The Biden administration’s claims that it wields “enormous” economic leverage over the Taliban are overstated, some outside conservative experts said.
Since the United States’s withdrawal from Afghanistan began, the Biden administration has been claiming that the Taliban must uphold the human rights of those in Afghanistan should it expect to gain access to cash and to the global marketplace. It also is pushing the Taliban to allow the safe passage of U.S. citizens and Afghan allies from the country.
During a briefing on Tuesday, the day that the U.S. ended military involvement in Afghanistan, White House press secretary Jen Psaki was asked about the administration’s assertion that it holds coercive power over the Taliban. She said that the U.S. has “enormous leverage.”
Of Afghanistan’s estimated $9 billion in bank assets, the U.S. Federal Reserve holds roughly $7 billion of it — all of which is now frozen and inaccessible to the Taliban. The World Bank has also “paused disbursements” in Afghanistan.
US ARGUES IT HAS ‘ENORMOUS LEVERAGE’ OVER THE TALIBAN
“In order to gain access to the global marketplace, we’re going to be watching closely, as will the global community,” Psaki said.
But Jim Carafano of the conservative Heritage Foundation told the Washington Examiner that the notion that the U.S. has leverage over the Taliban is “absurd” and “laughable on its face.”
Carafano said that the Biden administration has already given up some of its leverage by telling the public that humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan will continue despite the militant group’s overthrow of the government.
In President Joe Biden’s Tuesday speech marking the end to U.S. presence in Afghanistan, the president said: “Let me be clear: We’ll continue to support the Afghan people through diplomacy, international influence, and humanitarian aid.”
If the Taliban believe that other countries can handle the refugee and humanitarian crisis, they’ll have less to worry about as they consolidate power and work to cultivate hard cash, Carafano said.
It is worth noting that national security adviser Jake Sullivan said that it is important that aid “should go directly to the people of Afghanistan” through international and nongovernmental organizations — not through the Taliban.
Carafano also said that the Taliban already have access to hard cash because they are “probably the largest drug traffickers in South Asia.” The Taliban, while claiming opposition to the drug trade, have profited greatly from the sale and movement of raw opium derived from Afghan poppy farms. Taxation of the industry helped fill the Taliban’s coffers and fueled their insurgency.
Peter Earle, an economist at the free market American Institute for Economic Research, said that “there is absolutely no doubt” in his mind that the Taliban will turn to the narcotics trafficking industry to raise funds should the U.S. try to withhold money.
“It is a way in the short term for them to make up any shortfall that comes owing to the cessation of foreign aid and also their funds being held back by the U.S. and other institutions,” Earle told the Washington Examiner.
While the Taliban might be hurting for money right now, other countries could soon step in and provide economic assistance in exchange for capitalizing off Afghanistan’s natural wealth — thus peeling back any economic leverage that the U.S. might have.
“What will happen is China, Russia, other countries will be invited in, and they’ll probably get better deals than they would have if the Taliban was in a better position,” Earle said.
Afghanistan is sitting on trillions of dollars of mineral wealth, including rare earth elements that are crucial to building electric-vehicle batteries, computer components, weapons systems, and other high-tech devices. Countries like China are likely eyeing those resources as assets for the future and could partner with the Taliban to that end.
China doesn’t care about the Taliban’s human rights abuses and would not let any moral qualms get ahead of its ambitions, according to Carafano, who predicted that China will “play the long game” with Afghanistan regarding economic development.
Prior to the Afghan government’s collapse, a Taliban delegation led by Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. After the meeting, Wang characterized the militant group as “a crucial military and political force in Afghanistan that is expected to play an important role in the peace, reconciliation, and reconstruction process of the country.”
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Carafano said that despite the administration’s insistence that it holds leverage over the Taliban, factors such as the drug trade, promises of continuing humanitarian assistance, and economic overtures from foreign powers highlight how obvious the administration’s dearth of leverage is.
“It’s actually making everything worse because when you say, ‘I have leverage,’ and everybody knows you don’t, it actually makes you look even weaker, and it actually gives them even more power,” he said.
