command says that it’s top commander Gen. Thomas Waldhauser and the U.S. Ambassador to Somalia Donald Yamamoto met with Prime Minister Hassan Ali Khaire and other senior Somali officials in Mogadishu yesterday.
“Discussions centered on the progress the U.S. interagency team has witnessed in Somalia, as well as U.S. whole-of-government support for the Federal Government of Somalia to set the conditions required for lasting security and stability,” said a release from AFRICOM.
The Rundown
Defense One: U.S. Intelligence Officials and Satellite Photos Detail Russian Military Buildup on Crimea
Wall Street Journal: U.S.-Russia Ties At Most Dangerous Point In Years, Says A Top Moscow Diplomat
Reuters: Russia Plans To Deliver Missiles To Turkey In July; U.S. Takes Dim View
AP: U.S. ‘Gift’ To China Shows Unenforced North Korea Sanctions
Wall Street Journal: Bolton Says U.S. Is Expanding Offensive Cyber Operations
AP: Pentagon still struggles with military kid sex assault cases
Seapower Magazine: Top HASC Republican Says His Vote Hinges On GOP’s 2020 Budget Add-Ons
Bloomberg: Defense Abuses Like 9,400% Markup on Parts Targeted in New Bill
New York Times: Australia’s Military Renews Ties In Pacific
Stars and Stripes: Iceland Rift Over NATO Membership Sidelined In Arctic Security Talks
USNI News: Navy Flyers Training With Marine V-22s Ahead of COD Transition
Calendar
WEDNESDAY | JUNE 12
7 a.m. 2425 Wilson Blvd, Arl. Association of the United States Army’s Institute of Land Warfare presents day-long hot topic: “Army Installations Role in the Strategic Support Area in Multi-Domain Operations,” at the AUSA Conference and Event Center. www.ausa.org/events
8:30 a.m. 1301 K St N.W. Washington Post Beijing Bureau Chief Anna Fifieldl speaks with Post columnist David Ignatius about her forthcoming book “The Great Successor: The Divinely Perfect Destiny of Brilliant Comrade Kim Jong Un.” Streamed live at www.washingtonpost.com/post-live-worldview-north-korea
10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn. House Armed Services full committee markup of the FY 2020 National Defense Authorization Act. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
10 a.m. 2172 Rayburn. House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing on “What Emergency?: Arms Sales and the Administration’s Dubious End-Run around Congress.” Witness: Clarke Cooper, assistant secretary of State for political-military affairs. foreignaffairs.house.gov/hearings
10 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Avenue N.E. Heritage Foundation discussion on “The Future of Taiwan-U.S. Relations.” Taiwan’s Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Szu-chien Hsu delivers keynote remarks, followed by two panel discussions. www.heritage.org/asia/event
10:30 a.m. 2255 Rayburn. Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe discussion on “Russia’s Counterproductive Counterterrorism.” Speakers: Former Deputy Assistant Defense Secretary for Russia Michael Carpenter; Rachel Denber, deputy director of Human Rights Watch’s Europe and Central Asia Division; and Mariya Omelicheva, a strategy professor at the U.S. National War College. Livestream at http://www.youtube.com/HelsinkiCommission
1 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Avenue N.W. Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion with former Defense Secretary Ash Carter on his book “Inside the Five-Sided Box: Lessons from a Lifetime of Leadership in the Pentagon.” www.csis.org/events
2 p.m. White House, Rose Garden. President Trump holds a joint news conference with Polish President Andrzej Duda.
3 p.m. 215 Dirksen. Senate Finance International Trade, Customs, and Global Competitiveness Subcommittee hearing on “China’s Belt and Road Initiative.” Witnesses: Carolyn Bartholomew, chairman of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission; Roy Kamphausen, commissioner of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission; Daniel Kliman, senior fellow and director of the Center for a New American Security’s Asia-Pacific Security Program, and Derek Scissors, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. www.finance.senate.gov/hearings
3 p.m. CVC-200, U.S. Capitol. The House Army Caucus and the Senate Army Caucus hold the 244th Army Birthday Cake-Cutting Ceremony and Reception with Army Secretary Mark Esper, Chief of Staff Gen. Mark Milley, and Sgt. Maj. Daniel Dailey.
7 p.m. 5015 Connecticut Ave. N.W. Former Defense Secretary Ash Carter discusses his book “Inside the Five-Sided Box: Lessons from a Lifetime of Leadership in the Pentagon,” at the Politics and Prose bookstore. www.politics-prose.com
THURSDAY | JUNE 13
9 a.m. 1100 Longworth. House Select Intelligence Committee hearing on “National Security Challenges of Artificial Intelligence, Manipulated Media, and ‘Deepfakes.'”
https://intelligence.house.gov
10:30 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Avenue N.W. Center for Strategic and International Studies conversation with John Gans, former chief speechwriter to Defense Secretary Ash Carter, on his book “White House Warriors, How the National Security Council Changed the American Way of War.” www.csis.org/events
MONDAY | JUNE 17
All Week. The 53rd International Paris Air Show takes place from June 17 to 23 at the Exhibition Center of Le Bourget, just north of Paris. The U.S. has the largest international presence with some 350 aerospace and defense manufacturers and suppliers displaying the world’s most advanced aircraft, materials, components, products, and services. www.siae.fr/en
TUESDAY | JUNE 18
8 a.m. 2401 M Street N.W. Defense Writers Group breakfast with Air Force Gen. Paul Selva, vice chairman of the joint chiefs of staff. nationalsecuritymedia.gwu.edu
WEDNESDAY | JUNE 19
10 a.m. 529 14th St. N.W. National Press Club Headliners Newsmaker event with House Intelligence Chairman Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Calif. https://www.press.org/events
11 a.m. 303 Cannon. The Sustainable Defense Task Force releases its new report “A Sustainable Defense: More Security, Less Spending,” calling for $1.2 trillion in Pentagon budget cuts over the next decade. Speakers: Salih Booker, president, Center for International Policy; William Hartung, Center for International Policy; Mandy Smithberger, Project On Government Oversight; and Neta Crawford, Boston University. www.internationalpolicy.org
MONDAY | JUNE 24
12:30 p.m. 529 14th St. N.W. National Press Club Headliners Luncheon with Army Secretary Mark Esper. https://www.press.org/events
THURSDAY | JUNE 27
7:30 a.m. 555 Pennsylvania Ave. N.W. Defense One Tech Summit. Speakers include Ellen Lord, undersecretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment; William Evanina, director of the national counterintelligence and security center, ODNI; Sue Gordon, principal deputy director of national intelligence, ODNI; Rep. Mike Turner, R-Ohio; and more. www.defenseone.com
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“Our mission, to protect and defend the nation, is apolitical. I call on leaders at all levels in the department to reinforce the apolitical nature of military and civilian service and professionalism, while ensuring all personnel remain free to exercise the responsibilities of citizenship as laws and regulations allow.”
Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan in a memo to the troops, following the USS John S. McCain incident.
