BRACING FOR ATTACK: The State Department issued a “Level 4: Do Not Travel” advisory for Afghanistan yesterday, ordering all but the most essential U.S. Embassy staff in Kabul to leave the country, and urging Americans still in Afghanistan to consider departing “as soon as possible on available commercial flights.”
“Terrorist and insurgent groups continue planning and executing attacks in Afghanistan. These attacks occur with little or no warning, and have targeted official Afghan and U.S. government convoys and facilities,” the advisory warns. “Travel to all areas of Afghanistan is unsafe because of critical levels of kidnappings, hostage taking, suicide bombings, widespread military combat operations, landmines, and terrorist and insurgent attacks.”
‘WE HAVE TO ASSUME THAT THIS DRAWDOWN WILL BE OPPOSED’: At the Pentagon, spokesman John Kirby confirmed the deployment of B-52 bombers to Qatar, the movement of the aircraft carrier USS Eisenhower and its missile-firing escort ships to the Arabian Sea, and the dispatch of additional special operations forces to Afghanistan, are all in anticipation of a renewed Taliban offensive after the May 1 withdrawal deadline passes with U.S. troops still in the country.
“Without getting into specific intelligence about what we think the Taliban will or won’t do … we have to assume that this drawdown will be opposed,” Kirby told reporters at an off-camera briefing. “It would be irresponsible for us not to assume that this drawdown and forces drawing down, both American and from our NATO allies, could be attacked by the Taliban. And that is why you are seeing additional force protection assets being flowed into the region.”
STATE DEPARTMENT ORDERS SOME US EMBASSY STAFF TO LEAVE KABUL AMID ONSET OF TROOP WITHDRAWAL
A CHOICE ‘BETWEEN TWO FUTURES’: On Capitol Hill yesterday, Zalmay Khalilzad, special U.S. representative for Afghanistan reconciliation, told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that the Taliban have to choose “between two futures,” either embracing “a negotiated path to peace,” and a “transition from violent insurgency to a political movement,” or continue their efforts at a military takeover, in which case “they will be opposed not only by the Afghan Republic but by the United States and allies and partners in the region.”
In contrast to many intelligence assessments, Khalilzad told skeptical senators he does not believe there will be “an imminent collapse” of the U.S.-backed Afghan government, that instead, the country faces either “a negotiated political settlement or a long war.”
“I hope they will come together and cooperate,” he said, calling continued fighting “senseless” for all concerned.
WHAT THE ADMIRAL MEANT TO SAY: At one point in yesterday’s briefing, Kirby seemed to indicate that all U.S. military advice and assistance to the Afghan military would end cold turkey on May 1 and that the U.S. and NATO efforts would focus solely on packaging up and leaving.
That went far beyond what U.S. Afghanistan commander Gen. Scott Miller told reporters in Kabul Sunday, and shortly after the Pentagon briefing ended, Kirby took to Twitter to issue a correction and apology.
“I misspoke: NATO’s Resolute Support mission is not ending May 1st. There has also been no decision to change or reduce air support to the Afghan Security Forces. As Gen McKenzie said, our main effort is transitioning to one of withdrawal,” He said. “My errors all, and I regret them.”
AN ANXIOUS TIME IN AFGHANISTAN AS US WITHDRAWAL BEGINS
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HAPPENING TODAY: President Joe Biden will mark his first 100 days in office with a prime-time address to a joint session of Congress at 8 p.m. EDT.
In his nationally televised speech, Biden is expected to focus on domestic issues with an update on the COVID-19 pandemic and a sales pitch for his massive spending proposals, which include a $2.3 trillion infrastructure plan paid for by raising taxes on corporations, and another $1.8 trillion economic recovery plan that would fund universal preschool, two years of free community college, child care, and monthly payments of at least $250 to parents.
ALSO TODAY: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin departs on a short domestic trip, with stops at the U.S. Space Command in Colorado, the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command in Hawaii, and the U.S. Strategic Command in Nebraska.
Aside from face-to-face meetings with U.S. Space Commander Gen. James Dickinson and U.S. Strategic Commander Adm. Charles Richard, in Hawaii, Austin will preside over the change of command ceremony in which Adm. Philip Davidson will relinquish command to Adm. John Aquilino.
BIDEN’S CONTENTIOUS PICK FOR DOD NO. 3 CONFIRMED: In the end, it didn’t require a tiebreaking vote from the vice president to get Colin Kahl’s hotly contested nomination through the Senate. Instead, all it took was for two Republican senators to be absent because of family emergencies.
When the vote was called late yesterday, the result was a 49-45 vote to confirm Kahl, who was bitterly opposed by Republicans, both for his role in negotiating the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and his acrimonious Twitter tirades as a private citizen during the Trump years, in which he said the GOP showed “death-cult fealty to Trump” and that Republicans were “the party of ethnic cleansing.”
“Kahl is President Biden’s first nominee not to earn a single Republican vote, highlighting how extreme his nomination was and how it broke decades of bipartisan precedent for nominees for top Department of Defense positions,” fumed Sen. Jim Inhofe, lead Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee.
“In his inaugural address, President Biden called for unity. Now, he needs to show that he means it by submitting more balanced candidates for these critical national security jobs,” Inhofe said, while promising “to work in good faith” with the new undersecretary of defense for policy. “I hope Dr. Kahl is an outlier.”
NEW AIR FORCE SECRETARY NOMINATED: The White House yesterday announced another batch of nominees for key national security positions, including Frank Kendall to be Air Force secretary and Gina Ortiz Jones to be undersecretary of the Air Force
The nominations drew immediate praise from the Democratic chairmen of the House and Senate Armed Services committees.
“With more than 40 years of experience in defense and national security, and with a particular focus on acquisition policy during his tenure in the Obama administration, I cannot think of a better, more equipped leader to tackle these issues head on,” Rep. Adam Smith said of Kendall.
“As an Air Force veteran who deployed to Iraq, Gina Ortiz Jones has served her country both in and out of uniform,” Smith said, noting, “If confirmed, Ms. Jones would be the first woman of color to serve as Under Secretary of the Air Force, marking yet another historic nomination.”
Sen. Jack Reed, who was a 1971 graduate of West Point along with Kendall, called the nominations, which include Heidi Shyu, to be the Pentagon’s undersecretary for research and engineering, “a dynamic slate of nominees.”
“Frank Kendall is an outstanding pick to serve as the next Secretary of the Air Force,” Reed said. “He has been confirmed by unanimous consent twice and is an exemplary public servant.”
SHOTS FIRED IN LATEST US-IRAN ENCOUNTER: The U.S. 5th Fleet reported a second confrontation with Iran in the Persian Gulf Monday night, when three armed speed boats from Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy rapidly approached U.S. Navy patrol coastal ship USS Firebolt and U.S. Coast Guard patrol boat USCGC Baranoff at “an unnecessarily close range with unknown intent,” at one point coming within 68 yards of both ships.
“The U.S. crews issued multiple warnings via bridge-to-bridge radio and loud-hailer devices, but the IRGCN vessels continued their close range maneuvers,” said a statement from the Navy. “The crew of Firebolt then fired warning shots, and the IRGCN vessels moved away to a safe distance from the U.S. vessels.”
The Navy also released video of the nighttime encounter, which it said occurred while the U.S. ships were conducting “routine maritime security operations” in international waters.
“We do not assess that this is a new trend,” Cmdr. Rebecca Rebarich, a spokesman for the U.S. 5th Fleet in Bahrain, told the Washington Examiner. “We assess every interaction based on the facts and circumstances.”
“Unsafe and unprofessional activity by the IRGC Navy is not new,” said Pentagon spokesman John Kirby. “It has been a persistent problem for a long time. We don’t see the same sorts of behavior coming out of the Iranian state Navy; this is largely the IRGC and usually their small, fast boats.”
“It remains troublesome, it remains concerning. And it certainly, as we’ve said before, increases the chances for miscalculation.”
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: EXCLUSIVE: ‘Toxic wounds are wounds,’ Jon Stewart says of military veterans and burn pits
Washington Examiner: State Department orders some US Embassy staff to leave Kabul amid onset of troop withdrawal
Washington Examiner: Pentagon readies unmanned Navy but denies it’s about China
Washington Examiner: The ‘dancing embers’ of terrorism in West Africa
Washington Examiner: ‘Utter nonsense’: Blinken defends Kerry from GOP attacks following Iran leak claim
Washington Examiner: Biden’s top security adviser meets Israeli officials amid Kerry-Zarif uproar
Washington Examiner: John Kerry’s possible defense in Iran leak uproar could show he undermined Trump
Washington Examiner: Biden nominates Houston sheriff to lead ICE
Washington Examiner: Biden debuts sweeping operation targeting cartels that smuggle migrants and drugs at border
Washington Examiner: Supreme Court will decide whether waterboarded Gitmo detainee gains insight into CIA black sites
Washington Examiner: Coast Guard Academy’s command master chief abruptly resigns: Report
AP: Navy SEALs to shift from counterterrorism to global threats
USNI News: CENTCOM Commander: U.S. ‘Completely Focused’ On Responsible Afghanistan Withdrawal
Bloomberg: Boeing Pays Pentagon $10.7 Million to Settle Double-Billing Case
Defense One: Biden Taps Frank Kendall To Be Air Force Secretary
USNI News: Russia Tracking First U.S. Coast Guard Cutter Visit To The Black Sea In 12 Years
Breaking Defense: Russian Fleet Protects Iranian Ships Smuggling Arms, Israelis Say
AP: Iran Nuclear Talks Resume In Vienna Amid New Complications
AP: Russian Defense Chief Scoffs At Western Warnings On Ukraine
Reuters: Australia To Upgrade Military Bases, Expand Wargames With U.S.
National Defense Magazine: Navy Chief Aiming for 355-Ship Fleet Despite Calls for Larger Force
Air Force Magazine: UK Planning Big Steps in Future Fighter Development, Wants to Work With USAF’s NGAD
Stars and Stripes: Marine Corps F-35B Fighters Prepare For Indo-Pacific Deployment Aboard Royal Navy Carrier
USNI News: MQ-8B Fire Scout Crashes Into Littoral Combat Ship USS Charleston On Deployment
New York Times: Overhaul Nears In Military Law On Sex Assault
Air Force Magazine: Department of the Air Force to Study Barriers for LGBTQ, Native American Personnel
19fortyfive.com: Israel Keeps Buying A Very Special Type of F-35 Stealth Fighter
Defense One: Opinion: How to Think About Counterinsurgency After Afghanistan
Calendar
WEDNESDAY | APRIL 28
10 a.m. — House Appropriations Homeland Security Subcommittee hearing on “Coast Guard Readiness,” with Adm. Karl Schultz, commandant of the U.S. Coast Guard. http://appropriations.house.gov
10 a.m. — Air Force Research Laboratory commander Brig. Gen. Heather Pringle; and Joel Mozer, chief scientist of the U.S. Space Force; hold roundtable discussion with members of the media. https://afresearchlab.com/
10:30 a.m. — Boeing conference call to release financial results for the first quarter of 2021, with David Calhoun, Boeing president and CEO; and Greg Smith, executive vice president of enterprise operations and CFO. https://investors.boeing.com/investors
11 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Committee hearing on “The Department of Defense’s Financial Improvement and Audit Readiness Plan: FY2020 Audit Results and the Path Forward,” with Douglas Glenn, deputy CFO of the Defense Department; Wesley Miller, senior official performing the duties of the assistant secretary of the Army for financial management/comptroller; Alaleh Jenkins, performing the duties of the assistant secretary of the Navy for financial management/comptroller; and Stephen Herrera, principal deputy assistant secretary of the Air Force for financial management/comptroller. http://www.armedservices.house.gov
11 a.m. — Institute for Defense and Government Advancement virtual 2021 Hypersonic Weapons conference, with Mike White, principal director for hypersonics in the Office of the Defense Undersecretary for Research and Engineering. https://www.idga.org/events-hypersonicweapons
2:30 p.m. 222 Russell — Senate Armed Services Subcommittee on Readiness hearing: “Defense acquisition programs and acquisition reform,” with Stacy Cummings, performing the duties of under secretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment; Raymond O’Toole, acting director, operational test and evaluation, Department of Defense; and Shelby Oakley, director, contracting and national security acquisitions, Government Accountability Office. https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings
2:30 p.m. 232A Russell — Senate Armed Services Subcommittee on Emerging Threats and Capabilities hearing: “U.S. Special Operations Command’s efforts to sustain the readiness of special operations forces and transform the force for future security challenges,” with Maj. Gen. James Glynn, Commander, U.S. Marine Corps Special Operations Command; Rear Adm. Hugh Howard, Commander, Naval Special Warfare Command; Lt. Gen. James Slife, Commander, Air Force Special Operations Command; and Lt. Gen. Francis Beaudette, Commanding General, U.S. Army Special Operations Command. https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings
5 p.m. — Johns Hopkins University Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies virtual seminar: Subtle Dimensions of National Power — The U.S. in a Post-Pandemic World,” with former Defense Secretary Leon Panetta; Carla Freeman, executive director of the SAIS Foreign Policy Institute; and Eliot Cohen, dean of SAIS https://sais.jhu.edu/campus-events
8 p.m. House Chamber, U.S. Capitol — President Joe Biden delivers an address to a joint session of Congress. https://docs.house.gov/floor/
THURSDAY | APRIL 29
9 a.m. — Northrop Grumman conference call to release earnings and financial results for the first quarter of 2021 https://edge.media-server.com
9 a.m. — Atlantic Council webinar: “Putin’s Mediterranean Gambit: Endgame Unclear,” Christopher Bort, National Intelligence Council officer for Russia and Eurasia; Deputy Assistant Defense Secretary for Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia Laura Cooper; and William Wechsler, director of Middle East programs at the Atlantic Council. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/putins-mediterranean-gambit
9 a.m. — Institute for Defense and Government Advancement holds virtual 2021 Hypersonic Weapons conference, with Rear Adm. Tom Druggan, Missile Defense Agency program executive for sea-based weapons systems. https://www.idga.org/events-hypersonicweapons
10 a.m. — Brookings Institution webinar: “Challenges Facing America’s Defense Budget,” with former Defense Department Comptroller Robert Hale, senior executive adviser at Booz Allen Hamilton; Caitlin Talmadge, nonresident senior fellow at Brookings; and Michael O’Hanlon, senior fellow at Brookings. https://www.brookings.edu/events
10 a.m. — House Appropriations Commerce, Justice, Science, and Related Agencies Subcommittee hearing: “Violent Extremism and Domestic Terrorism in America: The Role and Response of DOJ,” with Jill Sanborn, assistant director for the FBI Counterterrorism Division; and Brad Wiegmann, deputy assistant attorney general for the National Security Division. http://appropriations.house.gov
11 a.m. — House Appropriations Defense Subcommittee hearing: “FY2022 United States Navy and Marine Corps Budget,” with Acting Secretary of the Navy Thomas Harker; Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Michael Gilday; and Commandant of the Marine Corps Gen. David Berger. http://appropriations.house.gov
11 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Seapower and Projection Forces Subcommittee and House Foreign Affairs Asia, the Pacific, Central Asia and Nonproliferation Subcommittee joint hearing on “Maritime Security in the Indo-Pacific and the UN Convention for the Law of the Sea,” with retired Navy Adm. Scott Swift; Bonnie Glaser, senior adviser for Asia and director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ China Power Project; and Daniel Russel, vice president for international security and diplomacy at the Asia Society Policy Institute. http://www.armedservices.house.gov
11 a.m. — Woodrow Wilson Center Middle East Program virtual book discussion on “No-Win War: The Paradox of U.S.-Pakistan Relations in Afghanistan’s Shadow,” with author Zahid Hussain. https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/book-launch
11 a.m. — Henry L. Stimson Center webinar: ‘A New Agenda for U.S. Drone Policy and the use of Lethal Force,” with Luke Hartig, fellow at New America; Naz Modirzadeh, founding director of the Harvard Law School Program on International Law and Armed Conflict; Hina Shamsi, director of the American Civil Liberties Union’s National Security Project; and Rachel Stohl, vice president of the Stimson Center. https://www.stimson.org/event/a-new-agenda-for-u-s-drone-policy
3 p.m. — Atlantic Council webinar: “Artificial Intelligence: Realizing a U.S. Strategy for the AI Era,” with National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence Vice Chair Robert Work, president and owner of TeamWork LLC; and National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence Commissioner Safra Catz, CEO of the Oracle Corporation. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event
4:30 p.m. 562 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Subcommittee on Strategic Forces hearing on “U.S. nuclear deterrence policy and strategy,” with Brad Roberts, director Center For Global Security Research Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory; Paul Bracken, professor of management and professor of political science Yale School of Management; retired Gen. Claude Kehler, former commander, U.S. Strategic Command; and Franklin Miller, principal, The Scowcroft Group. https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings
FRIDAY | APRIL 30
8 a.m. EDT Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam, Hawaii — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin presides over a change-of-command ceremony for the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, during which Adm. Philip Davidson will relinquish command to Adm. John Aquilino, currently commander U.S. Pacific Fleet. Also attending will be Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
9:30 a.m. G50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing: “Worldwide threats,” with Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier, director, Defense Intelligence Agency; and Avril Haines, director of national intelligence. https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings/worldwide-threats
10:30 a.m. — Aspen Security Forum virtual event:”The Biden Administration’s first 100 days,” with Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks; former Deputy Secretary of State Steve Biegun; former national security adviser Tom Donilon, chairman of BlackRock Investment Institute; former U.S. Trade Representative Mike Froman, vice chairman and president, strategic growth for Mastercard. https://aspeninst.zoom.us/webinar/register
9 a.m. — Institute for Defense and Government Advancement virtual 2021 Hypersonic Weapons conference, with Gen. Glen VanHerck, commander of North American Aerospace Defense Command and U.S. Northern Command. https://www.idga.org/events-hypersonicweapons
10 a.m. — American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research webinar: “Russian Hybrid Warfare in Europe: Lessons for the U.S,” with Jakub Janda, executive director of European values at the Center for Security Policy; Edward Lucas, senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis; Maria Snegovaya, visiting scholar at George Washington University; Dalibor Rohac, resident scholar at AEI; and Ivana Stradner, fellow at AEI. https://www.aei.org/events/russian-hybrid-warfare
12 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: ‘U.S.-Australian relations and key foreign policy challenges,” with Australian Ambassador to the U.S. Arthur Sinodinos; and Walter Russell Mead, fellow in strategy and statesmanship at Hudson. https://www.hudson.org/events
2 p.m. — Business Council for International Understanding off-the-record and closed press virtual discussion with Marine Gen. Frank McKenzie, commander of the U.S. Central Command. http://www.bciu.org/events/upcoming-events
3:30 p.m. — Washington Post Live event: “The Path Forward: Space Force,” with Gen. John W. “Jay” Raymond, chief of space operations, U.S. Space Force; and David Ignatius, Washington Post columnist. https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live
7 p.m. — National Committee on North Korea webinar: “Nuclear Monitoring and Verification in North Korea, with Mark Schanfein, senior nonproliferation adviser at the Idaho National Laboratory https://www.ncnk.org/event-calendar/webcast
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“There’s no pressure by anyone in the administration to meter up or meter down communications, activities regarding these sorts of incidents.”
Pentagon spokesman John Kirby, denying that an April 2 confrontation between an Iranian patrol boat and U.S. Coast Guard cutter in the Persian Gulf was unpublicized in deference to the Biden administration’s negotiations over rejoining the Iran nuclear deal.
