UNTESTED, BUT OMINOUS: While President Trump misses few opportunities to boast that the U.S. military has the world’s best weapons — including a “super duper” missile that he claims is 17 times faster than any other — North Korea has paraded a super duper missile of its own to mark the Oct. 10 75th anniversary of the founding of the Korea Workers’ Party.
The massive missile, mounted on an 11-axel launch vehicle, was the star of the annual military display in Pyongyang’s central square. “What North Korea has shown us, what appears to be a new liquid-fueled ICBM that seems to be a derivative of what was tested back in late 2017, known as the Hwasong-15, is much bigger and clearly more powerful than anything in the DPRK’s arsenal,” says Harry Kazianis, a Korea expert at the Center for the National Interest. “Such a massive road-mobile missile — likely the biggest such missile on the planet — would have the capability to add either increased range or be able to carry a bigger payload.”
Analysts at the North Korea monitoring site 38 North agree the new missile has been correctly characterized as the world’s largest mobile ICBM, but note that’s in part because “countries with ICBMs generally seek to make their road-mobile ICBMs smaller so they can be more mobile and concealable.”
And the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance says while the new missile “looks good in a parade,” it has not been tested or “proven reliable to have the range of the entire United States of America.”
WHY SO BIG? Opinions vary about North Korea’s motivation for super-sizing its ICBM, which will give it increased range or the ability to carry a bigger payload.
That could potentially allow North Korea to do three things, says Kazianis, “carry a larger and even deadlier nuclear weapon to a target, like a U.S. city or military base, utilize penetration aids to defeat U.S. missile defenses, or install multiple warheads in one missile, what is called multiple independent reentry vehicles, or MIRV technology.”
“This would allow North Korea to fire one missile and attack multiple different targets thanks to having several different warheads in the nosecone of the missile,” he says.
“Perhaps the North’s current nuclear [reentry vehicles] are larger and heavier than we expect, and so the Hwasong-15 cannot carry enough such RVs along with the size of post-boost vehicle,” posit Vann H. Van Diepen and Michael Elleman at 38 North. “Or perhaps the Hwasong-15 can be MIRVed but the North wants to be able to deliver more [multiple independent reentry vehicles] per booster.”
Then again, it could all be for show. “An unexpected ‘super heavy’ ICBM would be a classically Khrushchevian statement of North Korea’s technical prowess, the robustness of its ability to threaten the U.S., and the permanence of its nuclear weapons status,” write Van Diepen and Elleman.
POWERFUL DISPLAY OF MILITARY THEATER: In his speech, Kim Jong Un, dressed in a gray Western-style suit and tie, insisted the weapons on display — which also included a new solid-fueled submarine-launched ballistic missile — were meant as deterrence, not provocation.
“We have built a deterrent with which we can satisfactorily control and manage any military threats that we are facing or may face,” Kim said according to an English language translation on a site that monitors the state-run Korean Central News Agency.
“Our war deterrent, which is intended to defend the rights to independence and existence of our state and safeguard peace in the region, will never be abused or used as a means for preemptive strike,” Kim said. “But, if, and if, any forces infringe upon the security of our state and attempt to have recourse to military force against us, I will enlist all our most powerful offensive strength in advance to punish them.”
DON’T FORGET RUSSIA: As if we needed more reminders that the world is an increasingly dangerous place, the North Korean parade comes one week after Russia successfully tested its new hypersonic anti-ship cruise missile. The Tsirkon hypersonic cruise missile was launched from the Admiral Gorshkov frigate and hit a target in the Barents Sea 290 miles away.
Russia claimed the missile flew at speeds over Mach 8.
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HAPPENING TODAY: The Association of the U.S. Army holds its 2020 annual meeting and exposition, virtually beginning at 10 a.m. with Army Secretary Ryan McCarthy delivering pre-recorded opening remarks.
Then at 10:45 a.m., McCarthy, Army Chief of Staff Gen. James McConville, and Sgt. Major of the Army Michael Grinston brief reporters at the Pentagon. Livestream here.
Other AUSA highlights today include various remarks and seminars from Lt. Gen. Jon Jensen, director of the Army National Guard; E. Casey Wardynski, assistant secretary of the Army for manpower and reserve affairs; Gen. Paul Funk, commanding general of the U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command; Bruce Jette, assistant Army secretary for acquisition, logistics, and technology; and Gen. Edward Daly, commanding general of the Army Materiel Command. Full agenda here.
MILLEY’S CAUTIOUS COMMENTS: President Trump’s surprise tweet last Wednesday that “the small remaining number” of U.S. troops (about 4,500) should be “home by Christmas” is yet another bolt from the blue that blindsided the Pentagon.
In an interview with NPR, Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley said he still believes the withdrawal of all U.S. troops from Afghanistan should be based on conditions, not the calendar.
“We have a plan, a series of responsible drawdown options that has been briefed to the president,” Milley said. “I’m not going to go into specific numbers for the future. I think that would be inappropriate for me as the chairman to talk specific numbers in future operations. We typically don’t do that.”
But Milley conceded that so far, the Taliban have not lived up to their side of the Feb. 29 withdrawal agreement with the U.S., which included a private pledge to reduce the level of violence as peace talks commence.
“In terms of violence, for example, if you start measuring the violence from, call it four or five months ago, has there been a significant reduction in violence? Answer: not significant,” Milley said. But he added, “If you measure it from two to three years ago or five years ago, there has been a significant reduction in violence.”
Just yesterday, U.S. Forces in Afghanistan had to launch airstrikes to come to the aid of Afghan forces pinned down by Taliban fighters, reports the Washington Examiner’s Abraham Mahshie.
“The Taliban need to immediately stop their offensive actions in Helmand Province and reduce their violence around the country. It is not consistent with the US-Taliban agreement and undermines the ongoing Afghan Peace Talks,” said U.S. Afghanistan commander Gen. Scott Miller.
“The key here is that we’re trying to end a war responsibly, deliberately, and to do it on terms that guarantee the safety of the U.S. vital national security interests that are at stake in Afghanistan,” Milley told NPR. “We, the military, are giving our best military advice on those conditions so that the president can make an informed, deliberate, responsible decision.”
“We’re on a plan to do a responsible, deliberate drawdown to about 4,500 here very shortly. And then future drawdowns will be determined by the president,” he said.
O’BRIEN OUT OF THE LOOP: Just hours before Trump’s Wednesday tweet, national security adviser Robert O’Brien said the U.S. would still have 2,500 troops in Afghanistan into early next year.
Asked about the disconnect, Milley said, “I think that Robert O’Brien or anyone else can speculate as they see fit. I’m not going to engage in speculation. I’m going to engage in the rigorous analysis of the situation based on the conditions and the plans that I am aware of and my conversations with the president. And then when we get to the point where we have further discussions and further decisions, those will be appropriately made public.”
TALIBAN BUOYED: A senior Taliban leader reportedly told CBS News yesterday that they are hoping for a Trump victory in next month’s U.S. election so that the withdrawal of American troops will be completed. “We hope he will win the election and wind up U.S. military presence in Afghanistan,” the unnamed leader said.
But CBS reported that a Trump campaign spokesman rejected the Taliban support. “The Taliban should know that the president will always protect American interests by any means necessary,” said campaign spokesman Tim Murtaugh.
ESPER’S INTERIM REPORT CARD: The American Enterprise Institute’s Mackenzie Eaglen says Defense Secretary Mark Esper has made “laudable progress” in managing and refocusing the Pentagon despite the challenges of a global pandemic and a mercurial commander in chief.
“It’s tough to be Secretary of Defense. It’s even tougher to be one for this president, who with a single tweet can upend months and years of careful Pentagon planning, overrule his own executives without their input, and change controversial policies on any issue, no matter how small, in an instant. He can even embarrass or undermine you while you’re trying to run the world’s strongest military,” Eaglen writes in her performance review of the Pentagon chief.
“To his credit, Defense Secretary Mark Esper has accomplished much of what he set out to do behind the scenes and without much fanfare — on top of a global pandemic. The secretary, who took office 15 months ago, has spent the past year attempting to shift 1) dollars, 2) people, and 3) tasks toward his department’s top challenge: long-term competition with China,” Eaglen writes. “Esper gets high marks for the first objective, notable progress in the second, and his successor will have to duke it out with the bureaucracy regarding the third.”
INDUSTRY WATCH: The Space Development Agency has announced that L3Harris and SpaceX have been awarded contracts to develop satellites for the SDA’s Space Sensor Layer. The companies will each build four wide field of view satellites and launch them in 2022 as part of the National Defense Space Architecture’s inaugural tranche.
“The work to be performed under this contract will include on-time delivery of space vehicles and optical wide field of view payloads. Work will be performed in various locations in the continental U.S.,” the SDA said.
The L3Harris contract is valued at $194 million and the SpaceX contract at $149 million.
F-35s, F-18s TO FINLAND IN $27 BILLION DEAL: The State Department has approved the potential sale of 64 Lockheed Martin F-35 Joint Strike Fighter aircraft with air-to-air missiles and air-to-ground precision-guided munitions and related equipment for an estimated cost of $12.5 billion.
The Defense Security Cooperation Agency delivered the required certification notifying Congress of this possible sale Friday, stating, “The proposed sale will replace Finland’s retiring F/A-18s and enhance its air-to-air and air-to-ground self-defense capability,” and provide Finland with a credible defense capability to deter aggression in the region and ensure interoperability with U.S. forces.
In addition, Finland has also been approved to buy 58 Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornet and 14 EA-18G Growler aircraft and weapons and related equipment for an estimated cost of $14.7 billion.
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Taliban continues attacks on Afghan forces in wake of peace talks, US drawdown
Washington Examiner: South Korea doesn’t have to remain allied with US, ambassador warns
Washington Examiner: Finland to buy 64 F-35 fighter jets worth $12.5B
Washington Examiner: ‘Severe escalation’: Turkey sends ship back to coast of Greek island
Washington Post: Iran-backed militias announce ‘conditional’ cease-fire against U.S. in Iraq
Washington Post: Afghans stunned, worried by Trump tweet to bring home U.S. troops early
New York Times: Trump’s Campaign Talk of Troop Withdrawals Doesn’t Match Military Reality
Reuters: White House Moves Forward On Three Arms Sales To Taiwan: Sources
Washington Post: China threatens invasion of Taiwan in new video showing military might
USNI News: Chinese Increasing Nuclear Submarine Shipyard Capacity
USNI News: Panel: Pace Of Navy Freedom Of Navigation Operations Stressing Force
Navy Times: Remember The Cole: Al-Qaida Attacked The Destroyer In Yemen 20 Years Ago Today
Marine Corps Times: Two Men Arrested In Plot To Kidnap Michigan Governor Were Marine Veterans
Air Force Magazine: Pararescuemen Earn Bronze Stars for Bravery in Afghanistan
Washington Post: Trump taps U.S. Marine Band for White House event and raises questions about employing the military for political purposes
Forbes: Report: A Robust Tech Sector Is Critical To U.S. National Security
AP: Specter of election chaos raises questions on military role
Washington Examiner: Opinion: How North Korea’s new missile aims for American fear
Time: Opinion: Here’s Why Trump Has Lost So Much Support in the Active Duty Military
Defense One: Opinion: Esper’s Reforms: An Interim Report Card
Washington Examiner: Roberta McCain, mother of late Sen. John McCain, dies at 108
Calendar
TUESDAY | OCTOBER 13
9 a.m. — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs North Korea Economic Forum annual conference: “Researching North Korea: Sources, Methods, and Pitfalls.” https://elliott.gwu.edu/event-calendar
10 a.m. — Day One of “AUSA Now,” the Association of the U.S. Army’s 2020 virtual annual meeting, with Secretary of the Army Ryan McCarthy, Defense Secretary Mark Esper, Army Chief of Staff Gen. James McConville and other Army leaders. Register at https://meetings.ausa.org/annual/Attendee
10:45 a.m. — McCarthy and McConville will hold a press conference in the Pentagon Briefing Room. Live at https://www.defense.gov/Watch/Live-Events/
10 a.m. — Middle East Institute virtual book discussion, “Losing the Long Game: The False Promise of Regime Change in the Middle East,” with author Philip Gordon, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. https://www.mei.edu/events
10:30 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies webcast: “Mapping the Future of U.S. China Policy: Survey Results and Analysis.” with John Hamre, president and CEO of CSIS; Michael Green, senior vice president for Asia at CSIS; Jude Blanchette, chair in China studies at CSIS; Bonnie Glaser, director of the CSIS China Power Project; Scott Kennedy, senior adviser at CSIS; and Louis Lauter, vice president for congressional and government affairs at CSIS. https://www.csis.org/events/online-event
11 a.m. — Defense One webcast “State of the Navy,” with Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Michael Gilday. https://www.defenseone.com/feature
1 p.m. — Woodrow Wilson Center virtual book discussion: “The Perfect Weapon: War, Sabotage and Fear in the Cyber Age,” with author David Sanger, national security correspondent for the New York Times. https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/perfect-weapon
2 p.m. — Henry L. Stimson Center webinar: “Great Power and Great Responsibility in U.S. Arms Transfers,” with David Fite, senior professional staff member to the House Foreign Relations Committee; Diana Ohlbaum, senior strategist and legislative director for foreign policy at the Friends Committee on National Legislation; Annie Shiel, senior adviser for U.S. policy and advocacy at the Center for Civilians in Conflict; and Rachel Stohl, vice president of Stimson. https://www.stimson.org/event/great-power
3 p.m. — Heritage Foundation webinar: “Behind the Great Wall of Secrecy: China’s Nuclear Buildup,” with State Department Special Presidential Envoy for Arms Control Marshall Billingslea; and Peter Brooks, senior research fellow at Heritage. https://www.heritage.org/arms-control/event
8 p.m. — Politics and Prose Bookstore virtual book discussion: “The United States of War: A Global History of America’s Endless Conflicts, from Columbus to the Islamic State,” with author David Vine, professor of anthropology at American University. https://www.politics-prose.com/event
WEDNESDAY | OCTOBER 14
11 a.m. — U.S. Representative Office of the National Council of Resistance of Iran webinar: “An Effective Iran Policy: Sanctions or No Sanctions?” with former Defense Undersecretary for Policy Eric Edelman; former Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Robert Joseph; James Jay Carafano, vice president of the Heritage Foundation’s Institute for National Security and Foreign Policy; Jonathan Ruhe, director of foreign policy at the Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs; and Alireza Jafarzadeh, deputy director of the Washington office of the National Council of Resistance of Iran. https://ncrius-org.zoom.us/webinar/register
11:30 a.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace webinar: “Conversation on a ReSTART for U.S.-Russian Nuclear Arms Control,” with Alexey Arbatov, head of the Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations’ Center for International Security; former NATO Deputy Secretary-General Rose Gottemoeller, lecturer at Stanford University’s Center for International Security and Cooperation; Pranay Vaddi, fellow in the CEIP Nuclear Policy Program; and James Acton, co-director of the CEIP Nuclear Policy Program. https://carnegieendowment.org
THURSDAY | OCTOBER 15
10 a.m. — Defense Secretary Mark Esper addresses the Association of the U.S. Army’s 2020 virtual annual meeting in pre-recorded remarks. https://meetings.ausa.org
11 a.m. — German Marshall Fund of the United States webinar: “Is the Trump Administration’s Maximum Pressure Campaign Against Iran Working?” with Richard Nephew, senior research scholar at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy; Mark Dubowitz, chief executive of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies; and Ariane Tabatabai, Middle East fellow at the Alliance for Security Democracy. https://www.gmfus.org/events
11 a.m. — Politico virtual Artificial Intelligence (AI) Summit, with Eric Schmidt, chairman of the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence; Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers, R-Wash.; and Nand Mulchandani, acting director of the Defense Department’s Joint Artificial Intelligence Center. https://www.politico.com/live-events
1 p.m. — Middle East Institute virtual discussion with Heidi Grant, director of the Defense Security Cooperation Agency, focusing on U.S. arms sales to the Middle East. https://www.mei.edu/events/mei-defense-leadership-series
2 p.m. — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association virtual Tech Summit, with Navy Rear Adm. John Polowczyk, Joint Staff vice director for logistics; Gil Alterovitz, director of the Veterans Affairs Department National Artificial Intelligence Institute; Thomas Beach, interim chief data officer at the Commerce Department; and Ted Kaouk, chief data officer at the https://connellyworks.swoogo.com
9 p.m. — Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden participates in a town hall forum hosted by ABC News in lieu of the previously scheduled Trump-Biden second presidential debate, with ABC News chief anchor George Stephanopoulos.
FRIDAY | OCTOBER 16
9 a.m. — Aspen Security Forum: “President Trump’s National Security Agenda,” with national security adviser Robert O’Brien and Stephen Hadley, former national security adviser to President George W. Bush. https://aspeninst.zoom.us/webinar/register
9 a.m. — Counter Extremism Project webinar: ‘The Prospect For Peace In Afghanistan,” with Amb. Edmund Fitton-Brown, coordinator, ISIL, al-Qaida and Taliban Monitoring Team, UNSC; and Dr. Ellinor Zeino, country representative, Konrad Adenauer Foundation, Afghanistan. https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
10 a.m. — U.S. Institute of Peace webinar: “Russia’s War in Donbas: Ripe for a Resolution?” with Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Oleksii Reznikov; Ukrainian Ambassador to the U.S. Volodymyr Yelchenko; Orysia Lutsevych, manager of the Chatham House Ukraine Forum; Donald Jensen, director of the USIP office of Strategic Stability and Security; and former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine William Taylor, vice president of the USIP Office of Strategic Stability and Security. https://www.usip.org/events/russias-war-donbas-ripe-resolution
10 a.m. — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs webinar: “What’s New Under the Sun? Nuclear and Military Affairs in U.S.-Russian Relations.” Polina Sinovets, head of the Mechnikov National University’s Center for Nonproliferation; Adam Stulberg, head of Georgia Institute of Technology’s Sam Nunn School of International Affairs; Mikhail Troitskiy, associate professor at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations; and Dmitry Gorenburg, senior research scientist at CNA. https://elliott.gwu.edu/event-calendar
1 p.m. — Air Force Association Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Space Power Forum with Lt. Gen B. Chance Saltzman, deputy chief of space operations for operations, cyber, and nuclear, U.S. Space Force. https://www.mitchellaerospacepower.org
3 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies webcast: “Innovation in the Intelligence Community.” with Rep. Jim Himes, D-Conn. https://www.csis.org/events/online-event
TUESDAY | OCTOBER 20
1 p.m. — Center for a New American Security Fireside Chat with Brett Goldstein, director, Defense Digital Service, with CNAS senior fellows Susanna Blume and Paul Scharre. https://cnas.zoom.us/webinar/register
THURSDAY | OCTOBER 22
9 a.m. — Northrop Grumman Corporation conference call to announce its third quarter 2020 financial results. http://investor.northropgrumman.com
FRIDAY | OCTOBER 30
5:30 p.m. — Air Force Association virtual discussion “Airmen in the Fight: AFA Roll Call” with Gen. Stephen “Seve” Wilson, Air Force vice chief of staff. https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“We don’t swear an oath of allegiance to an individual, a king, a queen, a president, or anything else. We don’t swear an oath of allegiance to a country, for that matter. We don’t swear an oath of allegiance to a flag, a tribe, a religion, or any of that. We swear an oath to an idea or a set of ideas and values that are embedded in our Constitution.”
Army Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, in an interview with NPR’s Morning Edition.
