A threatened influx of Syrian refugees would force Europe to cope with a population that is poorer, more bewildered by years of war, and more prone to radicalism than the wave of refugees who swamped Western Europe five years ago and incited a political backlash.
“It will be much more difficult to settle them in Europe and for them to somehow find their way living within Europe than those who came in 2014, 2015, 2016,” a diplomat from a European country who specializes in Middle East issues told the Washington Examiner.
That expectation is anchored in the assessment that the millions of people who remained over the past several years in Syria’s Idlib province, where many of the immigrants are expected to emerge from, are often the least mobile and the most exposed to the suffering of a terror-fueled civil war. The province is a hotbed of terrorist groups mingled with civilians who have fled Syrian dictator Bashar Assad through eight years of civil war but now find themselves pinned in the last rebel-controlled territory.
“Europe is already fragile,” the diplomat said. “Those people fleeing from Idlib now are different, in general, from those who left Syria during the first big refugee crisis — 2014, 2015, 2016. Before, these were people who were educated, quite wealthy, able to move, and now in Idlib, this is a rather uneducated population, sometimes radicalized due to the heavy conditions there.”
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has angered Western officials by threatening to “open Turkey’s gates” and release those refugees already in his country unless he receives additional aid in the face of Assad’s Russian-backed assault on the rebels in Idlib.
“NATO is at a critical time to show clear solidarity with its allies,” Erdogan said Monday. “It is beyond reason and comprehension for an ally and a neighboring country to blame Turkey for the migrant wave,” he said, referring to Greece, during talks in Brussels with European leaders.
Erdogan’s February announcement that Turkish officials would no longer bar refugees from traveling to the European Union spurred roughly 35,000 refugees to try to leave his country. Officials in Greece, where the refugees cross into Europe, have used harsh tactics to repel the new arrivals, including the apparent use of long-range tear gas canisters fired at ranges close enough to cause serious injury. European leaders are irritated that Turkey is using the threat of a refugee wave as leverage to demand additional financial assistance.
“The events at the Greek-Turkish border clearly point to politically motivated pressure on the EU’s external border,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said at a news conference ahead of the talks. “Finding a solution to this situation will require relieving the pressure that is put on the border.”
The refugee crisis flared last month when Turkish and Russian forces came to the brink of open conflict in Syria due to an airstrike that killed dozens of Turkish troops in Idlib. Erdogan blamed Assad for the attack, rather than Russia, and retaliated against the regime before negotiating a ceasefire.
Erdogan called an emergency NATO meeting after the deadly airstrike, but he has not attempted to invoke the collective defense provisions of the treaty.
“The indiscriminate bombings by the Assad regime and Russia have caused untold human suffering,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Monday. “These attacks have increased the movement of people towards Turkey, which already hosts close to 4 million refugees … Allies are also prepared to continue to support Turkey. And we are exploring what more we may be able to do.”
Turkey’s relationship with the rest of NATO reached a low point over the last year, in part because Erdogan has insisted on purchasing advanced Russian anti-aircraft weaponry. Erdogan confirmed that he still plans to activate the controversial weapons system in April despite Russia’s support for Assad in the recent clashes.
Russian President Vladimir Putin struck a new cease-fire deal with Erdogan last week, but Russian officials quickly endorsed Assad’s right to “eliminate terrorists” — a broad loophole for a dictator who regards all rebels as radicals.
“The trap is still there,” the European diplomat said, referring to Russia’s ability to try to drive more Syrians out of Idlib and into Turkey. “There’s no doubt that Assad with Russian and Iranian help will try to push the Turks out in the future,” the diplomat said. “It’s just a matter of time, from my point of view.”
